The 2023 Broncos should throw in the towel

DENVER, Colo. — The Broncos are cooked.

The run defense is Swiss cheese.

The pass defense is Swiss cheese.

The offensive line is Swiss cheese with a penalty problem.

The Broncos have had their moments. They built a 21-3 lead over the Commanders. They came back from a 28-7 deficit to beat the Bears. They ran for 115 yards on 9.6 yards per carry in the first half against the Jets. They’ve created explosive plays in the kicking game. The passing attack has been efficient often. They’ve led at halftime in all three of their home games, despite not winning any of them.

But the flaws have outweighed the flashes, and the Broncos haven’t been able to win football games.

On Sunday, the Broncos lost to the Jets and fell to 1-4 this season. Denver looked like the better team in the first half. They scored on three of their four possessions. But a muffed punt and a safety gifted the Jets five free points, and Denver only  led 13-8.

In the second half, the Broncos were lifeless. They punted on their first three possessions and then fumbled and then punted again. An interception from Pat Surtain II gave the Broncos the ball at their own 3-yard line with 2:14 on the clock and a three-point deficit. But Denver fumbled for the fourth time and that was the ball game. The Jets won 31-21.

The Broncos didn’t look like a totally hopeless football team. They didn’t look like a team that was bad enough to punt on the rest of the season. They were competitive, but they made far too many mistakes. For the fourth time in five games, they didn’t win.

And here’s the thing about good football teams: they win football games. The Broncos are not a good football team. While they aren’t mathematically eliminated from Super Bowl contention, they may as well be.

The path to the playoffs for the 1-4 Broncos looks like this:

Win two of the next four games. Those games are at Kansas City, versus the Packers, versus the Chiefs, then at Buffalo. The Broncos’ odds to win those games, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, are 17.6%, 42.5%, 20.5% and 13.8%

The next step is to win six of the final eight games of the season. These contests should be easier to win, at least on paper, but ESPN’s FPI only favors the Broncos in one of them.

The final step is to pray that a 9-8 record is good enough to earn a place in the postseason.

The odds of success are astronomically small, but why not give hope a try?

Because they can get a jump on 2024 instead.

The Broncos as presently constructed aren’t good enough to compete for a title. They don’t seem to be good enough to compete for a playoff spot either. Change is coming, and changing now would be beneficial.

Josey Jewell, Frank Clark, Mike Purcell, Kareem Jackson, K’Waun Williams, Cameron Fleming, Lloyd Cushenberry and Adam Trautman will all be free agents after the season. Instead of letting them walk and gaining nothing in return, the Broncos can try to reel in some draft capital by trading them.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Sunday morning that the Broncos were receiving trade calls and could be active depending on how they fare before the deadline. They’re off to a rough start. According to Schefter, the Broncos would be willing to listen to trade offers for “almost any player on the defensive side” of the ball. He noted that teams will have interest in Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton, too.

If Sean Payton wants to make a move, the time is now.

Half of the league has two wins or fewer. By the time the October 31 trade deadline comes around, many of those teams will know their odds of qualifying for the postseason are too slim to pursue. They’ll punt on 2023 and saturate the trade market.

For example, the Panthers are loudly searching for a starting receiver. The Broncos could offer Jeudy or Sutton. There’s no reason to wait for other teams to start working the phones. What if the Raiders fall off and decide to move Davante Adams? Or the Bengals don’t bounce back from their disappointing start, and decide to move on from Tee Higgins instead of losing him for nothing in free agency? 

The Broncos’ season isn’t salvageable. The last NFL team to come back from a 1-4 start to make the playoffs was the Tim Tebow-led Broncos. And those Broncos won the AFC West with an 8-8 record. That won’t happen.

It’s time to take the Broncos to the chop shop. Almost everybody should be on the market. If they play their cards right, they can give themselves a real chance to turn the program around in 2024.

See you next September.