Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos want a rookie quarterback, but can they afford the right one?

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Denver Broncos believe they’re in good shape heading into the 2024 NFL Draft.

“One thing we know is that we are going to get a really good player at [No.] 12,” general manager George Paton said on Thursday. “We’ve had teams call to move up, and we’ve had teams call to move back. We have flexibility, but we do know at [No.] 12—if we stand pat—we are going to get a really good player.”

The Broncos held their annual pre-draft press conference Thursday, one week before the draft begins. Paton and head coach Sean Payton answered questions for about 30 minutes.

The big question in Denver is whether the Broncos will draft a quarterback.

“Do we have to draft a quarterback? You would say, ‘Man, it sure looks like we have to draft a quarterback,’” Payton said. “And yet, it has to be the right fit and the right one. If we had the tip sheets as to who everyone else was taking, it would be easier to answer that question. That’s the puzzle here.”

A week before the draft, the consensus is that four quarterbacks—USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, LSU’s Jayden Daniels, and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy—are locks to be selected in the first round. Two more quarterbacks—Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.—are 50-50 propositions.

The first two picks of the draft are virtually guaranteed to be quarterbacks. The most likely outcome for the third pick is another quarterback, although the New England Patriots are desperate for talent across their roster and may trade the pick. If they hold onto the pick, there’s an outside chance they could choose a wide receiver or tackle.

If the first three picks in the draft are quarterbacks, only one sure-fire first-rounder will remain. The Broncos would need to make a deal to move up from the 12th pick to guarantee they can snag him.

“Part of the puzzle—if we were looking at our draft board and you looked at the screen and you said, ‘Team needs,’ there are a handful of teams who are ahead of us where you would say, ‘Quarterback,’” Payton said. “Then there is a team or two—Minnesota, ourselves, the Raiders—you could argue quarterback. That’s what makes this year a little interesting.”

In other words, at least four teams (including the Broncos) could be in the market to trade up for a quarterback. 

The more teams trying to move up, the higher the price will be.

“The hypothetical relative to what the compensation is a lot of times is driven by who else is interested,” Payton said. “George, he has talked to all these teams in front of us. Obviously, [the compensation] depends on how much further you go up. Also, if there’s someone else doing the same thing. I think George said it best at the very beginning. That certainly is a possibility, and then it’s how much you can palate.”

The Broncos will be at a disadvantage if they try to move up since they don’t have a second-round pick this year. Their top competition figures to be the Minnesota Vikings, who have two first-rounders, the 11th and the 23rd, they can offer this year.

To make a massive move up the board—into the top seven or so picks—the Broncos will probably need to offer a future first-round pick in addition to the 12th pick this year.

For example, the 49ers moved from the 12th pick to the third pick in 2021. They gave up their first-rounders in 2021 (no. 12), 2022 and 2023, and a 2022 third-round pick for No. 3 in 2021.

While the trade looks bad in hindsight because quarterback Trey Lance didn’t pan out in San Francisco, the two future first-round picks they offered were both the 29th pick in the draft. Losing those doesn’t hurt as badly as losing a top-10 pick.

“You’re dealing with unknown values,” Payton said. “We say it’s a first- [round pick], but the difference between [pick] four and 24 is pretty significant. So there’s a lot that goes into that.”

Part of the equation for the Broncos is determining what their future first-round picks will be worth. Las Vegas is offering a 5.5-win total for the Broncos this year. Only the Carolina Panthers have a lower line. In other words, the bookies believe the Broncos are only better than one other team. Their first-round pick in 2025 might be too valuable to lose.

No NFL team wants to plan on picking in the top 10, but the Broncos must consider the possibility they will be in a better position to draft a quarterback next year.

If the Broncos are going to draft a quarterback—especially if they trade up to do it—they must be sure they’re making a good bet.

“What you don’t want to do here is force it,” Paton said. “Otherwise, we will be in this position next year and the years after.”

Determining who to bet on is the hard part.

“I’m not going to talk about our board right now,” Paton said. “I appreciate the question. I do think that it’s a good quarterback class. [There are] seven, eight quarterbacks that we like [and] that we think can play in the league one day. I’m not going to get into how we have them rated or the Top 10.  I’m not going to go there, but it is a good quarterback class. It’s been fun getting to know them, seven or eight of them. We think that we can take a quarterback early; we think [we can get one in] the mid-rounds. We think that there are going to be quarterbacks throughout the draft that are interesting to us.”

The Broncos’ brass has discussed the costs of trades and the most likely scenarios with their analytics department. One of those meetings was Wednesday night.

But there’s only so much prepping you can do.

On Thursday, the draft will begin, and players will drop off the board.

Caleb Williams will be first. 

Jayden Daniels or Drake Maye will probably be second.

The other should be third, but chaos could be on the way. Some would say the draft begins with the third pick.

The Cardinals have made it clear they’re willing to move their fourth overall pick for the right price. If a guy the Broncos like is on the board, they’ll try to move up. If other teams like that guy, the price could be steep.

After trades for Russell Wilson and Sean Payton, the Broncos might have a tough time justifying giving up enough first-round picks to get their quarterback. They haven’t made a first-round selection in either of the past two drafts. A lack of top-end talent is part of the reason expectations are so low.

But maybe the guy they like will still be there at No. 6 or No. 8 or No. 10. The price would be lower.

One thing is clear: if there’s a quarterback the Broncos like, they’re going to do what they can to get him.

“I would just say if it’s a player that you think can change the landscape of your organization moving forward, like quarterback, then you do whatever it takes to get him,” Paton said. “If there’s consensus in the building, a love in the building, you’re aggressive and you try to get him. It doesn’t mean you’re going to get him, but you try. So we’re open to everything. We’re wide open.”