Happy Draft Day.
Today might be a day you remember for the rest of your life. Or you’ll forget all about it. Or—in the worst-case scenario—you’ll wish you could forget.
Today we will learn whether the Denver Broncos are planning an upward trajectory, or if they’re taking one more year to lay a foundation before their attempt to climb.
We’ll learn if 2024 is Year 1 of the next era of Denver Broncos football, or if it’s Year Zero… a season meant to mend the wounds caused by the Russell Wilson error before we enter whatever the next era in Denver will be.
If the Broncos draft a quarterback, they’re signaling they’re ready to climb.
If not, they’re spending a season laying foundation.
Without an upgrade at quarterback, the Broncos won’t compete for anything that matters. Their best-case scenario is probably pushing for a .500 season, and Las Vegas would tell you they’re more likely to push for the No. 1 overall pick in 2025.
The Broncos missed out on the postseasoan for the eighth consecutive season last year.
After the season, they moved on from Russell Wilson and replaced him with Zach Wilson.
They cut Justin Simmons and added Brandon Jones.
They traded away Jerry Jeudy, signing Josh Reynolds to replace him.
They didn’t re-sign Lloyd Cushenberry III, choosing to save money by bringing in Sam Mustipher.
They didn’t re-sign Josey Jewell, choosing to save money by bringing in Cody Barton.
Maybe the fringe signings, internal development and injury returnees will counteract the downgrades above. On paper, though, they became worse.
Are the Broncos ready for a savior? Or do they need a year of rehab first?
Instead of drafting a quarterback, the Broncos may have a chance at Brock Bowers, one of the best tight end prospects of the past decade. Imagine how much easier a 2025 rookie quarterback’s job could be with a weapon like Bowers.
If they hit on enough of their eight picks, the Broncos could find themselves in an optimistic position next offseason. The bill for releasing Russell Wilson will be decreased. They’re slated to have $80 million in salary cap space, which would allow them to patch up their remaining holes.
There’s no doubt a rookie quarterback would have a better shot in Denver in 2024 than in 2025.
But what if the Broncos love one of their options this year? Or what if they see more talent on their roster than the outsiders do?
Then they’ll draft a new face of the franchise.
These are the contenders to not just be the primary character in Denver today, but for the next two years and maybe for the next decade or more. Some will cost the 12th pick. Some will cost more. Some will cost less.
Michael Penix Jr.: A battle-tested pocket passer who can throw darts to any spot on the field.
Bo Nix: A system quarterback who could be field-ready by Week 1 if you’re willing to rebuild your offense around him.
Spencer Rattler: Guts. No other quarterback delivers a ball with clean technique when a defender is ready to plant him in the ground.
Drake Maye: The epitome of the modern NFL quarterback, but he only knows Hero Ball and you’re going to have to teach him the game.
JJ McCarthy: A champion. Every single 20-game college starter for the past decade has lost at least two games… except McCarthy. He only lost one. He was the pilot, not the plane, though.
Once you start hunting for a quarterback, you keep trying until you have one. Every two years, you draft another until you find one. Then it’s a race to patch the gaps around him fast enough to create a title window before the quarterback needs his second contract.
Are the Broncos ready to take a bold step forward, swinging on a quarterback and starting the rookie contract clock?
Or is this Year Zero? A chance to lay the groundwork for 2025 and beyond.
Tonight, we’ll find out.
Here’s where the Broncos’ roster stands entering the 2024 NFL Draft…
QB: Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, Ben DiNucci
Wilson struggled for three years with the Jets after being the second-overall pick. He’s a reclamation project.
Stidham matched Russell Wilson’s performance in his first of two outings with the Broncos. His other didn’t go so well.
The odds of either quarterback becoming a long-time starter are slim, but never say never. A starting quarterback is the fastest way to upgrade the Broncos’ roster.
RB: Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, Jaleel McLaughlin, Tyler Badie
The Broncos’ running backs room looks solid enough, although Williams’ 3.6 yards per carry last year in his return from an ACL injury leaves some doubt.
The Broncos have space to carry four running backs on their roster, so there’s room for a rookie if Denver doesn’t quite trust it’s backfield.
FB: Michael Burton
Burton was one of the league’s better fullbacks last season. The Broncos won’t find an upgrade in the draft.
TE: Adam Trautman, Greg Dulcich, Nate Adkins, Lucas Krull
Denver ranked last in the NFL in tight end receiving yards last year. If Dulcich had been healthy, the story would have been different. But can the Broncos trust him to stay healthy this time around?
Adkins and Krull helped the Broncos last year, but neither is a lock to make the roster.
WR: Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, Marvin Mims Jr., Josh Reynolds, Lil’Jordan Humphrey, Brandon Johnson, Jalen Virgil, Phillip Dorsett, David Sills, Michael Bandy
The Broncos have plenty of options who deserve a role… whether they deserve as large of a role as they will be given is the big question.
T: Garett Bolles, Mike McGlinchey, Matt Peart, Quinn Bailey, Alex Palczewski, Trey Jacobs
A couple of unquestioned starters. A couple of projects. The Broncos don’t need a tackle, but it’s never a bad position to invest in.
G: Quinn Meinerz, Ben Powers, Calvin Throckmorton, Will Sherman
Like tackle, the guard situation is easy. Maybe a depth piece might make sense, especially if there’s any doubt about footing the bill for Meinerz after the season.
C: Sam Mustipher, Luke Wattenberg, Alex Forsyth
Mustipher has plenty of experience for a 27-year-old, but he’s on his third team in three years. Are either of the young guys ready for an opportunity? If not, the Broncos can grab a starter in either of the draft’s first two days.
DL: Zach Allen, DJ Jones, Malcolm Roach, Angelo Blackson, Matt Henningsen, Rashard Lawrence, Elijah Garcia, Jordan Jackson
The Broncos have room to add a lineman to their rotation, either as a starter or a bench player. Maybe both.
OLB: Jonathon Cooper, Baron Browning, Nik Bonitto, Drew Sanders, Ronnie Perkins, Thomas Incoom, Durell Nchami
Four roster spots are locked up. One or two more could be available, depending on how many the Broncos are willing to keep.
Cooper and Browning will be free agents after the season, which means at least one rotation spot will be up for grabs. Will the Broncos plan ahead and plug it now? Or will they wait to decide after the season? They certainly don’t need another body for the rotation.
LB: Alex Singleton, Cody Barton, Jonas Griffith, Justin Strnad
The Broncos could probably find a second starter with their third-round pick. But are they happy with what they have? If not, moving Drew Sanders back inside is always an option.
CB: Pat Surtain II, Ja’Quan McMillian, Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis, Levi Wallace, Tremon Smith, Art Green, Reese Taylor, Keidron Smith
CB1 and the nickel job are locked up. Will Riley Moss, Damarri Mathis or Levi Wallace take the other starting job? Could an underdog win it? Will the Broncos snag their starter in the first round? Will they add bodies to the competition on Day 2 or Day 3?
S: Brandon Jones, PJ Locke, Caden Sterns, Delarrin Turner-Yell, JL Skinner, Devon Key, Tanner McCalister
The top three figure to compete for the two starting jobs. Jones is a heavy, heavy favorite. Locke is a favorite, too. I like the Broncos’ safety group, but you could justify drafting another.
K: Wil Lutz
P: Riley Dixon
LS: Mitchell Fraboni
Bring in some competition if you want, but special teams isn’t a major need.
