Six results that could help the Buffs in the Pac-12 standings

The last weekend of the 2019-20 Pac-12 basketball season is here and things are tight.

UCLA, Oregon and Arizona State all have a chance to come away with the regular-season title, but there’s more going on behind those teams in the standings.

Colorado is currently sitting in fourth place, meaning that if the season ended before this final round of games, they’d take the fourth and final bye through the first round of the Pac-12 tournament. That’s the Buffs’ goal this week and that’s what we’ll focus on when talking through these scenarios.

Here’s how the Pac-12 stands, as of right now:

1. UCLA (12-5)
2. Oregon (11-5)
3. Arizona State (10-6)
4. Colorado (10-7)
— NO BYE —
5. USC (10-7)
6. Stanford (9-7)
7. Arizona (9-7)
8. California (7-9)
9. Washington State (6-10)
10. Utah (6-11)
11. Oregon State (5-11)
12. Washington (3-13)

You’ll notice that six teams could still finish with seven losses since the top of the conference is so tight. That means that even a win at Utah wouldn’t guarantee the Buffs a first-round bye.

The final standings are decided by in-conference winning percentage but if there’s a tie, whoever won the head-to-head series between the teams gets the better seed. If the season series was split, then whoever had the best record against the best team in the conference gets the higher seed. If that’s a tie, then it goes to the record against the second-best team, then the third, etc.

UCLA has locked up one of the four byes, but Colorado could surpass any other team in the standings.

For example, Colorado would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Oregon because Oregon beat UCLA (the potential No. 1 team in the conference), but if it was a three-way tie with Colorado, Oregon and Arizona State, Colorado would get the highest seed because of the teams’ record against each other. Oregon split its series’ with Colorado and Arizona State, but the Buffs beat Arizona State in their only conference game.

Here’s what the Buffs need to happen this weekend, in order of importance:

(P.S. There’s an abbreviated version at the bottom if you don’t want to nerd out about the nuance.)

1. CU beats Utah

Duh. That’s what makes everything else mean something.

If Colorado beats Utah, it has a very good shot to get the bye.

If the Buffs lose, they need all sorts of things to break their way.

The game will be played at 12:30 p.m. on Saturday.

2. Washington or Washington State beats Arizona

Of all five of the other teams that could finish with seven losses, Colorado has only lost the season series to Arizona.

The Buffs split the season series with Oregon and Stanford, and they beat Arizona State and USC.

Keeping the Wildcats out of the tiebreaker equation at seven losses is important. An Arizona loss to Washington or Washington State would be the team’s eighth.

If Colorado loses to Utah, then Arizona losing twice would keep the Wildcats out of a tiebreaker with the Buffs.

3. USC beats UCLA

This is a weird one.

Colorado can’t catch UCLA and USC is right on the Buffs’ heels, but there’s a twist.

The Buffs swept the season series against the Trojans so, assuming Colorado beats Utah, including the Trojans in the tie at seven losses would be beneficial for CU.

USC beat Stanford in the season series and lost to Oregon and Colorado. The Trojans split with Arizona and Arizona State.

So, for example, if Colorado, USC and Arizona were the three teams tied at seven losses, this is how things would play out:

t-1. Colorado (2-1)
t-1. Arizona (2-1)
3. USC (1-2)

The tiebreaker from there would be whether CU or Arizona had the better record against the No. 1 finisher in the Pac-12. Colorado and Arizona are both 0-2 against UCLA, but Colorado finished better against both Arizona State and Oregon.

So, no matter who finishes No. 1 in the Pac-12, Colorado will have the edge over Arizona.

The final standings for the Buffs in any three-team tie with CU, ASU and Arizona would be:

1. Colorado
2. Arizona
3. USC

Hopefully that all makes sense but if it doesn’t, just remember that Colorado wants to tie USC, if possible.

And remember, Colorado lost the season series to UCLA 2-0. That means it’s better for Oregon to win the conference, in terms of tiebreakers. It wouldn’t make a difference in a tie with Arizona, but it would with other teams.

The USC win and UCLA loss are both good for Colorado in this game.

BUT:

If Colorado loses to Utah, it needs USC to lose this game. This game will be near halftime when the CU-Utah game ends.

4. Washington or Washington State beats Arizona State, but not both

This is very similar to the scenario above.

Colorado won the season series 1-0 against Arizona State, since the game in China to open the season doesn’t count in the conference standings.

ASU has split the season series with every potential seven-loss team, except Stanford, which ASU beat in the only meeting.

So, in multi-team tiebreakers, every team involved (except Stanford) would have a win and a loss to Arizona State in the round-robin head-to-head, except for Colorado which would just have a win. That’s a huge edge.

For example, if Colorado, Arizona State and Oregon tie at 11-7, their records within that group of teams would be:

1. Colorado: 2-1
2. Oregon: 2-2
3. ASU: 1-2

Essentially, Colorado is probably in a better place if Arizona State is involved in a tie, though Stanford being involved would neutralize that benefit.

So, if CU loses to Utah, the Buffs want ASU to lose twice. The Sun Devils’s game against Washington won’t start until after the conclusion of CU’s game against Utah.

5. Oregon or Oregon State beats Stanford

This one is complex.

Colorado could still surpass Oregon, but the goal here is for the Buffs to gain a bye, not the highest possible seed. Plus, a lot of unlikely results would have to occur in a scenario where the Buffs take the No. 2 seed.

(For those interested, here is that scenario:

1. Oregon State beats Stanford, so Stanford has an eighth loss.
2. Stanford and Cal both beat Oregon, so the Ducks have a seventh loss.
3. Arizona State goes 1-1 vs. the Washington schools.
4. Colorado wins.

Colorado would likely surpass Oregon and Arizona State for the two-seed in the tournament.)

So, let’s simplify:

If Oregon or Oregon State beats Stanford, then Stanford isn’t involved in the tie-breaking process for teams with seven losses.

Plus, Colorado has a better chance of winning a tiebreaker at seven losses if Oregon wins the conference than if UCLA does. So an Oregon win may be more of a positive than a negative anyway.

If CU loses, it’d be ideal for Stanford to lose twice. The Cardinal’s game against Oregon is the last Pac-12 game Saturday night.

6. Oregon beats Cal

This is for the same reasons mentioned above.

Again, if the Ducks lose twice this weekend the Buffs could surpass them. That seems unlikely though and a bunch of other things need to happen. It’s best to cut out thoughts of the two-seed and gain an edge in the tiebreakers.

The short version:

There’s a good chance Colorado winds up tied somewhere in the conference standings. There are some teams that Colorado wants to be tied with, and others that Colorado doesn’t, because of the tiebreakers.

The good teams are: USC and Arizona State.

The bad team is Arizona.

Stanford doesn’t swing things one way or the other, so it’s best if it loses and just stays out of the equation.

It’s better for Colorado if Oregon wins and UCLA loses.