Projected Colorado Two-Deep: The Wide Receivers

The Colorado Buffaloes didn’t realize their annual post-spring camp depth chart because… well, there wasn’t spring camp.

So instead of analyzing their depth chart, I’ve created my own and today we’re talking wide receivers.

Let’s get straight to the point.

Here’s my two-deep for the Buffs’ receivers (three starters and three backups):

Wide Receiver 1: K.D. Nixon, Maurice Bell

Wide Receiver 2: Dimitri Stanley, Daniel Arias

Wide Receiver 3: Vontae Shenault, Jaylon Jackson

K.D. Nixon is back for his senior season and he’s primed for a monster year.

Early prognosticators have Nixon ranked right around No. 300 on the list of 2021 NFL Draft prospects, which would make him a well-regarded undrafted free agent. But if Nixon can move up 50 spots he’ll likely be drafted and his draft ceiling is even higher than that.

Of course, a poor season would have the opposite effect and likely cut Nixon’s career off following this season.

The stage is set.

Nixon should be no worse than the No. 2 option in the Buffs’ offense, and I’d bet on him beating out whoever wins the starting running back job to become the No. 1 threat.

So, what does that look like?

Nixon will work on the boundary and from the slot. He’ll motion into the backfield from empty sets and play running back. He’ll have opportunities to play wildcat quarterback, but those opportunities will only last if he can make

In the last two seasons, Laviska Shenault lined up in the wildcat numerous times, typically in third-and-short situations or near the goalline. The plays often included a fake jet sweep before Shenault plowed straight ahead. In a modern offense, the fake jet sweep is often a read option — the quarterback (in this case Shenault) decides whether to hand the ball off or keep it. The play is more effective when it is an option because by making the right read, the quarterback can essentially take one defender out of the play.

With Shenault, the “read” aspect of the play appeared to be predetermined, so it was just a fake handoff. Shenault was explosive enough that the play could still be effective even without the option aspect giving the offense a numbers advantage. By removing the option, the coaching staff didn’t ask Shenault to be a decision-maker, he was just a ball-carrier.

But is Nixon explosive enough to be effective without having to read the defense?

If he is, then he can sub in cleanly for Shenault.

If he isn’t, then he’ll either have to be able to read his keys and make the right decision, or the wildcat will be scrapped.

These are the details that will determine whether 2020 is a breakout campaign for Nixon which will push him into the middle rounds of the draft, or whether he continues to hover around the 550-yard mark and isn’t drafted at all.

More than anything, the explosiveness is the question for Nixon. NFL teams are more willing to take chances on undersized playmakers than ever before. The caveat is that they have to be remarkably quick.

Nixon is close to being what NFL teams are looking for, and he’s close to being an absolute monster in the Pac-12. The route-running is good, but there’s room for improvement. The speed is good, but there is room for improvement. The short-area burst is good, but there is room for improvement. The hands are solid, but the drops were a little too common last year.

If he takes a step forward in a couple of these categories, he’ll be happy with where he is in 12 months.

If he takes a step forward in all of them, there’s no reason he can’t double his per-season production in 2020.

And here’s a good sign:

https://twitter.com/Superstarnixon/status/1261357798576680960?s=20

Nixon is the clear No. 1 in this group of wide receivers, and there’s a pretty clear No. 2 as well.

Dimitri Stanley caught 29 passes for 312 yards as a true freshman in 2019, and he should see a bump to that production as he jumps from No. 4 option to No. 2 in 2020. Stanley is one of the Buffs’ more exciting young prospects and the jump from Year 1 to Year 2 is typically one of the most significant for college football players.

Will Stanley come back faster? He was already one of the speedier receivers on the roster, but he could become a true burner.

Will Stanley come back with sharper routes? He could profile better as a technician out of the slot than as a seam-ripper.

Stanley may seem redundant next to Nixon, but in today’s game there’s plenty of room on the field for sub-6-foot playmakers with speed and quickness. Teams that play with heavy formations often load up on little speed guys. That means defenses have to keep speed on the field, instead of fully committing to bulking up and stopping the run. The longer-developing deep routes are oftentimes more effective off of play-action anyway.

Look at teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens or Los Angeles Rams. There are plenty of other teams that play power football with undersized burners at receiver. A lot of them — including all three mentioned above — run heavy West Coast schemes, just like the one Karl Dorrell is expected to implement at CU.

In some ways, Nixon and Stanley fit perfectly next to each other in Boulder.

The question is who the No. 3 receiver is and there are plenty of options.

All of the following players could feasibly win the job:

• Vontae Shenault
• Maurice Bell
• Daniel Arias
• Jaylon Jackson

The next group is less likely, but the competition is wide open so who knows:

• Brendan Rice
• Keith Miller III
• Curtis Chiaverini

Plus, the Buffs have too many cornerbacks and running backs, so if the new coaching staff is disappointed by the receivers’ performance in camp there could be some position changes.

I have Vontae Shenault taking the No. 3 job, and the list above is in the order I would put them on the depth chart.

Shenault is a prototypical wide receiver prospect. He’s 6-foot-2. He’s pushing 200 pounds. He doesn’t profile as a perfect route-runner, or a jump ball monster, or a burner whose job it is to take the top off the defense. He has a nice blend of all of those qualities.

Or at least that’s what we expect. None of the receivers past the top two have played enough football to show everything they are capable of.

With a new playbook and a new coaching staff, experience shouldn’t matter as much. The older players will have had more time in the strength and conditioning program and more time working with Division I coaches on their technique, but whoever can learn the playbook the fastest will have a massive advantage.

As an example, the current circumstances are working against Daniel Arias. He’s big, he’s strong and he’s fast, but he hasn’t been able to get onto the field yet. As a junior, it’s about time to make the jump but the new playbook will level the playing field.

The two true freshmen included above — Brendan Rice and Keith Miller III — nearly made the cut into the top list, but the potential loss of fall camp creates a clear separation between the guys who have experience in the program and those who don’t. Rice and Miller will have a shot to win some snaps, but it is more likely than not that they are too raw to contribute when the season starts.

That could change though.

This wide receiver group may go through some shakeups during the first half of the season as the coaching staff tries to find the right combinations of players. For example, could Daniel Arias find a role as a big-bodied receiver who can motion in to the tight end spot? If the defense matched a cornerback up against him, he could move to tight end and win his blocking assignment. If the defense matches a linebacker with him, Arias would flex out to wide receiver and be too fast for his defender.

Essentially, Arias is too fast to be covered by linebackers and he’s too big and strong to be covered by defenseive backs. At least, in theory.

Arias will have to learn two different jobs, learn proper blocking technique and then actually execute his assignments. It won’t be easy, but it’s his best path to the field.

The West Coast offense has exploded over the past few years, primarily because of how easy it is to exploit matchups like the one Arias — and Nixon, too — could create. Versatility will likely be valued by the offensive coaching staff and receivers who can serve multiple roles will see the field more than a burner, or a route-runner, or a jump ball guy.

That’s an important distinction to make considering just how many receivers are competing for snaps. Shenault’s versatility makes him a favorite to see some snaps, while Arias needs to prove himself as a blocker to climb the depth chart.

Jaylon Jackson has the speed to serve as a deep threat, but that makes him the type of one-trick pony that doesn’t succeed in a modern West Coast offense. If he develops as a route-runner, then he can punish cornerbacks who want to give him an oversized cushion. If he develops as a threat with the ball in his hands, then he could prove himself worthy of manufactured touches on jet sweeps or screens.

If Jackson can make one of those improvements, he could become a piece of the CU offense.

Tune in next week when Henry breaks down the next section of his Buffs two-deep depth chart.