Who will be Colorado's quarterback in 2020? We put odds on the candidates

For better or for worse, Steven Montez is gone.

That means that, for the first time in quite a while, Colorado’s QB1 job is wide open.

These are the candidates:

A freshman: 50%

Mel Tucker has leeway.

Of course he wants to win a bunch of games in 2020, but he isn’t going to be run out of town because of another 5-win season. His seat is nowhere near hot and nearly everybody inside and outside of the program recognizes that rebuilding the Buffs will take a few years.

Enter Brendon Lewis.

The 6-foot-3, 209-pound dual-threat quarterback is ranked 18th in the country at his position, per 247Sports’ composite rankings. He’s the Buffs’ third-best prospect in this recruiting cycle. On Dec. 18, he will become the highest-rated quarterback to sign with Colorado since recruiting rankings debuted in 2000.

He was the first-team all-state quarterback in Texas 4A ball as a sophomore, his first as a starter. In his three years, he’s thrown 103 touchdowns and ran in 39 more. He’s averaged over 10 yards per passing attempt and nearly 8 yards per rush. He’s only thrown 17 interceptions.

But he just turned 18 on Sunday. That means he’d play an entire season of Pac-12 football as an 18-year-old if he gets the starting nod in 2020.

That didn’t stop Arizona State head coach Herm Edwards, though.

This year, true freshman Jayden Daniels won the starting quarterback job in the Sun Devils’ fall camp. He won seven games, including upsets of No. 18 Michigan State, No. 15 Cal and No. 6 Oregon. Now he’s prepping to take on Florida State in the Sun Bowl.

Daniels was a higher-rated prospect out of high school than Lewis is, but the path for a freshman dual-threat to find success in the Pac-12 has been paved.

If there was ever a time to give an 18-year-old the keys to the Colorado offense, it’s right now.

A grad transfer: 40%

If Mel Tucker isn’t ready to put Brendon Lewis in charge, bringing in a graduate transfer quarterback to take the reigns is the most likely option.

Even if Lewis is the guy, a grad transfer could be on the table.

Graduate transfers are college football players who still have at least one year of NCAA eligibility but earned their degree and are therefore immediately eligible to play at their new school. Arlington Hambright and Mikial Onu were both grad transfers for CU this year.

Since graduates don’t have to sit out a year, they’re perfect to patch a hole for one season. For the Buffs, that means letting Lewis redshirt in 2020, then become a potential four-year starter beginning in 2021.

A grad transfer may not necessarily be the starter, either. Tucker may be able to lure a veteran quarterback in by offering the opportunity to compete with Lewis for the starting job. Then, even if Lewis wins, Tucker has a competent backup waiting in case things don’t go as planned.

One likely target is South Carolina’s Jake Bentley.

Bentley was a four-star recruit out of high school and lived up to the hype for the Gamecocks. He started three seasons and his lowest quarterback rating was 130.7. He ranked fourth in the SEC in touchdowns and passing yards twice. He set all-time records for South Carolina.

But in the first game of this season, his senior year, Bentley was hurt and he didn’t play again. The play of the Gamecocks’ other quarterbacks likely would have meant competition for the starting job in 2020, so, earlier this month, Bentley announced his decision to transfer.

There will be plenty of suitors for Bentley’s services, but expect the Buffs to be among them. He’s a potential NFL prospect and would be a lock to start for Colorado next fall.

The competition is why the grad transfer possibility is lower than starting Brendon Lewis. There’s virtually no doubt that landing a veteran quarterback would be the ideal path for Colorado but actually finding a fit can be tough.

And even if the Buffs do land one, there’s still the possibility that Lewis wins the starting job anyway.

A guy already on the roster: 10%

Steven Montez’s 2019 season was disappointing. Sometimes he looked like an NFL-bound quarterback, at other points he looked like the worst player on the field.

Through all of the lows, though, we never really saw the guys behind him on the depth chart. If Mel Tucker thought one of the quarterbacks on the roster was the next QB1 in Boulder, they likely would have seen the field just a little bit more.

The first appearance for one of Colorado’s backup quarterbacks was with 3:18 to go against Oregon in the sixth game of the season. The Buffs were already down 45-3.

That game was a prime opportunity to get a young quarterback some reps, if you thought that was necessary. Either Tyler Lytle or Blake Stenstrom could’ve come in for the entire fourth quarter—or even earlier—to gain real college football experience in a game that was already decided.

The same scenario played out a week later against Washington State.

Not only were there garbage-time situations where Lytle or Stenstrom could gain experience, there were also opportunities to straight-up bench Steven Montez. The coaching staff never did. That’s Mel Tucker saying that, even at his worst, Steven Montez was clearly the Buffs’ best option under center.

There isn’t much tape on either guy from this season. Lytle was injured after just one pass attempt. Stenstrom completed one of three passes, for 12 yards, and threw an interception. He also had a crucial 27-yard run against USC while Montez was hurt on the sideline.

Either Lytle or Stenstrom could be the next man under center for Colorado, but either one would need to take steps forward in the offseason. The most likely path for either to take the job is for Colorado to miss out on the grad transfers and for one of them to beat out Lewis.

Or—knock on wood—a string of injuries hits and Stenstrom or Lytle becomes the next man up.