“The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that’s the way to bet.”
– Damon Runyon
My ex and I made fairly regular trips to Las Vegas when I was living in L.A., and every year we made it there, starting in 2009, I’d place an offseason bet on the Denver Nuggets to win the whole shebang. I placed those bets annually for a dozen years, and then just didn’t happen to make it to Vegas over the summer of 2022.
G0d. D@mnit.
Sometimes you simply place the best bets you can make based on the information you’ve got, and sometimes you simply bet with your heart, but more often than not, it’s some combination of the two. Life is a series of bets, in a way. I’ll bet I will be happier with this new job than my old one. I’ll bet I’d like living in this place more than that place. I’ll bet I’d like the pot roast on this menu better than the grilled chicken. I’ll bet I can spend the remainder of my days with this person.
Some bets you win, and some bets you lose… or even simply call off.
When the Denver Nuggets decided not to tender an offer to Peyton Watson this past offseason – while simultaneously locking up the services of teammate Christian Braun – they were placing a bet. A bet that they could either afford to match the offer of what other teams might be willing to offer him via restricted free agency, or that they could replace his services with someone similar at a similar rate. And as smart as the new front office braintrust of John Wallace and Ben Tenzer has been, this looks like a bet they may end up losing, even if they do retain PWat’s services beyond this year.
It was a very smart bet, especially according to the ideal of Mr. Runyon set forth up top, as they were betting on steady-but-maybe-minimal growth from Watson, who averaged 8.1 points, 3.4 points, and 1.4 blocks in his 24.4 minutes per game last season. Peyton’s place had been shown to shine on the defensive end of the floor, but his offensive game was still serviceable, if unsteady. And then…
Not sure Wallace and Tenzer were expecting a Western Conference Player of the Week award in his season. Not sure much of anyone had that possibility on their vision boards, but win it he did, on an average of 24.5 points, 8 rebounds, four assists, and 1.5 blocks on a blistering 70% shooting from beyond the three-point line to help a Nuggets team that was playing without megastar Nikola Jokic for a 3-1 record over those four games.
Oops.
It’s an admittedly excellent problem to have, at least as this season plays out, and gives Denver an unexpected force to reckon with as Braun and Cam Johnson both play their way back into the rotation from injury. Watson has covered at both of their positions while they recovered from injury, and only Braun is back, and that at a limited pace as he seems to still be suffering after-affects from his severe ankle injury nearly two months ago. But that quandary may be less excellent after this season if a team brings a bag of money to PWat’s door that the Nuggets are unable or unwilling to match.
No one is saying that will be the course this will take, nor that the seemingly brilliant Wallace/Tenzer duo cannot find ways to creatively keep Peyton if his star continues to ascend. They so decisively won last offseason, I’d be loathe to think there isn’t another ace or two up their sleeves.
There’s also little doubt they have placed themselves in a bit of a precarious spot by not having locked up what now looks to be a star it would have hard to predict ascending. It’s hard to picture Peyton not starting at small forward or shooting guard even after Braun and Johnson have both healed, given the production he’s seen with this new opportunity, and the two-way game he provides. The depth the team will have when everyone is fully healthy is an exciting and unforeseen wrinkle in this highly unexpected season. Here’s hoping the Nuggets can make it pay off this year, as they may have some exceedingly difficult choices to make at season’s end, based on the bets they placed before the year even got started.
