16. The age you thought was amazingly huge when you were a five-year old, and the same one that seems impossibly young, even in your 20’s. 16 is always the number of teams left when a tourney starts to get interesting. It is both a perfect square (4 squared) and fourth power (2 to the fourth). It is the smallest integer divisible by five unique numbers. And it is the ever-shrinking number of teams that will be kicking off the NBA Playoffs this weekend.
It’s also the number of wins your Denver Nuggets need to raise another banner to the Ball Arena rafters.
It seems an even more achievable something when you consider that the team just rattled off three-quarters of that (12) on a win streak to wrap up their season. That they had sixteen wins to start their year by their 22nd game. The idea that another ring is that tantalizingly close… the number seems impossibly small and somehow insurmountable all at once.
And the path this team will take to the top of that mountain looks both steep and arduous. If they make it there, they are very likely to face some personal demons along the way. A route that will certainly include the Minnesota Timberwolves, then most likely the San Antonio Spurs AND the Oklahoma City Thunder, and if they are talented and smart and lucky enough to get themselves that far, then to face the best the East will have to offer, in the probable form of Detroit, New York, or Boston. Only four wins in each of those four rounds, and the Nuggets are back on top of the basketball world. So. Very. Close.
On their path to the 2022-23 title, the Nuggets only lost four games during those playoffs: one to the Timberwolves, two to the Phoenix Suns, none to the Los Angeles Lakers, and one to the Miami Heat. Their 16-4 record was the 15th-best run to a title in the history of the league. But hey, you can lose 12 over the playoffs, as long as you win those other 16.
Were the regular season head-to-head matchups from that championship year predictive of the way those playoffs might play out? Not particularly. The Nuggets had split the season series with the Wolves (2-2) before the 4-1 trouncing. They similarly split with the Suns (2-2) over that regular season before knocking them out 4-2 in the playoffs. Maybe it was more predictive against the Lakers? Nope, they also split that season series 2-2 before sweeping their longtime playoff boogeymen in the Western Conference Finals. The only semi-telling season series was Denver sweeping Miami 2-0 in the regular season before the gentleman’s sweep gave the the title on their home court. It was heady stuff from a team that barely looked threatened along the way.
Even if not perfectly predictive, what about this season’s season series against each of the teams listed as the Nuggets probable paths? They hold a 3-1 edge against Minnesota, and a similar 3-1 mark against San Antonio. While the Thunder hold a 3-1 mark against Denver this season, the only clear-cut decision was an early season 10-point victory by OKC. An overtime game, and last-second three handed the next two to the Thunder, and the final game, a Nuggets victory, was played primarily by guys who will see little to no action in the playoffs. They were all close close games in what should only be a close close series.
Should Denver make it’s way past them all and into the Finals, the season records against those East teams aren’t any less daunting. The Nuggets went 0-2 against the Pistons (losing by two and three points, respectively), split their two games with the Celtics, and also were swept 0-2 by the Knicks. Against any of those teams mentioned above, Denver only has home court advantage over the Timberwolves and the Knicks. The path looks steep.
But not impossible. Their 12-win streak to wrap up the season came with some impressive wins, some frustrating near-disasters, and a nearly-finally-intact team. A team that is amazingly difficult to beat once whole. Every foe on the above list beat Denver at least once. But beating them four times? Best of luck with that.
It’s finally time. It’s really here. The NBA playoffs kick off this weekend, and if those pesky problematic perspicacious Nuggets can only just win a sweet scant sixteen more games before losing four times to any one of the above teams, they will get themselves another trophy, banner, and extra-sparkly ring. That doesn’t sound so hard, does it?
