What to watch for when Colorado takes on Creighton in the NCAA Tournament

BOULDER — MARCH!!!

The Colorado Buffaloes’ women’s basketball team (22-8) will take on the Creighton Bluejays (20-9) Friday morning at 11:30 a.m. in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. The game will be played in Iowa City, less than four hours from Creighton’s campus in Omaha. It will be broadcast on ESPNEWS. Colorado is making its first appearance in the tournament since 2013.

The Buffs earned a No. 7 seed while Creighton is a 10 seed, but the Buffs are only three spots better in the NET Rankings, sitting at No. 29. Colorado is a 2.5-point favorite. The winner will play again on Sunday against on the winner of No. 2 Iowa (23-7) and No. 15 Illinois State (19-13).

Colorado and Creighton are polar opposites on the basketball court and dictating the style of game that is played will be crucial to either team’s success. Colorado wants to play slow and methodically, while Creighton pushes the tempo and scores at the fifth-best per-possession rate in the country. Vegas is split on whose style will dictate the play, setting the total on Friday at 128.5. Of 55 games other first-round games with published betting odds, 27 have a higher total.

Here’s what to keep an eye on:

The turnover battle is key

The Buffs’ defense vs. the Creighton offense is one of the marquee matchups of the first round, and the turnover battle could be the deciding factor in the game.

Colorado owns the second-best scoring defense in the Pac-12 and it’s predicated on pressuring the ball. The Buffs’ want to pick pockets and jump passes, and that’s why they lead the Pac-12 in steals per game. Individually, Kindyll Wetta ranks second and Jaylyn Sherrod ranks sixth in the conference in takeaways.

But taking the ball away from the Bluejays is one of the toughest tasks in basketball.

Only 23 of the 356 teams in the nation commit fewer turnovers that Creighton and that statistic is even more impressive considering they move the ball more than just about anyone. Their 20.9 assists per game are the best in the nation and their assist-to-turnover rate also ranks first.

The key to Creighton’s run and gun attack is point guard Tatum Rembao. She’s third in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio and seventh in assists. She’s also coming off back-to-back 10-assist games. She’s a Loveland, Colo. native and the only player on the Bluejay roster who was on the team when they last made the tournament in 2018.

Creighton is 14-2 this season when winning the turnover battle. It’s 6-7 when it loses or ties. Luckily, Colorado was second in the Pac-12 with a +4.20 turnover margin per game this season.

Make your layups

Jumping into a tournament and playing jitter-free ball is always difficult but it may be even tougher this time around considering neither Colorado nor Creighton has played a game in the last two weeks.

The first few minutes could be sloppy, but whichever team settles in first will have a massive advantage. While turnovers will be the easiest measurement of who’s locked in, the ability to finish in the paint is second on that list.

Sherrod and Wetta give the Buffs explosive playmaking in the backcourt but neither excels at the rim. When the Buffs have struggled this season, oftentimes those two have blown an opportunity or two in the paint. With sophomore Tameiya Sadler still sidelined by an injury sustained after a scary collision in the Pac-12 Tournament, the Buffs are lacking guards who can threaten the rim. Lesila Finau fits that mold, but she’s about the only one.

Scoring has been a struggle at times for CU, with the three games in the Pac-12 Tournament—when they averaged 51.3 points—coming to mind. Creating turnovers, running in transition and finishing at the rim will give the Buffs a needed scoring boost and also force the Bluejays to respect the dribble-drive. That would open up passing lanes and allow Sherrod and Wetta to do what they do best: dish out dimes.

Colorado’s guards are smaller than Creighton’s but the Buffs figure to have a significant size advantage in the frontcourt. The CU bigs could create pressure in the paint that opens up opportunities for the guards. Those bigs will be crucial in winning the battle in the paint, where Creighton has outscored opponents by 56 points over the course of the season.

Capitalizing on easy opportunities will be a key piece of the equation for both teams on Friday. But those opportunities will be especially crucial for a grit-and-grind Colorado squad that could struggle to keep pace with the Bluejays if its defense can’t stop Creighton.

Can the Buffs make noise from deep?

The final piece of the equation on Friday is the story from behind the arc, where Colorado and Creighton couldn’t approach the game more differently. While the Buffs typically shoot the 3-ball as a last resort—they made a Pac-12-worst 30.3% of their shots from deep this season—Creighton’s offense is predicated on stretching the defense out to the perimeter.

The Bluejays possess an efficient, high-volume attack from deep. Only two teams in the country made more 3-pointers per game this season and its 36.8% clip from deep ranked 11th. (Creighton also had the 11th-best field goal percentage overall this season.)

The 3-point barrage is led by second-team All-Big East guard Lauren Jensen. She was the conference’s most improved player this season and made the fifth-most 3-pointers in the nation while putting up 12.3 points per game. Jensen is one of three sophomores who sit atop the team’s scoring leaderboard and average double-digit points per game, joining first-team all-conference forward Emma Ronsiek (14.9 ppg) and sixth player Morgan Maly (12.0)

Sophomore guard Frida Formann is the Buffs’ sniper from deep but she’s struggled to connect this season. She shoots the most threes on the team but has hit fewer than 30% of them.

Senior Mya Hollingshed is nation’s top players and she’s knocking down nearly 40% of her deep balls while taking more than four threes per game as a 6-foot-3 forward. Bench center Quay Miller has also hit some timely deep balls when defenses left her alone on the perimeter.

The Buffs don’t need to blow the Bluejays out of the water from deep but if they let Creighton get hot and can’t answer, it could be a long day.