Saturday fun, back to .500 as we enter the nitty gritty part of conference play

 

It’s another installment of our Saturday Fun picks and while few things are better than a wild and crazy college football Saturday, nothing is better than winning while enjoying said games. After a tough stretch, we went 4-and-3 in our Week 5 picks, thanks to some over/under calls (thanks, Big 12 defenses) and are now 12-12 on the year.

As we get into the nitty-gritty part of the inner-conference schedules, I must say I’m feeling good. There’s a much larger history to go off of in head-to-head matchups and we start to have a better idea of who teams really are.

So without further ado here are our seven picks for what should be another crazy weekend of college games.

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Big Game Hunting

North Carolina -1.5 vs. Virginia Tech

Both teams are ranked in this one, with the Hokies 25th and UNC 17th and it seems that’s skewing perception a little bit. Tech’s schedule has been significantly easier than the Tar Heels, who are coming off a spectacular last second win against Florida State.

Va Tech has had an easy road aside from their one loss to Tennessee, while UNC has already had two games against top 25 opponents. More importantly, the Carolina offense is rolling at the moment, with quarterback Mitch Trubisky playing at an extremely high level with tons of talent surrounding him at the skill positions.

Tech has played well so far but this will be their first real test of the year in the ACC. The Tar Heels are much more game tested and have the home field advantage, you’d expect this spread to be larger. Give me the Tar Heels and enjoy their explosive offense.

Colorado +4.5 at Southern California

Even though they’re ranked in the top 25, CU is not favored at the Coliseum against a struggling USC team. SC has played better since making a quarterback change the last two weeks, barely losing to Utah and them thumping Arizona State last week. They’re still 2-and-3 and have deficiencies up front on defense and while struggling to play consistently on offense.

Colorado is 5-0 against the spread this year and has fared well in a tough schedule. Their secondary play has been outstanding, leading them to be the top passing defense in the Pac-12. That’s likely to be the key matchup with USC’s talented receivers going against the Buffs DB’s, a matchup that’ll be crucial on the other side of the ball as well, where the Trojans talented cornerbacks will have their hands full with CU’s receivers.

This line seems very influenced by public perception and the recent history of both programs. A more accurate spread would be the Buffaloes -3, or an even line at worst, but 4.5 for the USC is far too much. I’m counting on Colorado to continue their impressive play regardless of who starts at quarterback for them.

Texas A&m -7 vs. Tennessee

There are some teams you just can’t figure out and for me, that’s been the Volunteers. They’ve been on the brink of death in almost every game this year but have come out unscathed and unbeaten. This should be where the story ends vs another top-10 opponent on the road.

The Aggies on their part have been kind to the Saturday Fun picks already getting us a win. They have tons of talent on either side of the ball and have the explosive offense required to keep pace with Tennessee when they inevitably kick things into high gear in the second-half. A&M was battling some injuries last week against South Carolina and should return some of those starters.

While both teams are unbeaten, the stat that most strengthens my resolve in taking the Aggies is these two teams record against the spread. A&m is 4-and-1 while Tennessee is 2-and-3 with nothing but close calls and a miraculous win last week.

This is also a big game in College Station, the home of the original 12th man, so I like Texas A&m to cover a touchdown and end the Volunteers run.

Florida State +3 at Miami

This is another matchup where the team’s records and position in the ranking seem to be skewing perception and the spread. Miami is unbeaten but has yet to haul in a quality win while FSU is 3-and-2 but has dealt with one of the tougher schedules in the country.

The Seminoles also haven’t been themselves defensively, but the Canes have been fairly conservative offensively and don’t seem to have the scheme (the talent is there) to exploit the Noles deficiencies. FSU is the more talented team and they also have star running back Dalvin Cook, the true x-factor in this matchup.

In a huge rivalry game with lots at stake, I’m betting on FSU fixing their defensive issues and taking it to their in-state rivals.

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Over/under watch

Texas vs Oklahoma, Over-73

Last week, betting on the overs in two Big 12 paid off big, so we’re going back at it again. OU and Texas have basically only played in shootouts this year, with Oklahoma’s average final game scores for the year at 75 and Texas’ at a whopping 79.5. Those are staggering numbers.

Even in a rivalry game where things could get tighter, neither of these teams seems likely to slow down anytime soon. Offense is the bread and butter for these two squads and anything under 75 seems generous; give me the over.

TCU at Kansas, Over-64

TCU and Kansas are two teams who have also found themselves in nothing but high-scoring games, but for two very different reasons. Rather, both teams have one commonality: they can’t stop anyone defensively. TCU can put up points with their eyes closed, while things have been a bit tougher for the Jayhawks.

The Horned Frogs’ games have finished with an average final combined score of 75 this season, while KU’s average final score has been of 61. Look for the Horned Frogs to turn this into a track meet and rack up endless points, with KU finding 20 plus along the way to get over the 64.

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Another one for fun

Notre Dame +2.5 at NC State

The Irish have had a very tough first month of the season as they’re now an astonishing 2-3 on the year, while the Wolfpack are 3-1. Given that, you can see why NC State is favored at home, but should they be?

Notre Dame has much more talent and has had a significantly tougher schedule this season. Their chances of salvaging anything starts this Saturday in Raleigh, NC. Look for Notre Dame to overcome their tough start and put together some wins, there’s just too much talent on this team, starting with QB DeShone Kizer. With a tough schedule ahead the wins are going to have to come from somewhere and NC State just doesn’t scare me. We’re hoping the luck of the Irish rubs off and helps the rest of the picks.