Grading the Broncos' skill position players after a disappointing season | The Ride

We’re taking a step back from the coaching search this week to reflect on the 2022 season.

A few things went right. Most things went wrong.

I’m working my way through the Broncos’ roster to grade each player individually based on his performance over the course of the past few months. We’re starting this week with the offensive skill positions… and the grades are not good.

Also, I’m assigning the blame for the Broncos’ 11 losses in 2022 to various groups and individuals. So stay tuned for that in the second half of this column.

Alright… let’s relive the unforgettable 2022 season.

---

Playmaker Grades

Here’s the criteria:

• Amount of reps doesn’t matter. Missing time because of injury or because you were benched doesn’t factor into the grade. All that matters is what you did with the opportunities you were given.
  
• There is no grading curve. These grades are NOT based on performance vs. expectations. Undrafted rookies are graded on the exact same scale as superstars. Backups are graded on the same scale as starters.
  
• C+ is an average grade.

We’ll work our way through the entire Broncos roster over the foreseeable future, with the offensive trench players (including the tight ends) up next.

Here’s how the skill players graded out:

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – D+

The 2022 version of Russell Wilson was not what the Broncos were hoping for when they traded a couple of first-round picks and plenty of other assets for the quarterback.

You can find a few numbers that help Wilson’s case, like his 5th-place finish in yards per completion, 12th-place finish in yards per attempt and 14th-place finish in yards per game, but mostly the numbers paint an ugly picture. He was 12th in interceptions, 20th in touchdowns, 27th in quarterback rating and 30th in completion percentage. Many of those marks were career worsts.

Wilson was dealt a poor hand with Nathaniel Hackett holding the keys to the offense and a number of injuries to the players around him making his job even tougher. Still, Wilson was far from maximizing what was at his disposal. He didn’t look like his usual self.

If not for a solid close to the season, this grade could have been worse.

Brett Rypien – D

For a backup quarterback, Brett Rypien wasn’t all that bad. We aren’t grading on a curve, though.

In his four appearances and two starts, Rypien finished below Wilson on a per-snap basis in almost every category. He completed 60% of his passes with two touchdowns and four interceptions, which led to a 63.8 passer rating.

It’s worth noting that Rypien had a very solid game against the Cardinals. He threw for almost 200 yards while throwing one pick and one touchdown. He completed 80% of his passes in that win. That game alone moved him up a full grade.

Running Backs

Javonte Williams – C-

Losing Javonte Williams in the Week 4 matchup against the Raiders was a season-altering moment for the 2022 Broncos. Williams was the engine behind the Broncos and his departure, along with other incidents, forced Denver to rotate a handful of free-agent backs through the offense.

But Williams wasn’t playing his best ball at the start of the year. He put up 204 yards on 4.3 yards per carry in the 3-1/2 games he played. He added 76 receiving yards, but his 4.8 yards per catch were only ahead of Devine Ozigbo, Montrell Washington and Russell Wilson for the Broncos this season. Throw in his goal-line fumble against the Seahawks and it’s tough to give Williams even an average grade for his performance.

Melvin Gordon – F

Melvin Gordon went from the league’s 11th-leading rusher in 2021 to unplayable in the second half of 2022.

Gordon opened the season with a goal-line fumble in the Broncos’ Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. Two weeks later, he fumbled twice more. In Week 4 against the Raiders, Gordon was essentially cut out of the game plan. His first touch came late in the second quarter, and it was a fumble returned for a touchdown, which gave the Raiders the lead.

Gordon’s time in Denver appeared to be done, but a season-ending injury to Javonte Williams forced the Broncos to keep Gordon around in a limited role for six more weeks before a final fumble resulted in his release.

Gordon’s final year in Denver will be remembered for the fumbles, but he wasn’t performing particularly well even when he was holding onto the ball. His 3.5 yards per carry were .8 yards worse than any other Broncos back with at least five carries this season. Nobody in the NFL had as many carries as Gordon at a lower efficiency.

Mike Boone – C-

When Javonte Wiliams went down and Melvin Gordon couldn’t hold onto the ball, Mike Boone had a chance to take over the backfield. He had 85 yards from scrimmage against the Colts, the first game after Williams’ injury but two weeks later he sustained a high ankle sprain that knocked him out of the lineup for more than a month. He returned for two games in December before the injury flared up again, ending his season.

Boone’s 102 rushing yards are the second-most of his career and his 96 receiving yards are a new career high. His 4.3 yards per carry were the worst of his five-year career.

Boone’s time in Denver may be up, given his contract has expired, and despite a few flashes of speed, there isn’t much to show for it. He was healthy for half of Denver’s games and provided 255 yards from scrimmage.

Latavius Murray – C+

Latavius Murray was exactly what the Broncos needed at running back. The 32-year-old back stepped in when the Broncos were out of options and carried the backfield for most of the season. He finished with more than 700 rushing yards and 827 total yards from scrimmage.

Murray’s grade may seem low, but that’s because he got significantly better as the season wore on. He averaged three yards per carry or less in four of his first seven games with the Broncos. Then he averaged four yards per carry or more in each of the final five games of the season. His 4.4 yards per carry for the season are nothing special, but his 5.3 yards per carry over the final five weeks of the season would have ranked sixth in the NFL over the course of the season, and four of the players in front of Murray are quarterbacks.

The Broncos could opt to bring Murray back for a second season in Denver, but he turns 33 this week, and putting all of your eggs in a 30-plus-year-old back’s basket is generally a bad idea. As a depth piece, Murray could make a lot of sense.

Chase Edmonds – C+

When the Broncos picked up Chase Edmonds at the trade deadline, they expected him to touch the ball more than 32 times. But Edmonds’ health only allowed him onto the field five times.

For the most part, Edmonds’ numbers lined up with his career averages. His 4.8 yards per carry were a little better than his average and his 5.2 attempts per game were a half-attempt below his usual. His six receptions were one less per game than average, but his 61 yards on those receptions were significantly more than his average per catch.

The big problem for Edmonds this year was a lack of availability. When he was on the field, he was solid at worst, and he showed some pop as well. He could be a key to bolstering the passing attack next season if the Broncos opt to pay him his $6 million salary for next season or find a compromise.

Marlon Mack – B+

Marlon Mack was a rotational piece in the second half of the season, but he was solid in the few times he received opportunities. He touched the ball 24 times and scored on two of them. He averaged 5.3 yards per carry.

Tyler Badie – A

Does Tyler Badie deserve a grade for playing nine snaps of offense this season? No.

But the rookie caught a 24-yard touchdown in the season finale, so we’ll give him his A.

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton – C+

Expectations were sky-high for the Broncos’ 27-year-old receiver. At the start of the season, he was a full year removed from his return from a torn ACL. He had a new, bright-minded, offensive head coach. Most importantly, he had a star quarterback throwing him the ball for the first time in his career. The results didn’t quite meet expectations.

Sutton finished the season with 64 catches, 829 yards and two touchdowns. By the numbers, it was Sutton’s second-best statistical season of his career despite playing 15 games, the fewest outside of the ACL season.

Sutton was 27th among receivers in routes run, 26th in targets, 34th in catches, and 31st in yards, and 71 receivers had more than his two touchdowns. The lack of touchdowns is an issue, so was his uncharacteristically poor blocking. He also tied for the league lead with five drawn pass interferences and finished third in yards off of those penalties. Factor in the other issues in the offense, and I’m willing to call Sutton’s season extremely average.

The biggest disappointment from Sutton was his lack of big plays. His specialty when he entered the league was out-jumping defenders for balls deep downfield, but we didn’t see much of that from him in 2022, except when he wrestled a ball away from Montrell Washington deep down the middle. He was a solid possession receiver who could keep an offense on time in the middle of the field, but jump-starting his downfield production should be the priority for 2023.

Jerry Jeudy – B+

It’s tough to remember now, but early in the season we were worried about Jerry Jeudy. The third-year receiver had followed up a 102-yard opening-night performance with back-to-back duds in the teens. After that, he only played one full game in which he didn’t post at least 50 yards.

Jeudy led the Broncos with 67 catches, 972 yards and six touchdowns. He ran the 46th-most routes in the NFL but finished 22nd in yards, 30th in catches and 30th in targets. Only 18 players had more touchdowns and only eight players had more yards per target. Despite the flaws in the offense, Jeudy’s strong finish left him with WR1 numbers, especially when you factor in the time lost to injury.

Whether Jeudy ever grows into a truly elite receiver in the NFL depends on how much he grows as a contested-catch and jump-ball option. If he figures that part out, there’s no reason he can’t be a DeAndre Hopkins-type threat. Otherwise, he figures to be a solid top option and annual Pro Bowl contender if the offense around him levels up.

KJ Hamler – D+

This is one of the toughest grades to give. Hamler had seven catches in seven games but was hardly used in a couple of those games. When he did catch a ball, it was almost always a game-changing play. He averaged almost 25 yards per catch in an offense that desperately needed big plays. Still, his yards per route run was only ahead of Montrell Washington, Brandon Johnson and Tyrie Cleveland, among the Broncos receivers.

Hamler also made a few surprising plays as a blocker. Despite being the smallest player on the roster, he was more than willing to go after linebackers in the running game.

In the end, Hamler’s explosive plays don’t make up for how quiet he was for the most part when on the field. The flashes are reason for excitement in 2023, though… if he can stay healthy.

Kendall Hinton – C

Kendall Hinton didn’t get a spot on the Broncos’ initial 53-man roster, but he was quickly elevated from the Broncos’ practice squad. In going back through the season, Hinton probably surprised me the most with how highly he graded out.

No, a C- is nothing special, but for a pure depth player to be within earshot of league average is a great sign. Still only 25, Hinton could be a starting slot receiver sometime in the near future.

Here’s what the numbers say: Hinton finished 95th in the NFL in routes run, 96th in receptions and 97th in yards. He was not, however, one of the 135 wide receivers with a touchdown catch. He played a little over 50% of his snaps in the slot but his numbers compared to the rest of the league did not change significantly when he moved inside.

Hinton is one small step away from being a slot receiver worthy of a spot in the rotation. Imagine him in a WR3A or WR3B role, splitting reps with a true speed threat.

Brandon Johnson – D-

Like many of the other players on this list, Brandon Johnson was asked to do far too much this season thanks to injuries at his position. For an undrafted rookie, dodging an F grade is a solid start, and Johnson was able to squeak above that benchmark.

Johnson ran 128 routes in 2022, which ranked 134th in the NFL. In other words, he played a fairly typical, or maybe slightly expanded, No. 5 wide receiver role. Compared to other receivers with a similar number of opportunities, Johnson disappointed. He caught six balls for 42 yards on 128 targets. Of 22 Broncos who ran a route in 2022, Johnson finished 21st in yards per route run. His touchdown against the Panthers bumps his grade up.

Johnson has the tools to hold down an NFL roster spot, but he has plenty of work to do between now and then.

Jalen Virgil – B+

Jalen Virgil, an undrafted rookie out of Appalachian State, was a beneficiary of a small sample size. He was targeted four times on 43 routes—roughly half the rate Jerry Jeudy is targeted—but turned those four targets into two catches for 75 yards and a touchdown. His 66-yard catch-and-run touchdown against the Titans skews all of the numbers in his favor. Still, he finished with the best passer rating when targeted among Broncos and only Jeudy finished with more yards per route run.

Again, these grades aren’t necessarily a predictor of future success. They only measure what a player did with the opportunities he was given, and Virgil knocked that test out of the park. Virgil has the tools to be a productive player—he’s an athletic freak—but there was probably a reason we didn’t see more of him in 2022.

Freddie Swain – B-

Freddie Swain was a late addition for the Broncos, appearing in three games at the end of the year. Like many others, he was a beneficiary of a small sample size. One of his 62 routes run for the Broncos was a 50-yard catch in the season finale, and that grab saved him from a bottom-of-the-barrel grade. He only had three other catches, which totaled 24 yards.

Swain will be in the running for one of the Broncos’ final roster spots in 2023, but will most likely be a depth option who could be promoted from the practice squad if needed.

---

The Blame Game

The Broncos lost a lot of games in 2022. (Sorry to bring them back up.) I’m going to assign blame for those losses.

Here’s how we’re going to do it:

For each reason that the Broncos lost games, I’m going to take a stab at how many more games they would have won if they’d been at league average in that area.

Some of the categories will overlap. For example, improved play for the offensive line would have led to more wins. Offensive line play would also have improved with average health, and that would also lead to more wins. For that reason, the losses won’t add up to the 11 the Broncos had during the season.

Let’s jump in…

Injuries: 3 games

With average injury luck, I think the Broncos would have finished at 8-9 instead of 5-11.

Measuring injury luck is difficult, but it’s clear the Broncos were one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL. They had 28 players on injured reserve at some point during the season, trailing only the Titans. 23 players finished the year on injured reserve, which tied for the most, and the Broncos had the third-most money tied up in players who were on injured reserve, according to Spotrac.

It’s tough to say who exactly would be back in the “average injury luck” case, but some combination of Javonte Williams, Tim Patrick, Garett Bolles and Randy Gregory would do the heavy lifting in improving the team’s record. More of Ronald Darby, Quinn Meinerz, Greg Dulcich, Justin Simmons and KJ Hamler would have also improved the Broncos’ chances.

Imagine if the Broncos had Javonte Williams against the Titans or Ravens, or in the first Chargers game. All of those games were decided by one score, and the Chargers game went to overtime. In all of those games, the Broncos ran for less than 100 yards. Would Williams have won all of those games? Maybe not. But I think Denver would have gotten at least one of them.

I also think that if Williams had played the full season (which probably wouldn’t happen with average injury luck anyway) he would’ve had at least one game in which he alone carried the offense to victory.

Tim Patrick could have helped out a passing game that struggled all season. Randy Gregory’s penchant for big plays could have sealed a game that the defense ultimately failed to close out. Justin Simmons was a second-team All-Pro, despite missing five games with an injury. Imagine if he had played two or three more.

If all of the Broncos who missed time only missed half as much time, I feel confident saying the Broncos would have won three more games.

Coaching: 3 games

This is a broad category, and I think pitting three games on the coaching is probably a conservative guess.

Think of all the things that fall under this category:

• In-game decision-making, which could easily have been the difference against the Seahawks or against the Colts, when the Broncos had a three-point lead and the ball in the red zone with just over two minutes to play.
  
• The offensive play-calling, which I think was the biggest reason the Broncos had the worst scoring offense in the NFL.
  
• The offensive scheme change, which may have been the right call in the long run but took far too long to work out. Plus, would better coaching have helped the offensive line learn the new blocking scheme faster?
  
• The lack of contact in training camp, which may or may not have had a hand in the slow start to the year, or even in the injuries that followed. Could a few drives in the preseason have helped the offense settle in and flip the results of some close games at the beginning of the year?

The flip side of this is that you would also have to give “league-average coaching” to the defensive side of the ball, which might knock them down a peg depending on how you view defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and his staff.

Still, I think three more wins with average coaching is a fair assessment.

Quarterback play: 2 games

This one is more tangible than some of the others.

Here’s what league-average quarterback play would look like for the Broncos:

• 17 more completions on 6 fewer attempts.
• 109 more yards.
• 5.5 more touchdowns.
• 2 fewer interceptions.
• 11 fewer sacks. (The Broncos had 23 more sacks than league average, and I’m splitting the blame between the quarterbacks and the offensive line.)

These numbers aren’t as big as I expected. Another 2.2 points per game (which come form the touchdowns) is valuable but I’m not sure replacing Russell Wilson with a league-average quarterback leads to many more wins. His hot finish helped his case.

However, replacing Wilson with a top-tier quarterback could have been a significant improvement.

Melvin Gordon: 2 games

If Melvin Gordon didn’t fumble against the Seahawks or the Raiders, I think the Broncos would win both of those games. Maybe Denver still would have lost the Raider game. The tiebreaker is the general lack of juice Gordon had, especially late in the season. Replace his 3.5 yards per carry with the team’s 4.4 yards per carry and I think that gets you a second win, even if Gordon not fumbling in the Raider game doesn’t.

The offensive line: 2 games

This number might seem small, but it’s important to remember that there are very few good offensive lines in the NFL.

Pro Football Focus ranked the Broncos as the 17th pass-blocking team and 15th run-blocking team. Football Outsiders ranked the line as the 20th run-blocking line but the 30th pass-blocking line.

That pass-blocking stat is where I think most of the difference comes from. As noted above, the Broncos gave up 63 sacks, which was three more than any other team and 23 more than the league average. Russell Wilson deserves a big chunk of the blame, but there’s no doubt the protection could have been better.

An average line is probably worth two more wins, but I’m tempted to say it’s only worth one. I know it sounds crazy, but offensive line play is worse across the NFL than ever before. The Broncos should still invest in the line and try to build one of the few good units, but the difference between the 2022 Broncos line and the 2022 league average isn’t as big as you might expect.

Special Teams: 2 games

It’s easy to forget about special teams, but the Broncos’ were among the worst in the NFL.

The Broncos were 28th in field goal percentage and 25th in extra point percentage. They were last in kick return average. They were middle of the pack or below in the rest of the key special teams stats. The Broncos’ average starting field percentage was their own 25.88-yard line, which was the worst mark in the NFL.

Football Outsiders’ metrics had Denver as the fourth-worst special teams unit in the NFL. They estimated that the Broncos lost 18.2 points through poor special teams play and another 15.2 points through bad luck. If those marks were league average, Denver would have ranked 26th in the NFL in scoring, instead of last.