Everything you need to know about Colorado's 2021 football schedule

BOULDER — It took a little longer than usual, but the Pac-12 has finally decided on a schedule for the 2020 football season.

The conference released the schedule Tuesday morning. Colorado will wrap up a gnarly non-conference schedule and then head to the desert to take on Arizona State in the first week of conference play. The Buffs will head back home to take on USC in Week 2. It’s safe to say that Colorado wasn’t among the winners on schedule drop day.

ANNOUNCED: The 2021 #Pac12FB schedule!!! 🏈🙌

Full info ➡️ https://t.co/KWW6lV3ArG#BackThePac pic.twitter.com/9GBbRJL8Vz

— Pac-12 Conference (@pac12) March 2, 2021

All of Colorado’s conference opponents and the locations of the games were determined years in advance by the Pac-12’s schedule rotation. This year, Colorado won’t play Stanford or Washington State and the same will be true in 2022. Those are two of the more beatable teams in the North division, which is part of the reason Colorado’s schedule is so tough.

In 2023 and 2024, Colorado will miss Washington and Cal. The next two years, Colorado will miss Stanford and Oregon.

In a Tuesday press release, CU said that season-ticket renewals will begin in mid-March and those who renew will have first opportunity to buy tickets to the Texas A&M game.

Single game tickets will go on sale in July.

CU is currently preparing for several scenarios regarding fan attendance in the fall. Those scenarios are dependent on the course of the COVID-19 pandemic and public health guidelines.

COLORADO’S 2021 FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Fri., Sept. 3 vs. Northern Colorado
Sat., Sept. 11 vs. Texas A&M (in Denver)
Sat., Sept. 18 vs. Minnesota
Sat., Sept. 25 @ Arizona State
Sat., Oct. 2 vs. USC
Sat., Oct. 9 BYE
Sat., Oct. 16 vs. Arizona
Sat., Oct. 23 @ Cal
Sat., Oct. 30 @ Oregon
Sat., Nov. 6 vs. Oregon State
Sat., Nov. 13 @ UCLA
Sat., Nov. 20 vs. Washington
Fri., Nov. 26 @ Utah

Fri., Dec. 3 Pac-12 Championship Game

Here’s my ranking of the toughest games on Colorado’s schedule this season

1. @ Oregon
2. Texas A&M*
3. @ ASU
4. USC
5. Washington
6. Minnesota*
7. @ Utah
8. @ UCLA
9. @ Cal
10. OSU
11. Arizona
12. Northern Colorado*

(* denotes non-conference game)

So what does that mean? Well, let’s set a few goals…

First, Colorado wants to make a bowl game.

That means it needs six wins. This one is pretty simple, just find six wins on the schedule.

Home wins over Northern Colorado, Arizona and OSU are crucial to making a bowl game. CU will have to fight to beat any other teams on the schedule, though it may be favored in a couple of those matchups.

From there, CU needs three wins from the rest of its schedule. My rankings say there’s a trio of road games the Buffs should be looking at, but if CU could pull an upset or two, it would make the path to a bowl game much simpler.

Second, Colorado wants to finish the season ranked.

Typically, eight or nine wins does the trick for Pac-12 teams. Let’s say nine wins is the goal.

Let’s find the three losses that Colorado could afford. I’d count games against Oregon and Texas A&M as losses and then say that Colorado can drop one against ASU, USC, Washington or Minnesota. Everything else needs to got the Buffs’ way.

If Colorado could get through the first five games before the bye with two losses (or even just one ?), the Buffs would have a fighter’s chance of going 9-3 and finishing the season in the top 25.

Third, Colorado wants to win the Pac-12.

To do this, the Buffs need to make the Pac-12 title game. That means winning the Pac-12 South during the regular season by having the best record in conference games.

As it stands on March 1, I’d give ASU and USC the best odds of winning the South, with Colorado, Utah and probably UCLA right on their heels. (Sorry, Arizona.)

Colorado opens conference play against ASU and USC and those games will go a long way in deciding the conference race. If CU loses both, that’ll be about it for them in terms of playing for a title.

Even just splitting those games gives Colorado a chance. Odds are that the South champion will have an 8-1 or 7-2 record. Two years ago, Utah actually won with three losses.

The biggest hurdle for Colorado in the Pac-12 South race is that Oregon doesn’t play ASU or USC. Oregon is, potentially, the toughest team in the conference depending on their quarterback situation, so not making ASU or USC play them is tough for CU. USC doesn’t play Washington either.

So, when you look at the way the Pac-12 South stacks up, Colorado probably has the toughest path of any of the contenders.

Here’s the formula though: Beat Arizona, OSU, Cal, UCLA and Utah. Split the games against Oregon, USC, Washington and ASU. If Colorado can do that, they’ll likely be part of a tiebreaker that determines who goes to the championship game. And remember, losses to north division teams and teams that aren’t part of that tiebreaker will be the key to winning.