Vlad Namestnikov's future within Colorado's limping lineup

Imagine hearing this last season: The Colorado Avalanche have too much depth.

The idea that the Avalanche lacked scoring potential beyond its top line was beaten to death, beaten in the afterlife, and then beaten some more. Colorado was often called a ‘one-line team.’

It seems that Joe Sakic felt personally attacked by this narrative because, since the conclusion of the 2018-19 season, every move he’s made has added to a group that, when healthy, now represents arguably the deepest corps of forwards in the National Hockey League.

On deadline day, Sakic doubled down on that strategy by acquiring depth forward Vladislav Namestnikov from the Ottawa Senators in exchange for Colorado’s 2021 fourth-round pick. Like every Cup-contending fan base, many hoped the Avalanche would make a big splash at the deadline by adding a game-changing top-six forward, a top-four defenseman, or even a high-profile goalie to their roster.

But as we’ve seen time and time again, Sakic patiently waded through the overpays and instead only executed when a deal had the right price. He didn’t add a game-changing player but instead elected to smooth the edges of a Colorado roster which he evidently has a lot of confidence in.

“We did a lot in the offseason but this is a team we really like and believe in,” Sakic confirmed after the deadline. “We love the chemistry in our dressing room and you don’t want to tinker too much with that.”

Let’s look into the deal. Colorado gained a depth forward who allows for some flexibility in Jared Bednar’s lineup choices down the stretch. In return, the Avs forfeited a fourth-round pick. But how much is a fourth-round pick worth anyway?

The fourth round isn’t meaningless, but it doesn’t provide a lot of high-value picks either. There’s only an eight percent chance of garnering a fourth-round forward or defenseman good for 200 or more NHL games in his career, and there’s an 11 percent chance of adding a goalie with the same tenure.

In the past ten drafts, the Avalanche hasn’t found much success when selecting in the fourth round. Only two of Colorado’s ten fourth-round picks in the past ten years have played in actual NHL games, and none have eclipsed the 200 game mark. In that sense, there was little value lost in this deal.

With long-term injuries to Mikko Rantanen, Nazem Kadri, and Matt Calvert, Colorado’s top nine has a lot of holes to be filled. Sakic and crew are certainly hoping that Namestnikov can be an effective plug for those holes. Jared Bednar seems to agree.

“[Namestnikov is a] guy that can factor in on both special teams, real good penalty killer, and has played different roles on different power-plays. So I think he adds skill to our top nine, especially at this point with guys out.”

Essentially, Namestnikov needs to be a Swiss Army Knife for Colorado down the stretch. Reports suggest that the major injuries to this forward group will persist through mid-March at the earliest. Until then, the Avs are hoping to use the newest addition to the ’90’s club’ as a bandaid for any holes the team has in its 5v5 or special teams units. But can Namestnikov stop the bleeding?

The 27-year-old has spent six seasons and 446 NHL games bouncing around the league while moving up and down lineups. His best season came in 2017-18 while playing with the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he logged 44 points in 62 games before being traded to the New York Rangers.

There he was much less effective with four points in 19 games; a justified regression after playing the majority of the season on a line alongside Stamkos and Kucherov. The Lightning would go on to lose to Andre Burakovsky and the Washington Capitals in the Eastern Conference Finals while Namestnikov watched from home.

This season, he’s split time between the Big Apple and Ottawa, though he’s played the majority of the season with the Senators. He logged .46 points per game (25 points in 54 games) while playing in Canada’s capital, a slight improvement from his career average of .44 points per game.

On the floundering Senators, Namestnikov was a top-six forward. On a Cup-contending Avalanche squad, he’ll fit somewhere in the bottom-six. Last night against Buffalo, he was most commonly deployed with Bellemare and Nieto on the third line, but his long-term role will surely evolve with the health of the team.

Despite Sakic’s and Bednar’s praise for his intangibles, Namestnikov ‘s underlying statistics are going to have to take a significant jump following his move to Colorado. The 29th-place Senators only accounted for 45.45% of total expected goals while Namestnikov was on the ice. This rate would place him second to last in terms of current Avalanche players with more than ten games under their belt this season.

Given, Ottawa’s 169 goals for this season pale in comparison to Colorado’s 211, but Namestnikov isn’t exactly helping to generate offense with just 1.57 shots per game. However, Namestnikov’s defensive responsibility, not his offensive production, has enticed Sakic’s front office to pursue the Russian forward in recent years.

The second-generation pro’s game has evolved throughout his career. Notice how his recent impact differs from his role in Tampa Bay (2014-15 through 2017-18). As a member of the Lightning, Namestnikov was more effective offensively, while recent years have shown his shut-down ability in his own end (remember red/positive = good in the offensive zone; blue/negative = good in the defensive zone).

Per Bednar, Namestnikov gives the coaching staff options when deploying special teams units. Although the Avs haven’t allowed a power-play goal in their last six games, Bednar is still looking to fine-tune his odd-man groups before the postseason.

Last night’s tilt yielded no indication on Namestnikov’s future special team’s usage, though, as he didn’t log a single minute on the man advantage or disadvantage.

So what’s the future for Namestnikov in Colorado? It’s an appropriate question with an answer that will get murkier before it becomes clear. The pending unrestricted free agent will have 20 more regular-season contests and hopefully a plethora of playoff games to prove to the Avalanche that he’s worth keeping.

Assuming full health, the 183-pound forward will have to fight for his spot amid a crowded bottom-six; and that’s just during the regular season.

The off-season provides all kinds of uncertainty with six other free-agent Avalanche forwards on the roster who’ll need re-signing, including Burakovsky, Jost, and Nichushkin. There is also a slew of prospects eager for meaningful NHL minutes, including Kaut, Bowers, and Kamenev to name a few.

All of the coming possibilities for Namestnikov can make your head spin, but Sakic’s broad, long-term strategy is in place. With the core pieces as clear as ever, Colorado’s management will work to provide a support group that’s ready to win a championship.