Five Nuggets questions to mull over as the NBA season ramps back up

On March 11, the NBA went on hold.

The unprecedented news came down right as the second half of what would be a 113-97 Nuggets loss to the Dallas Mavericks was tipping off, but what happened on the court throughout the third and fourth quarters remains fuzzy.

Nuggets executives moved quickly behind the scenes and successfully rerouted the team plane, which was scheduled to fly to San Antonio that night to continue a three-game road trip, back to Denver. League decision-makers were glued to their phones throughout the night, trying to determine what would come next for the NBA.

Eighty-five days later we have our answer.

The NBA Board of Governors approved a format to restart the 2019-20 season Thursday afternoon with 22 teams — the eight current playoff teams from each conference along with the Wizards, Pelicans, Trail Blazers, Kings, Spurs, and Suns — returning to play. They agreed on a tentative start date of July 31 at Disney World in Orlando, Florida.

Once the 22 teams arrive in Orlando, all teams will play eight “seeding games,” which will act as regular-season games before a potential play-in tournament for the eighth seed in each conference. Then, 16 teams will play the traditional East/West playoff format featuring eight teams in each conference and seven-game series every round.

Here are five questions to mull over in the lead-up to July 31.

What happens prior to July 31?

Yes, the NBA has a plan, but we’re still around two months from games resuming. So what happens over the next 60 days?

First off, players will gradually return to their home markets. Denver had just a few players in town — Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Paul Millsap, and Vlatko Cancar — for most of the hiatus, but now Gary Harris, Monte Morris, Michael Porter Jr., and PJ Dozier are back in Denver. Expect more players to filter back to town over the coming days and weeks.

The Nuggets will continue to hold individual workouts at Pepsi Center and adhere to the social distancing and safety guidelines implemented by the league. Training camps are reportedly scheduled to open June 30 at practice facilities, and teams will fly to Orlando on July 7, three weeks before the resumption of the season. Some teams could have to quarantine once they arrive in Florida for a set amount of time. Currently, all individuals entering the state of Florida from the New York Tri-State Area (Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York) must isolate or quarantine for 14 days.

Scrimmages and, or exhibition games will likely take place at Disney World as teams ramp-up their 5-on-5 practices. Here’s the tentative timeline, as reported by The Athletic’s Shams Charania.

Where will teams stay, and what types of facilities will they have access to? The league is yet to announce formal plans, but we took a detailed look into the three arenas on the ESPN Wide World of Sports campus at Disney World where games and practices will take place and one resort that could house teams. 

How will the Nuggets fare in their eight “seeding games”?

The league said Thursday that the eight games will be “selected from (team’s) remaining regular-season matchups.” Yahoo Sports’ Vincent Goodwill reported that the league’s plan is for teams to play the next eight games on their current 2019-20 season schedule, and if a team is scheduled to play an opponent who won’t be at Disney World that game is skipped.

These are the Nuggets’ eight opponents in order if that format holds.

Spurs

Lakers

Clippers

Thunder

Raptors

Heat

Spurs

Thunder

Keep an eye on the second matchup against the Spurs and Denver’s seventh overall “seeding game.” San Antonio could be out of contention for the play-in tournament by then.

What type of shape are the Nuggets in?

If games resume July 31, which for now the NBA is describing as a “tentative date,” there will have been 142 days between games. There were 112 days between Game 6 of the 2019 Finals and the first preseason game of the 2019-20 season, so the NBA’s current hiatus has lasted longer than last year’s offseason.

What type of shape are the Nuggets in? Strength and conditioning coach Felipe Eichenberger put together an online workout program that Nuggets players have been closely following since the start of the hiatus. Some players have also had access to Peloton bikes and weights to stay in shape at home. For players in Denver, Pepsi Center has been open for social distancing workouts for the last few weeks. But players who haven’t been in Denver for most of the hiatus, like Harris and Dozier, have had access to private gyms for workouts as well.

The Nuggets All-NBA big man has stayed in shape too, according to Denver’s head coach and president of basketball operations.

“Nikola, before the season was suspended, had lost close to 25-30 pounds maybe…and he’s maintained that, if not improved,” Michael Malone said this week on Altitude Sports Radio. “If there are reports out there of a 6-11 lean, mean fighting machine Serbian walking around, I believe it because I’ve seen it.”

Tim Connelly added that Jokic is “beach ready.”

On @AltitudeSR, Tim Connelly said Nikola Jokic is “beach ready” and has “abs.”

— Adam Mares (@Adam_Mares) June 4, 2020

Can the Nuggets win it all?

There’s plenty of chatter that championship will come with an asterisk, so how about this take about whoever captures the Larry O’Brien trophy at Disney World:

Winning this year’s NBA Championship will be a badge of honor. The road to the 2020 Championship will be the most grueling and toughest path to a title that any NBA team has ever encountered. Teams will be in adverse conditions at Disney World when it comes to practices, games, and daily life. Players and team personnel will be locked down in Orlando from the middle of July at the beginning of October. The NBA Finals would end no later than Oct. 12, the league said Thursday.

Games could be played every other day due to the truncated playoff window that the league will be operating within. Typically in a playoff format, teams could have three days off in between games and even more time off in between playoff rounds.

The Nuggets are as confident as ever in their chances, something that isn’t too big of a surprise based on what percolated out of Denver’s locker room throughout the season.

“Our guys are ready to make a real push for the NBA championship,” Connelly said this week. “We really believe that we can win it all this year.”

The Nuggets currently have the eighth-best odds to win the championship at 25/1.

Who’s the Nuggets preferred Round 1 opponent?

We’ve been so locked into a potential Nuggets/Rockets first-round series that I haven’t given too much thought into Denver’s other potential first-round matchups. But any of them outside of the Clippers are more appealing than a date with James Harden.

With eight games to play before the playoffs, the Nuggets could, in theory, overtake the Lakers as the one seed, but that’s highly unrealistic considering Los Angeles currently has a 5.5 game lead over Denver heading into the eight “seeding games.” The Nuggets could also drop all the way to the seven seed but not to the eighth, meaning that there’s no scenario where Denver could be involved in the play-in tournament for the eighth seed.

Officially, the Nuggets have clinched a playoff berth for the second-straight season.

I’d have to think that Western Conference teams will be jockeying for the chance to face the Jazz in Round 1. Utah limped into the hiatus and lost second-leading scorer Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20.2 points per game to season-ending surgery during the break. The Mavericks and Thunder would also be more favorable first-round matchups for Denver than Houston.

In terms of a playoff rotation, we’ve bantered about the topic on DNVR over the last few weeks. Here’s my take.

Locks to start the playoffs in the rotation (7)

Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Paul Millsap, Will Barton, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Monte Morris

Near locks (2)

Torrey Craig, Mason Plumlee

On the outside looking in (5)

Michael Porter Jr., Troy Daniels, Keita Bates-Diop, Noah Vonleh, Vlatko Cancar

One detail the league needs to iron out is if playoff rosters will be expanded to include two-way players. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, two-way players are not eligible for the postseason, so PJ Dozier and Bol Bol might not travel to Disney World as the league is aiming to keep the team’s traveling parties as small as possible. According to ESPN, the NBA will allow 35 people from each team in Orlando.

But the Nuggets could convert one of Dozier or Bol’s contract (likely Dozier’s) to a standard NBA contract, which would make him eligible for the playoffs. Currently, the Nuggets have one open roster spot.