Saturday fun, attacking Big 12 overs, under the radar picks and more

I mentioned in the column last week that I got back to .500 in Week 5, and with a 3-3-1 Week 6 we stay there (15-15-1), adding our first push of the season as well. Week 6 actually went well until the two games played in Carolina happened where Hurricane Matthew had a large impact. It’s entirely possible NC State and Virginia Tech would have covered and won anyways, but my two picks, Notre Dame and North Carolina, were unable to do just about anything offensively due to the harsh field conditions. But hey, that’s why they call it gambling.

That said, we’re giving you an array of picks this week. We’re going to continue to attack the Big 12 overs that aren’t nearly high enough, giving you some under the radar picks and big game hunting as we enjoy doing.

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Saturday Fun picks of the week

Mississippi State +7 at BYU

The Bulldogs have not been good this year at 2-3 and coming off their worst loss of the year against Auburn. BYU, on the other hand, started off well with some close wins but has regressed to .500. Mississippi State is still the SEC team here and should be a more talented team. This line has fluctuated from 7.5 to 7. Obviously, if you can get that extra half point, take it because it could be money. At home, BYU could very well win but not cover, give me State.

Pittsburgh -3 at Virginia

Not sure why this line is where it is. Virginia has been shaky and started off the year by losing to an FCS opponent in Richmond. This feels like they’re getting too much respect coming off a win against a so-so Duke team. Home or not, Pitt is by far the best team they’ll have faced so far this season. 3.5 points just aren’t enough. The Panthers are a hard-nosed team that’s played in lots of close games and come out on top. If you’re a fan of pass rushers watch Pitt’s Ejuan Price in this one, as he leads the nation in sacks and plays with reckless ferocity. Give us the Panthers in a fairly easy call.

Nebraska -3 at Indiana

Indiana is kind of the sneaky team in the Big Ten right now, as they upset Michigan State and have played other top teams tough. The dirty little secret on Indiana is that their defense can play you tough but their offense struggles. A Nebraska team that can put up points and plays good defense should be just the recipe to cover that small spread. The Huskers are averaging 37 points per game and allowing an average of only 17.6, tied for 15th best in the country. Feels like Vegas is sleeping on the Huskers here, an upset is always possible but this Hoosiers team doesn’t scare me.

Utah -9 at Oregon State

This is another road team which I don’t love, however, this is another spread that seems way too low when you consider the matchup on the field. The Beavers just scored 47 to win in overtime against Cal last week. But that was all done on the ground with OSU not even reaching 100 yards passing (!). Consider that, before last Saturday, Oregon State had not scored more than 25 points in a game. Little offense and a lack of a passing game is not what you want against the Utes, who have the nation’s 19th stingiest scoring defense and a top 30 run defense. Did I mention they’re also loaded with pass rushers who can turn the life of an inexperienced quarterback into a nightmare?

Utah should cover easily here as their struggles on attack shouldn’t be exposed by the Beavers 101st scoring defense in the country.

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Big Game Hunting

Interestingly enough all these games see the favorite playing on the road, which in college football (where an upset is always lurking around the corner) could really lead to some big surprises.

Alabama -12.5 at Tennessee

The Vols finally lost after almost pulling off another incredible comeback, but getting behind and then coming back late isn’t going to work against this Alabama team. These two teams actually played a very close game last season in which the Tide won 19-14, but this Alabama offense has been more multiple and higher scoring. If Tennessee starts off slow being limited to playing catch up and throwing the ball, it’s over against this defense. Their pass rushers and defensive backs can just lock you down and turn you over too easily . Tennessee will have to show a completely different consistency this Saturday if they want to cover the spread, particularly on offense.

Wisconsin +11 vs Ohio State

This is going to be a great game in one of college football’s great night game settings. Wisconsin is a perfect team in a large spread  that’s over a touchdown because they won’t blow out many teams in their conference but they’ll play anyone close. The Buckeyes will be going up against a very strong defense (4th best scoring ‘D’) that forces you to pass the ball and pressures you like hell when you do.

This will be a huge test for QB J.T. Barrett, not to mention Ohio State’s talented but young wide receivers and offensive lineman. The Badgers have been too good this year to be giving 11 points to anyone, especially at home. Give us the home team.

Mississippi -7.5 at Arkansas

Probably the toughest of the ranked matchups to pick here. The Rebels have two losses on their resume but have looked like a very good team in the first month or so of the year. Arkansas has maintained their tough in the trenches attitude while also being a bit more well-rounded offensively. That half point kills but ultimately I like the Rebels’ offense in this one. Arkansas is a hard team to play but I’m not sure they’re any better than the 7 win teams that we’ve been used to and Mississippi is better than that in my opinion. Give us the rebels in a tough SEC-style game.

The half point here is a killer, but ultimately I like the Rebels offense in this one. Arkansas is a hard team to play but I’m not sure they’re any better than the seven to eight-win teams that we’ve seen the last couple years. Plus, Mississippi is better than them in my opinion, and also the higher scoring team which always bodes well in a spread above a TD. Give us the rebels in a tough SEC-style game.

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Over/under watch:

Kansas State at Oklahoma – Over – 58.5

This seems so low it’s almost as if Vegas forgot this is a Big 12 game. So far we’ve gone 3-1 betting the overs on Big 12 games, better known as the conference that plays no defense. In fairness, these two teams are some of the better defensive units in the NCAA, but they’re far from world beaters. We’re still talking about two teams that allowed 38 and 40 points last week to inner-conference foes. Anything under 60 in this conference is almost like free money. Take the over before it climbs any further.

Iowa State at Texas – Over – 69.5

We might just have to pencil the Longhorns in every week for this part of the column, or at least until the number is above 75. Texas has been synonymous with high-scoring games this season and a Cyclones team that’s put up 42 against Baylor and 31 on Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks shouldn’t disappoint.

Want to make a wager on these outcomes? Try MyBookie.LV and use the code BSNDENVER for a 100% match of your deposit. CLICK LINK HERE

Another two for fun

Syracuse +20.5 vs. Virginia Tech

Syracuse is coming off their worst loss of the year against a surprisingly good Wake Forest team, but have managed to put up points against everyone else. Tech instead is coming off a huge win in bad weather against North Carolina and could be perfect for a hangover type game. At home, Syracuse can make this a closer game than expected against a Tech offense that’s still not convinced me to jump on board quite yet.

Tulsa +21 at Houston

Similar to Syracuse, Tulsa puts up points against anyone, which is really the key to keeping things competitive against the Cougars. Tulsa isn’t the same level team that Houston is, but they’re 4-1 and have played everyone tough so far this year aside from their loss to Ohio State. Houston could still be thinking about the game they let get away at Navy in this one and struggle to bury Tulsa by the full 21.