Captive, but not captivated

At its peak, NBC’s legendary sitcom Friends garnered a fanbase, accolades, and ratings that might even make a television executive blush. The show surpassed being a hit early on in its arc, and went on to be one of the biggest juggernauts in television history. When the show was finally ending, the execs knew a spinoff might never pull the kind of ratings and accolades the original had, but were still sure they could ride that wave a fair bit longer and keep a large part of the audience who had fallen for Friends.

And then came Joey.

While the Matt LeBlanc-led show survived a couple of seasons, the fans were quick and unkind, dropping off steadily until NBC had to admit they just couldn’t find the formula to make it appeal to a broader fanbase. Sometimes you have those fish in a barrel, and you still  just cannot find a way to shoot them.

Has there ever been a bigger “barrel” of fish than the currently captive COVID audience of today? Trapped in our homes, we’ve been ravenous for quality content and programming. We’ve made monsters out of Tiger King and The Last Dance, not only because they were engaging to watch, but because we simply had nowhere else to go.  Today’s television audience is captive in ways that some of those aforementioned TV execs could only have dreamt of. And since nothing on television garners higher ratings than live sporting events, the culmination of the two could only mean yet-unheard-of ratings bonanzas for all involved. Right?

But then there was the Stanley Cup. And the NBA Finals. And the World Series. And to this point almost half an NFL season. How big did it get? What sort of stratospheric numbers did that live adrenaline rush of professional competition at its finest in front of a virally captive audience come to enjoy?

Well, the truth is that it didn’t. None of it.

The NHL had it’s second worst ratings for a Stanley Cup Finals of the last 20 years, and they seem to have gotten off lucky in comparison, even though they saw a drop-off fro last years ratings of over 60%. The NBA Finals had the smallest audience in their history, and Major League Baseball somehow had it even a little worse. By the conclusion of the World Series, four of the six games played had underperformed to the worst-rated audience numbers in World Series history. Viewership from the MLB Championship games was down a full 25% from last year. Even the ratings colossus NFL has seen some precipitous drops from last season’s audiences. If those fish are even still in that barrel, they are proving mighty hard to draw a bead on.

So how did this happen? What caused a content-starved and locked-down crowd to pass on the programming they have notoriously consumed season after season? Here are a few possibilities that may have played a role in the less-than-anticipated results.

Overlap

With the NBA and NHL being forced to hit the pause button three-quarters of the way through their campaigns, there was a huge lapse in the story arc of their products, and by the time they were even able to formulate a return, they were bumping into the outlay of the MLB and NFL alike. A paradox of choice can often paralyze even the savviest of consumers. If you doubt it, watch your own reaction when the grocery aisle has four kinds of mustard. You can pretty easily sort out the one that best suits your needs, and be on your mustardy way. But when those shelves have 72 varieties of the ground-seed beast, you suddenly realize you have larger life decisions to make.

Similarly, the overlap and wealth of programming seems to have overwhelmed the casual viewer who might tune in to see the spectacle. We went from no sports to a whole lotta sports in no time flat. The cannibalization of each left expectations more than a little flat.

Rhythm

Like it or not, sports have their yearly cadence. They don’t play March Madness in August. Pro sports has a similar ebb and flow. The big dogs have learned to pick their spots on the calendar and squeeze as much as they can out of their time. When games that the sports faithful were used to being played a few months earlier, it didn’t feel the same, and the response showed it.

Noise

There is so much drama added to live sports with the addition of a large and rabid fanbase surrounding the spectacle, and the roar of their approval or disapproval of the proceedings. The Roman Gladiator Coliseum had little on today’s modern games, as the very design of the places is meant only up the ante on the drama that surrounds each contest. It’s a nearly infallible recipe, unless…

It long been noticed that poorly-attended contests tend to also affect the viewing audience. If the local fanbase can’t be bothered to engage with a team, why on earth should the broader audience give it a moment? That feeling was only compounded by the neccessarily-cleared stands. When those areas were originally built for tens of thousands to roar, the silence of no one was even more deafening.

Re-Org

Fans have also found themselves in an utterly unique situation. Their long-held daily routines of work commutes, child care, and social outings have all been thrown for a massive loop, and it’s created a rethinking of priorities and timing in many households. The habits and hobbies that formerly filled our spaces have been supplanted by a whole new set of priorities for ourselves, which can often mean skipping your usual for something a little newer. That cannot help but bleed into the cachet a fan puts into their commitment to catching every contest.

Distractions

Suffice it to say, there have been a few unexpected things to be paying a lot of attention to in 2020. People may have divided attention, at best. But the impacts to viewerships have been nothing short of catastrophic. There’s just a lot going on.

So, is this the beginning of the end? Have we finally started down the slippery slope of sports becoming less-entrenched in our daily lives? Not likely. Most of the savvier business side of these operations see this year as an inevitability that they made the best out of, but not as threat to their long-term health and wealth. Whatever that new normal becomes may have a slightly different flavor to it, but most folks in the know expect professional sport to have a decided and swift comeback when all things settle in.

It’s more likely that one of the most distracting and worrisome years in recent history have simply taken a temporary bite out of the usually-burgeoning leagues. Even in these strange days, most expect a rebound that will carry each team and sport even further down the road, and are will to bet on it enough to eat this dog of a year. Sometimes, having that audience actually locked in their homes can backfire and show them that they don’t need you for their sole entertainment. The long bet says that these leagues will find a way to be captivating again soon enough.