BOULDER — The Pac-12 has been in a rough place.
Since the College Football Playoff was implemented in 2014, the conference has only placed two teams in the tournament, the fewest of any Power 5 conference. The most recent Pac-12 appearance came in 2016.
If the conference is going to return to the CFP in 2022, it’s going to need to get off to a hot start. A one-loss Pac-12 champion is likely to appear in the playoff, but winning 11 of 12 and then the championship game is a tall task. Losing an early-season game makes that even tougher. Last season, Oregon was the only Pac-12 team to finish non-conference play undefeated, putting the conference’s title hops in serious jeopardy early.
Today we’re ranking the top 10 most important non-conference games in the first three weeks of the season, before widespread Pac-12 play begins in Week 4. The conference has a handful of non-conference games scheduled for late in the year—like BYU @ Stanford and Notre Dame @ USC in the final week of the season—but we’re not interested in those. We’re interested in the first few weeks of the season, which could set the Pac-12 off to a hot start.
Here’s the list:
10) Colorado @ Minnesota
While this game is (very) unlikely to have any direct CFP implications, it could still be an important one for the conference when we look back on the season.
Games like these ones—mid- to low-end teams in power conferences facing off—have a significant impact on the computer rankings at the end of the season. If Colorado beats the Gophers on the road, every win Minnesota can pull out against the top teams in the Big Ten will hurt their resume even more, and the impact of CU’s wins over Pac-12 teams will be slightly diminished.
If Colorado loses, the reverse is true. If CU loses by 30 to the Gophers like it did last year, then the impact will be amplified.
9) Arizona @ Mississippi State
This game is an upset opportunity for the Pac-12. Pull it off, and the conference will be in much better shape in the computer rankings.
Arizona figures to be significantly improved but that doesn’t mean much for a team that saw a 20-game losing streak end last season. New quarterback Jayden de Laura, who came over from Washington State, could be the spark the Wildcats need to regain relevance.
Any game against Mike Leach’s Air Raid could be chaos, and the Wildcats have a chance to capitalize if de Laura can score some points.
8) Arizona State @ Oklahoma State
ASU underwent crazy turnover during the offseason and probably won’t be able to pick up a win over the Cowboys. But, if it does, the Sun Devils could be doing the conference a big favor.
First of all, the Sun Devils have two cupcakes scheduled, along with Oklahoma State. If they can pull off the upset, there’s a good chance they’ll be 3-0 at the start of conference play. Even if Arizona State struggles to keep up in the Pac-12 those wins would add value to the wins they’d be handing Pac-12 opponents.
Secondly, the Big 12 is weak. Oklahoma is the clear favorite despite an even more tumultuous offseason than the one in Tempe, but there are few other contenders. If the Sun Devils knock off the Cowboys, the list would be even shorter.
7) Cal @ Notre Dame
Like Arizona State, Cal scheduled a couple of cupcakes to go along with a really solid opponent. Beat Notre Dame and the Bears could be cooking heading into conference play. If not, nobody will be surprised.
It’s unlikely that Cal’s defense could carry it to CFP relevance in November, but the Pac-12 is in desperate need of options and Cal is one upset away from providing one.
6) Fresno State @ USC
USC is one of a few Pac-12 teams that is capable of going to CFP. Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison form a new core that may take some time to gel in L.A. but should be one of the more talented teams in the country.
Luckily for the Trojans, the early-season slate is simple. A non-conference game against Notre Dame looms large in the final week of the season, but if USC can hold serve against Rice and Fresno State in the early-going, it’ll be in good shape.
5) Washington State @ Wisconsin
This might be too high to place a game with a 14.5-point spread but it’s a big opportunity for the conference.
Washington State won seven regular-season games a year ago and came close to stealing a couple more. If the Cougars can knock off the Badgers they’ll likely be 3-0 in non-conference play and could provide a dark horse candidate for big success in 2022.
4) BYU @ Oregon
Oregon is one of the Pac-12’s true title contenders and it’s got a tough start to the season.
BYU is always out for vengeance against the Pac-12 and they’ve been successful over the past couple of years. Oregon is a touchdown favorite in this game and seems to have the better squad, but a loss here would put a massive dent in the conference’s playoff hopes.
3) Michigan State @ Washington
Michigan State and Washington have a lot in common. Both are strong programs that are totally capable of getting to the CFP. Neither seems set up to get there this season.
Washington has been in a slump but could pull out quickly with new head coach and offensive guru Kalen DeBoer, and new quarterback Michael Penix.
The Spartans will head into Seattle as 3.5-point favorites. The sky will still be the limit for the winner and the loser will face loads of questions.
2) Utah @ Florida
Utah won the Pac-12 last year.
It was #5 in the CFP Rankings in 2019 before losing to Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship.
Now, the Utes will be a 2-point underdog in The Swamp to open what could be their best season yet.
When the Pac-12’s non-conference performance is evaluated, this is one of the two games that clearly stand out from the rest.
1) Oregon @ Georgia
Oregon knocked off Ohio State last year so why can’t the Ducks take down the Dawgs?
Georgia is coming off a national championship but it lost a bunch of the players responsible for getting it there. This will be a tall task for Oregon—that’s the reason for the 16.5-point spread—but a win from the Ducks could be the spark for a special season.
