Why Sean Payton promoted Jarrett Stidham to be the Denver Broncos' starting quarterback over Russell Wilson

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos have a new quarterback.

“He’s a guy that I’m anxious to see play,” head coach Sean Payton said. “If I didn’t feel like he gave us the chance to win, then we wouldn’t be making that move.”

The Broncos’ new quarterback is Jarrett Stidham, the 27-year-old former fourth-round draft pick of the New England Patriots.

“He’s someone who has really good poise,” Payton said. “He has really good feet. You see his arm strength and decision-making.”

Stidham’s promotion might mean Russell Wilson’s time in Denver is closing, after nearly two seasons as the team’s starter. The Broncos traded multiple first-round picks, multiple second-round picks and starters to acquire Wilson in 2022. They gave him a monster five-year extension worth nearly $250 million that won’t kick in until next year.

Despite the investment, Payton decided that the time had come to try a new signal-caller. According to Payton, Wilson will get a uniform in the final two games and serve as the Broncos’ backup. The plan is for Stidham to play out the remainder of the season.

Wilson’s future is still unclear.

“We’ll handle the long-term when we get there, but we’re not there,” Payton said. “We’re trying to find a way to get this eighth win, and then if we’re able to do that, then obviously, we have another important game next weekend.”

Following Sunday’s loss to the Patriots, the Broncos’ playoff hopes are on life support. Even if they win each of their two remaining games, they’d still need plenty of luck to participate in the postseason. Losing either game would eliminate all hope.

Payton said Stidham, who has started two games in his career, gives the Broncos the best chance to win those games.

“I’m just interested in winning,” Payton said. “It doesn’t matter how. When you do this for this long a period, that’s all you’re interested in because there’s nothing like it.”

While Payton says finances played no part in the decision, the economic implications are massive.

If the Broncos decide to part ways with Wilson after this season, the 35-year-old quarterback will leave with $124 million in cash from the Broncos in exchange for two years of service. Only $39 million has hit the Broncos’ salary cap sheet, which leaves $85 million still to be accounted for. If the Broncos release Wilson, that $85 million in dead cap space will be split over the next two seasons.

The kicker is the guarantees tied to Wilson’s 2025 salary of $37 million.

If Wilson is on the team in mid-March of 2024, his 2025 salary becomes fully guaranteed.

Also, if the Broncos release Wilson while he’s injured, that 2025 salary becomes guaranteed.

Therefore, if Wilson were to sustain an injury in the final two weeks of the season and remained injured through mid-March, the Broncos would have to give him his 2025 salary regardless of whether he’s on the team.

So, if the Broncos wanted to move on from Wilson, but he was injured, the quarterback would leave town with $161 million from his two years as a Bronco, and Denver would need to account for $122 million in dead cap space over the next two seasons.

Payton may be telling the truth when he says Stidham gives the team the best chance to win, but it’s hard to ignore that the path is now clear for the Broncos to move on from Wilson this offseason. The injury guarantee can’t derail that plan if the Broncos don’t put Wilson in a situation to be injured.

“There’s always risk, but I think as a head coach, you have to make some tough decisions, and they’re not always going to be right,” Payton said. “They just aren’t. You trust your instincts, and you go by what you feel. Those have been good for me and served me well over the years.”

Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report took the story a step further.

Schultz reported Wednesday that the Broncos approached Wilson’s representation with an ultimatum in October: either agree to remove the injury guarantees or lose your starting job.

According to Schultz, the first conversation happened just after the Broncos’ win over the Chiefs on Oct. 29. That game was the second in a five-game winning streak.

Wilson liked Schultz’s tweet explaining the situation, apparently co-signing it as factual.

Troy Renck of Denver7 added that the Broncos wanted to push back the mid-March guarantee date in Wilson’s contract to late summer. This would allow Wilson more time to recover if he was injured and also allow him the chance to compete for a job in training camp.

Regardless, Payton was adamant that his decision was based purely on football, not on Wilson’s contract. He said the offense needed a spark, and a quarterback change was the best option.

“Ultimately, our job is to get the ball in the end zone, and we have to be more efficient doing that—all of us,” he said. “I can’t replace the entire offensive line. I can’t bring in five new receivers. If it continues over a period of time, there will be another guy here talking to you, as well. These are difficult decisions.”

Stidham backed up Tom Brady as a rookie in New England in 2019. In 2020, he backed up Cam Newton. In 2021, he backed up first-round rookie Mac Jones.

The Raiders traded a sixth-round pick for Stidham and a seventh-round pick ahead of the 2022 season. He backed up Derek Carr for most of the year but started the final two games because Carr had an injury guarantee, and the Raiders didn’t want to risk being unable to move on from him the following offseason.

Stidham was asked about being in a similar situation again this season.

“I guess they’re similar, but they’re different as well,” Stidham said on Wednesday during his first press conference as the Broncos’ starting quarterback. “It just goes back to preparing like I have been throughout my entire career. Nothing this week changes.”

One major difference is that Wilson will serve as Stidham’s backup, while Carr was sent home for the final two weeks of the season last year.

“I can’t speak highly enough of Russ,” Stidham said. “Tremendous teammate. Tremendous competitor. I’ve been extremely fortunate in my career to be around some incredible human beings and incredible quarterbacks, and he obviously fits that category. Today, obviously, it’s a tough day, but we had great interaction today.”

Payton signed Stidham almost immediately after free agency began in March. He said Stidham’s work in last season’s final two games excited the staff.

Stidham is on a two-year deal worth $10 million, which means he’ll be with the Broncos next season. The rest of the quarterback room is up in the air—he could be competing with a rookie, another veteran, or even Wilson, although that appears unlikely—and he’ll get his first audition for the starting job over the next two weeks.

Payton acknowledged the opportunity that Stidham has been granted.

“I think it’s significant,” Payton said. “He understands it. He came here to compete. These guys are competitive by nature. They haven’t gotten to this level without that confidence in themselves. He’s going to want to play well, and that’s the trait most of these players at this level in our league have.”

Stidham isn’t worried about next year.

“I’m not really focused too much down the road,” Stidham said. “The only thing even remotely down the road that I’m concerned about is having a little baby boy in April. Right now, I’m focused on this week against the Chargers.”

While Stidham takes the field against the Chargers, Wilson will serve as a backup in a regular-season game for the first time in his 12-year NFL career.

“Any time decisions like this are made, the first thing I think about is, ‘What could I have done better to help?'” All-Pro safety Justin Simmons said. “You never want to see anyone lose their job. From my perspective, defensively, I just wish there was more that we could have done to be able to help. Russ has been a great teammate. He’s been an amazing person, as you all know. This is not the end of him by any means.”