What's at stake for the Buffs in Week 6 of Pac-12 play?

BOULDER – It’s time to talk scenarios.

The Colorado Buffaloes are undefeated heading into the final week before the Pac-12 Championship Game. With that information in mind, it’d be easy to assume that a win would give the Buffs a berth in that title game, but COVID-19 flareups across the conference have turned this season into chaos and sorting through the championship scenarios is no small task.

Here’s what’s on the schedule.

Colorado will take on Utah Friday night at Folsom Field–though reports have surfaced indicating that the game could be moved into FOX’s Big Noon timeslot, which would put the Buffs in front of one of the largest audiences of the weekend. The game would be played at 10 a.m. MST.

#Pac12 sources: Utah-Colorado game under consideration (by FOX) for a move to Saturday … and the Big Noon slot

— Jon Wilner (@wilnerhotline) December 9, 2020

If the Buffs win, and some other stuff breaks the right way across the conference, Colorado will play next Friday night in the Pac-12 Championship Game. The team with the best conference record will host the title game, and if the Buffs make the game, they’ll likely host it in Boulder, though there’s always uncertainty about how the Pac-12 will proceed.

The 10 teams in the conference that don’t play in the title game will be paired off and will play games on Saturday, the day after the title game. Initially, those games were supposed to be inter-divisional matchups between teams that finish in the same spot–the No. 2 from the South plays the No. 2 from the North, same with the No. 3s and so on.

But a hefty amount of cancellations throughout the season could change that plan. The rivalry game between Washington and Washington State was canceled and the Pac-12 may see more value in playing the Apple Cup, which has been played every single year since 1945, than lining up the two teams against South Division opponents.

In short, we don’t really know what to expect from Week 7, other than that there will be a Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday and five other Pac-12 matchups to be determined that will be played on Saturday.

How the Buffs make the Pac-12 Championship Game

The Pac-12 laid out how teams will qualify for the 2020 Pac-12 Championship game just before the season started; the North Division team with the best conference record and the the South Division with the best conference record will play each other. Whichever of those two teams has the better conference record gets to play host.

It’s simple… at least in theory.

Game cancellations have thrown off some of the numbers; through Week 5, some teams have played five games and one has only played two. The Pac-12 planned for this possibility by outlining caveats and tiebreaking procedures.

The big caveat for the Buffs is this one: If any team is tied with the first place finisher in the loss column and within one game in the win column, those teams are considered tied.

USC, if it wins on Saturday, will finish 5-0.

Colorado, if it wins on Friday, will finish 4-0.

USC has the better record, but the teams are considered tied.

The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head winner, but the USC-CU matchup was canceled due to an outbreak at USC. Eventually, under the scenario where both teams win this weekend, USC takes the tiebreaker, meaning they would take the South Division’s berth in the Pac-12 Championship.

If Colorado wins and USC loses, then CU makes the championship.

But there’s more…

The Pac-12 also installed a sort of doomsday guidelines; if the average number of conference games played this season by Pac-12 teams drops to four, then the top two finishers in the conference–not the top finisher in each division–would play in the Pac-12 Championship. In this scenario, Colorado and USC would play in the title game if they both win this weekend.

For the number to fall to four, which would allow for the CU-USC championship scenario, three of six Pac-12 games would need to be canceled this week.

(NOTE: On Saturday’s DNVR Buffs Postgame I said that you’d need five cancellations in Week 6 for this  scenario to happen. I was wrong. I forgot that if the average is under 4.50, the Pac-12 will round down to four, which would invoke this scenario.)

Washington paused team activities Wednesday because of COVID. If that game is canceled, only two more would need to be canceled.

And, in theory, the Buffs could stage an outbreak to get their game cancelled as well, if there were two other cancellations. I don’t think this option would even be on the table in the Buffs’ athletic department, but a shadier program might take advantage.

There would be risk involved though, as the Pac-12 could pair off the healthy and newly-opponentless teams, meaning that more than three games would be played despite the cancellations.

Who’s playing who in Week 6

Colorado, as mentioned above, is taking on Utah. If Colorado wins and USC loses, the Buffs will host the Pac-12 Championship.

USC is playing UCLA. The Bruins are playing the best football they’ve played since Chip Kelly took over, but you could say the same with the Trojans and Clay Helton. If USC wins, the Trojans will host the Pac-12 Championship and the Buffs won’t play in the game unless there are six Pac-12 teams that don’t play conference opponents this week.

USC will also play in the Pac-12 Championship if Colorado loses, but it may not host the game if there are three games canceled.

In the north, Oregon is scheduled to play Washington and the winner would go to the Pac-12 Championship. If the game can’t be played, which is very possible given Washington’s current situation, Washington would play in the championship, assuming at least four Pac-12 games are played this weekend.

And the “All Hell Breaks Loose” scenario…

For the sake of this scenario, we’re assuming that at least four Pac-12 games will be played this weekend in this section.

As noted above, Washington would go to the Pac-12 title game if it can’t play this week… but what if the Huskies still aren’t healthy enough to play by next Friday, when the Pac-12 Championship Game is scheduled.

And there’s more: King County, where the University of Washington is located, requires anybody who has been in close contact with an infected individual to quarantine for 14 days. The Pac-12 Championship is scheduled to be played less than 14 days after we learned of the Huskies’ outbreak.

Per source, King County has yet to support new CDC recommendations on close contact quarantines (10 days, or seven with negative test). Still 14 days for close contacts. https://t.co/CKW2YrBNn5

— Mike Vorel (@mikevorel) December 9, 2020

As far as I could tell, the Pac-12 hasn’t laid out a protocol for the possibility of a team in the championship being required to back out.

Would the Pac-12 give the spot to the second-place north team, Oregon, which would have a 3-2 record, assuming it didn’t find another opponent to replace Washington this weekend?

Or would the Pac-12 give the spot to the second-highest finisher overall, the 5-0 Buffaloes, assuming they beat Utah this weekend?

The answer is that we don’t know. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pac-12 doesn’t know yet either.

And in the 2020 Pac-12 football season, I’m willing to bet that the scenario that will ultimately unfold will be the one that nobody has prepared for.