After ending their five-game winning streak in Week 13, the Broncos got back in the win column against the Chargers on Sunday.
Now, Denver enters Week 15 with a 7-6 record, which is tied with five other teams for the final two playoff spots in the AFC.
The New York Times built a simulator that projects the likelihood of each NFL team making the playoffs. With a win this week, the Times projects the Broncos could have anywhere between a 62% and an 80% chance of making the playoffs depending on other results around the league. A 71% chance
With a loss, they could sit anywhere from a 22% chance to a 54% chance.
Despite an overall good week for the Broncos—they won their game and the team they were pulling for won more often than not in the other games—Denver still isn’t sitting in playoff position.
Take a lot at the race for the AFC’s three Wild Card spots, heading into Week 15:
- Cleveland Browns (8-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6)
- Indianapolis Colts (7-6)
————- - Houston Texans (7-6)
- Denver Broncos (7-6)
- Cincinnati Bengals (7-6)
- Buffalo Bills (7-6)
The Broncos can hold a playoff spot after this week if one of two scenarios happens:
a. The Broncos win and the Texans lose.
or
b. The Broncos win, the Colts lose, the Bills lose and the Browns lose.
The Broncos could control their own destiny—meaning they’re guaranteed a playoff spot if they win the rest of their games—if they win this week and the Bills lose.
Here’s who Broncos fans should root for this week…
Tier 1
The most important game, by far.
No. 1 – A Broncos win at the Lions — If the Broncos pull out a win this week in a game that is widely considered the toughest remaining on their schedule, they’ll be in prime position for the postseason. They would need to win two of their final three games to have a good chance of getting in.
With a loss, they may need to win their final three games to make the playoffs.
Tier 2
Games that include the competition for AFC playoff spots.
No. 2 – A Patriots win versus the Chiefs
Call me crazy, but I’m putting Patriots at Chiefs second on my list.
This game doesn’t significantly impact the Broncos’ chances of making the playoffs, but a Patriots win would open up the race for the AFC West. With a Chiefs loss and a Broncos win in Week 15, Denver would take the division crown—and the home playoff game that comes with it—if they win more games than the Chiefs in the season’s final three weeks.
No. 3 – A Cowboys win at the Bills
The Bills are part of the six-way tied for an AFC Wild Card spot. While they haven’t lived up to their talent this season, they’ll be heavy favorites in back-to-back games after this week, and you could argue they’re the most dangerous team in the Wild Card race, in part because they’re the only team other than the Broncos that has their starting quarterback.
No. 4 – A Titans win versus the Texans
The Titans are still technically alive in the playoff race, but they need an undefeated finish and some help to get in. Meanwhile, the Texans are in the thick of the playoff hunt and have a head-to-head win over the Broncos, which could play a factor down the stretch.
No. 5 – A Bears win at the Browns
The Browns enter Week 15 with a one-game lead for the first Wild Card spot, but that lead would evaporate with a loss. The Broncos have a head-to-head win over Cleveland.
No. 6 – A Vikings win at the Bengals
Cincinnati is in a good position, but can Jake Browning really win enough games down the stretch to earn a place in the postseason?
Tier 3
The ideal outcome is slightly ambiguous.
No. 7 – A Colts win versus the Steelers
The New York Times projections suggest a Colts win is much better for the Broncos than a Steelers win. I’m not so sure.
The Steelers have a tougher schedule in the final three weeks, so losses are likely to come eventually. But I guess the Colts are probably the worse team, so they could lose games too.
Essentially, you should cheer for the team that is more likely to lose games in the future, but which team that will be is up to you to decide.
Tier 4
Why not include this one?
No. 8 – A Dolphins win versus the Jets
The Dolphins could knock the Jets out of playoff contention (not that they’re really in it) on Sunday.
More importantly, Miami could build a lead over Buffalo in the AFC East, which is ideal because the Broncos would rather see the Bills (whom they beat) in a tiebreaker than the Dolphins (whom they lost to.)
