Handicapping Colorado’s offensive MVP race

BOULDER — Colorado’s offense was disappointing in 2021, to say the least. But a new season, a new staff and maybe a new quarterback could turn things around.

Regardless of how well the Buffs’ offense performs, somebody will be named offensive MVP at the end of the season. We’re going to guess who that will be.

Here are our odds on Colorado’s offensive MVP race:

Alex Fontenot +120

The path is clear for Alex Fontenot.

He’s the obvious choice for RB1 now that Ramon Jefferson has decommitted and the Buffs’ passing game has plenty of work for a quarterback or wide receiver to win the award. If Fontenot plays 10+ games, he’s likely to surpass 1,000 yards on the ground and that should be enough to win the award.

Brendon Lewis +325

Picking the quarterback to win offensive MVP is usually a good bet. But the passing game at CU was so weak last year that pushing the quarterback into MVP range seems unlikely.

Plus, Lewis has his work cut out for him just to win the starting job.

JT Shrout +350

Shrout falls just behind Lewis because he has slightly worse odds to win the job. Even if he does, we could see the younger Lewis injected quickly if all doesn’t go well.

Still, if Shrout takes ahold of the starting job, he could be capable of kick-starting the passing game and riding that wave to an offensive MVP award. At +350, he’s a solid bet.

RJ Sneed +450

This is a tough award for a wide receiver to win but Sneed has a path.

The former All-Big-12 selection is the clear top dog in the receiving room and if that passing game gets back to a baseline level of competence, he will probably be the primary beneficiary. While the rest of the receivers are fighting playing time, Sneed is a lock for a starting job.

Brady Russell +650

The Buffs’ senior tight end was the leading receiver in terms of catches and yards in 2021. While 25 catches and 307 yards should be replicable in 2022, he’ll probably have to improve on those numbers to have a shot at being the MVP.

Russell also contributes in the running game as a blocker and if the Buffs can find success as a committee on the ground (to avoid Fontenot winning the award) and Russell can find 500+ receiving yards, he could be in the conversation.

Daniel Arias +1000

The Buffs’ massive receiver hasn’t been able to translate his freaky athleticism to consistent offensive success yet, but maybe new wide receivers coach Phil McGeoghan can unlock something.

Ahead of his age-24 season, Arias has been praised for his work in spring camp. But out-dueling Sneed seems unlikely, and beating out a running back and a quarterback for the award is even tougher.

Deion Smith +1000

We’ll knock on wood as we say this, but Smith would be the clear No. 1 back if Alex Fontenot can’t go for whatever reason. This would put the MVP race in his control.

Surpassing Fontenot on the depth chart is possible but unlikely. The path for Smith to win the award is to carve out equal reps to Fontenot, outperform him and for the passing game to be lackluster. It’s asking a lot, but at +1000, Smith might be worth the risk.

Casey Roddick +1500

This is the long shot.

Colorado’s offensive line was abysmal last year and would have to be average just for a lineman to have a chance to win the award. But if the line turns things around, Roddick would be the best bet up front.

Roddick is a strong, boxy lineman who should have a chance at the next level a year or two down the line. If he can open up holes, he’ll have a shot to win the award if no running back stands out above the rest.