What's at stake for CU with three games remaining in the season?

BOULDER — Sorry hoops fans, basketball season is almost over.

With three games left on the schedule, the Colorado Buffaloes find themselves in a surprisingly rosy position following a five-game winning streak. The Buffs are sitting in fifth place in the Pac-12, thanks to a 10-7 record in conference play and they could still earn a bye in the Pac-12 Tournament.

Here’s what the postseason outlook is for Colorado right now:

What’s the best-case scenario for the Pac-12 Tournament?

Since joining the Pac-12 Conference in 2011, Colorado has only earned a bye in the Pac-12 Tournament. That was last season, when the Buffs finished in third place in the conference.

Prior to Thursday’s games, the Buffs are in fifth place and within shouting distance of a top-four seed and the bye that comes with it. Here’s a look at the standings:

1. #2 Arizona (14-1)
2. #16 USC (12-4)
3. #12 UCLA (12-4)
4. Oregon (10-6)
5. Colorado (10-7)
6. Washington (8-7)
7. Stanford (8-9)
8. Washington State (7-8)
9. Arizona State (6-10)
10. Utah (4-13)
11. Cal (4-13)
12. Oregon State (1-14)

(Note: Washington and Washington State will face off Wednesday night, after this story is published.)

While CU could still, technically, fall behind Stanford (7th), Washington State (8th) or Arizona State (9th), the odds, and the tiebreakers, are in the Buffs’ favor. So we’re going to ignore those teams an everybody below the.

Moving into the top three is impossible because of tiebreakers, so we can ignore those teams as well.

That leaves Oregon, Washington and, of course, the Buffs as the key players for CU fans the rest of the way.

The path to the No. 4 spot is fairly simple: win more total games than Oregon the rest of the way, OR win the same number of games as Oregon and beat Arizona on the way.

The tiebreaker between Oregon and Colorado will be the best record against the top team of the conference, and then to No. 2, then No. 3, etc. until the tie is broken. Oregon has wins over USC and UCLA but not over top-ranked Arizona, which means Colorado must win the game with Arizona to take the tiebreaker with Oregon, and therefore take the bye if the teams are tied.

The kicker here is that Colorado has three games left and Oregon has four, giving the Ducks one more chance to get a win.

Here’s the remaining schedule for Oregon: vs. UCLA, vs. USC, @ UW, @WSU.

Here’s the remaining schedule for CU: vs. ASU, vs. UA, @Utah.

That’s a tricky stretch run for Oregon and CU has two very winnable games. I’d guess the Ducks finish 3-1 or 2-2, while the Buffs finish 2-1. That would give the 4th spot to Oregon.

Here is how the Buffs can take the fourth seed:

1. Colorado finished 3-0 and Oregon finishes 3-1 or worse.
2. Colorado finishes 2-1 with a win over Arizona and Oregon finishes 2-2 or worse.
3. Colorado finishes 2-1 without beating Arizona and Oregon finishes 1-3 or worse.
4. Colorado finishes 1-2 with a win over Arizona and Oregon finishes 1-3 or worse.
5. Colorado finishes 1-2 without beating Arizona and Oregon finishes 0-4.

The Ducks have control of the situation but an ugly weekend against the LA schools could set the stage for some drama next weekend.

For Colorado to fall behind sixth-place Washington, the Huskies would probably have to go on a run. The two teams are tied in the loss column, but Washington still has five games left while the Buffs only have three.

The Huskies will play: @ WSU, vs. WSU, vs. UCLA, vs. Oregon, vs. OSU.

If Colorado and UW lose the same number of games, despite playing a different number of games, the same tiebreaker noted above will apply, since the two teams split the season series. The tiebreaking scenarios are more complicated here since Washington still has another game to play against UCLA. But here’s a basic outline:

• Colorado would own the tiebreaker with a win over Arizona, if not then…
• Washington would own the tiebreaker with a win over UCLA, if not then…
• Colorado would own the tiebreaker thanks to either a Washington loss to Oregon or the Buffs’ season sweep of Stanford

As it stands today, Colorado will probably finish in fifth place in the Pac-12… though a fourth-place finish is more likely than sixth.

Can the Buffs make the NCAA Tournament?

The simplest way for Colorado to make the NCAA Tournament is to win the Pac-12 Tournament March 9-12 in Las Vegas, earning the conference’s auto-bid.

But they could have a shot at the NCAA Tournament with a strong finish to the season.

For context, the Pac-12 has averaged 4.33 March Madness teams per season since the Buffs entered the conference a decade ago. But, as you can see below, the conference has only hit that mark once in the past four tournaments.

2021: 5
2020: COVID
2019: 3
2018: 3
2017:4
2016: 7
2015: 4
2014: 6
2013: 5
2012: 2

Considering the Pac-12’s lackluster non-conference performance, three or four teams is probably a safe bet, and an outsider—like Colorado—would have to make a strong push to earn a fourth bid for the conference. (68 teams make the tournament, 32 of which earn the auto-bid from their conference.)

When the committee selects the 36 at-large teams, they factor in a variety of different pieces of information. None is more important than NET Ranking, which is a computer generated catch-all stat that ranks every Division I team based off of their wins and losses, weighted by where the game was played and the ranking of the team they beat.

In Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology for ESPN from Tuesday, Lunardi named the following teams as the last to earn a bid and the first ones to miss out:

Last four in:
Michigan (NET #33, prior to Wednesday’s games)
Indiana (43)
Memphis (44)
San Diego State (30)

FIRST EIGHT OUT:
SMU (45)
BYU (53)
Oklahoma (50)
Dayton (51)
Florida (55)
Kansas State (63)
Oregon (66)
St. Bonaventure (84)

Colorado is currently #81 in the NET Rankings, which is pretty clearly outside of the current bubble conversation. Each win down the stretch could bump Colorado up 5-10 spots or even more, depending on who they beat, how much they win by and whether the game was played at home. If CU wins the rest of its regular-season games, it would be easy to see them sitting around No. 50 and in the bubble conversation. A couple of wins in the conference tournament could bump the Buffs up even higher and into the tournament.

The win over No. 2 Arizona would be doing the bulk of the work in the above scenario. It’s tough to see a path to March Madness that doesn’t include a win over Arizona or a Pac-12 Tournament title. It may be possible, but it seems unlikely.

The NET Rankings aren’t the end-all be-all, but they’re a huge factor and the easiest way to gauge what the committee sees. Colorado’s narrow margins of victory against weak non-conference opponents won’t look good in the eyes of the committee and their inability to win against top-tier teams (Tennessee, UCLA, USC, Arizona) hurt them as well.

But the resume isn’t complete yet and the committee loves to see teams that come alive at the right time. If Colorado climbs onto the bubble, they’ll fit that bill better than just about anybody in the country.

It’s always tough to predict the committee’s decisions but here are the two paths I see for CU:

1. Win the conference tournament
   OR
2. Win the final three regular-season games, make the Pac-12 semifinal at least, and hope the committee gives you a bubble spot

While the path to the tournament is narrow for Colorado, it’s a lot wider than it was just a week or two ago.