Five steps for the Broncos to beat the New York Jets

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Once again, the season is on the line for the Broncos.

The Broncos will host the New York Jets at Empower Field at Mile High on Sunday. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:25 p.m. and the game will be broadcast on CBS. Both teams carry a 1-3 record into the game, creating massive stakes.

Here’s how the Broncos can pull out the win…

Attack the boundaries

The Jets’ strength has been in the middle of their defense in the first handful of games of the season.

Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams was an All-Pro last season. His fellow defensive tackle Quinton Jefferson is the only Jet with multiple sacks this season.

At linebacker, Quincy Williams leads the NFL in pass breakups among linebackers and is PFF’s No. 1 cover linebacker. CJ Mosley is next to him, with the fifth-most pass breakups among linebackers and an interception.

Safety Jordan Whitehead leads the NFL with three interceptions.

So what should the Broncos do? Attack the edges of the Jets’ defense.

That might sound crazy, considering cornerback Sauce Gardner is on the boundary, but he’s had a slow start to the year. PFF’s tracking has Gardner with a 116 passer rating allowed when targeted. Pro Football Reference has Gardner at a 99 rating. Gardner also leads the NFL with seven missed tackles.

The Jets’ other starter on the boundary, D.J. Reed, will miss the game with a concussion. Brandin Echols, the top backup on the boundary, will miss the game with a hamstring injury.

The teeth of the Jets’ defense should be in the middle of the field, so getting to the edge makes sense, especially in the running game.

The Broncos have had a slight strength when running to the boundary so far this season. They’ve averaged 4.0 yards per carry when running in the A and B gaps, and they’ve averaged 4.7 yards per carry when running further outside.

Pack the box

Breece Hall is the engine of the Jets offense.

One year after tearing his ACL in a game against the Broncos, the second-year back has returned to the field, and he looks every bit as talented as when he was a second-round pick.

The Jets are near the bottom of the league in most offensive stats. They rank in the bottom three in yards, first downs and yards per drive. They’re 25^th in points.

But the Jets are 6^th in yards per rush attempt thanks to Hall’s 6.6 yards per carry, a mark that ranks second in the NFL behind Devon Achane. His 3.8 yards after contact per attempt is the best in the league.

The Jets haven’t found a consistent secondary back behind Hall. When Hall is on the field, New York has a top-10 offense by expected points added per play. When Dalvin Cook is in the game, the Jets rank last by a wide margin.

The Broncos should load up the box and remove the only true strength in the New York offense: Breece Hall. 

Press

The Broncos’ soft zone coverage in the first four weeks of the season hasn’t worked.

At halftime in Chicago, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph decided to play more man coverage, and the results were great. After being torched for about 120 minutes of game time, a simplified defense helped the Broncos’ defense bounce back.

More press-man coverage might be a scary thought since Damarri Mathis and Ja’Quan McMillian will be one-on-one with whoever they line up against. Eliminating the easy short completions is worth the risk, though.

Jets quarterback Zach Wilson is coming off his best game of the season, but out of 34 qualified quarterbacks, he still ranks 34^th in success percentage, 32^nd in passer rating, and 31^st in yards per attempt, completion percentage and yards per game. Even if the young cornerbacks get beat, Wilson might not find the open man and might not be able to get the ball to him if he does.

Send Five

The other change the Broncos made at halftime was sending five players at the quarterback more often. They should do that again this week.

By rushing five players, the Broncos can generate more one-on-ones for their pass rushers. Jets tackle Mekhi Becton has struggled so far this season, and his lack of quickness is a significant factor. If the Broncos can get speedy edge rusher Nik Bonitto one-on-one with Becton, there’s a good chance he’ll get to the quarterback.

The Jets pass block win rate, a state from ESPN Analytics, has improved every week this season, from 30% to 35% to 50% to 68%. For the season, the Jets rank 27^th, but they’d be in the top five if they had played all season like they did last week.

Regardless of whether the Jets’ offensive line has turned a corner or not, creating as many one-on-ones as possible should be a priority for the Broncos this week.

Focus on the inches

Vic Fangio and his “death by inches” motto have been gone for a couple of years, but the Broncos might need to bring it back this week.

Penalties have been an issue all season in Denver. While they’ve only given up the 15th-most yards on penalties, they rank sixth in total penalties and fourth in pre-snap penalties. Meanwhile, the Jets are the only team in the NFL with less than 100 penalty yards this season. Winning the penalty battle would go a long way toward winning the game.

In what should be a grimy football game—that’s the way the Jets like to play—winning in the red zone, on third downs and on special teams could be the only way to win the game.