What to expect for the Pac-12 on Selection Sunday

BOULDER – The 2020 Colorado Buffaloes will play one more game before calling it a season… or at least that’s how things are shaping up.

Selection Sunday is only two days away and that’s when the Buffs, and the rest of the country, will learn whether they were chosen to go to the postseason and who they will face off against once they get there.

Every team in the country was deemed eligible for postseason play by the NCAA, but the Pac-12 chose to require its teams to have a .500 or better record to be allowed to play. Some eligible teams won’t participate in the postseason because they aren’t interested. In the Pac-12, Utah, UCLA, Washington, Stanford and Washington State have all opted out.

That leaves Oregon, USC and Colorado as the postseason-eligible Pac-12 teams. Arizona State could join them with a win over Oregon State on Saturday.

In a normal year, the Pac-12 allocates its bowl game berths simply: The No. 1 team plays in the Rose Bowl, the No. 2 team plays in the Las Vegas Bowl, the No. 3 plays in the Alamo, then Holiday Bowl, then Redbox Bowl, then Sun Bowl, then Cheez-it Bowl. If the No. 1 team qualifies for the Colelge Football Playoff, everybody gets bumped up a spot.

This year, things are different.

The Rose Bowl is a College Football Playoff Semifinal this year, so the Pac-12 champion will be placed in another New Year’s Six bowl, assuming it isn’t chosen for the College Football Playoff.

And a bunch of bowl games have been canceled, including half of the Pac-12’s, so the lineup has been shaken up this season.

As it stands now, USC has long odds of making the College Football Playoff, even with a win over Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship on Friday. As long as that is true, here’s the pecking order for the Pac-12 this year:

1. NY6 Bowl
2. Alamo Bowl
3. Armed Forces Bowl

The winner of the USC-Oregon game on Friday will take first. If USC loses, it would finish second and Colorado would take third. If Oregon loses, it would finish third and Colorado would take second.

If Colorado makes the Alamo Bowl, it would take on a Big 12 opponent. The No. 2 finisher in the Big 12 is supposed to play in the Alamo Bowl (assuming no CFP berth for the conference). The title game is between Oklahoma and Iowa State, so the loser would go to the Alamo Bowl, in theory.

There’s a twist though. Texas is the No. 3 team in the conference and it could be elevated to the Alamo Bowl because it wouldn’t have to leave the state to play the game. These are the sorts of compromises you might see this year.

The Armed Forces Bowl pits the Pac-12 against the SEC this year. The SEC doesn’t have set protocols for allocating bowl games, instead the conference chooses a matchup it likes because of the attention it would draw, the location, or similar factors.

Most bowl projections have had a lower-tier SEC team making the trip to Fort Worth, Texas. South Carolina and Missippi State have been the most popular names.

Colorado may not have a game this weekend, but there’s plenty to keep an eye on ahead of Selection Sunday.