Can Zach Wilson start for Sean Payton’s Denver Broncos?

Zach Wilson is a Denver Bronco.

The Broncos sent a sixth-round pick to the New York Jets in exchange for Wilson and a seventh-round pick. The Jets are also retaining half of Wilson’s salary, which should leave about $2.75 million for the Broncos. All of that is guaranteed.

For those who haven’t followed Zach Wilson’s career closely, I’ll sum it up.

Wilson was a solid high school recruit out of Draper High School. He was a three-star with a handful of Power 5 offers. He chose BYU. Halfway through his true freshman season, he took over as the starter.

Wilson posted solid numbers in his first two seasons, but broke out as a junior in the pandemic-altered 2020 season. He finished second in the nation in completion percentage, third in passing touchdowns and 10th in passing yards per game. His Cougars finished 11-1.

Wilson was a deep-ball specialist with prototypical size and athleticism that helped him earn Jake Plummer comparisons. The Jets chose him with the second pick in the 2021 draft behind Trevor Lawrence.

But Wilson wasn’t without concerns.

College football in 2020 was unique. The pandemic altered schedules. Most teams only played conference games. For BYU, an independent school, that meant trouble. Eight of their 12 opponents flaked. They had to rebuild much of their schedule, and didn’t schedule a Power-5 opponent. It was a cupcake schedule.

Wilson feasted on low-level competition. His deep ball shined, since receivers ran wide open past opposing defenses. This was his red flag. Other concerns revolved around a “hero-ball” mentality that didn’t get punished as often as it probably should have. He forced passes he shouldn’t have.

Wilson started immediately for the Jets. He was a younger rookie, turning 22 a month before the season began. The red flags appeared to be accurate. He threw four touchdowns and nine interceptions in his first six games. He was injured in the sixth game, which knocked him out for the next four games. He avoided turnovers in the final seven games, but didn’t provide a spark, either.

After a disappointing rookie year, hopes were dampened. Then Wilson injured his knee in the preseason opener of his sophomore campaign. He returned in Week 4 and posted a 5-2 record in the next seven games, but his play was lacking. He threw more interceptions than touchdowns. Then he was benched. He played two more games later in the season, but those didn’t inspire confidence.

As you’ve probably heard, the Jets added Aaron Rodgers before the 2022 season, signaling a turning point in Wilson’s career. But Rodgers tore his Achilles in the season-opener and Wilson took over. He played the best ball of his career, but left plenty to be desired. His 60.1 completion percentage was a career best. He threw eight touchdowns and seven interceptions, the first positive ratio of his career.

I dug through three games to get a sense of where Wilson stands as he enters the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. I watched three games. His 23-20 loss to Kansas City in Week 4, his 31-21 win over the Broncos the next week and the 32-6 loss at Buffalo in Week 11 that got him benched for two weeks.

The games against the Broncos and Chiefs were some of his better performances of the year. The game in Buffalo was, obviously, not good.

Overall, I came away more impressed than I expected. Over the past three years, Zach Wilson has become somewhat of a meme, so my expectations were, admittedly, low.

The Zach Wilson-y plays you think of weren’t as numerous as they were in previous seasons. His ability to process what he sees and deliver good balls, especially out of bunch sets and over the middle, has improved since he entered the league. He’s still at his best in the one-on-one game. The biggest problem is that he misses open receivers downfield far too often, whether that’s because he doesn’t see them or the throw is off-target or mis-timed.

If Wilson can do a better job taking advantage of open receivers downfield, which was his strength as a prospect, he could be a starting NFL quarterback. But he leaves far too many plays on the field, and that will probably be his downfall as a Bronco.

Let’s dig in…

The ‘Zach Wilson’ Plays

Let’s start with the ugly stuff.

Wilson had a reputation for making boneheaded plays, either because he didn’t see a defender, didn’t care that a defender was in the way, or just was a bonehead in that moment.

For example, here’s a play against the Broncos…

That might not look like a big deal, but there only 15 seconds remained in the half. And the Jets didn’t have a timeout. It was a good read to see the tight end had leverage in the flat, but it meant that time expired in the half. The Jets missed out on three points. It’s inexcusable.

Here’s another example…

Wilson played a great game against the Chiefs. It was 20-20 in the fourth quarter. The Jets got to midfield. And then this…

It wasn’t a perfect snap, but Wilson took his eye off the ball. The Chiefs ran down the clock and kicked the game-winning field goal at the buzzer. He was 28-of-39 for 245 yards and two touchdowns with no previous turnovers. But in the end, he lost the Jets the game.

Next up is an example of “Hero Ball.”

Wilson rolls out of the pocket. He does a good job to extend the play. He tries to fit a ball in to a crosser late, but the cornerback reads the play and nearly jumps the pass.

This time, Wilson simply doesn’t see the safety in Cover 2 man coverage. He forgets he exists. It’s almost an interception.

These types of play are what Zach Wilson is known for. The first two are absolute killers that can’t happen. It’s that simple.

The last clip is a massive mistake, but it isn’t unheard of. I thought there would be more examples of this, though. Overall, Wilson had a better sense of where defenders were than I expected. He seems to have grown in that department. But elite quarterbacks don’t make that mistake.

I don’t want to minimize the mistakes made above, but I expected more of these plays. A lot more.

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