We’re 48 hours from NFL football.
I’ve got two things for you this week:
1… I ran through my power rankings for the league. I know that makes this one of hundreds of power rankings floating around the internet, but: mine are right.
2… I have a lot of bets I’m really proud of.
There are futures bets, prop bets, and how I’m taking advantage of a promo. I spent too much time this week looking at DraftKings and I don’t want to be the only one to profit.
Let’s Ride.
Tier 1
The top group is filled with the true, proven contenders. Take any of them to win the Super Bowl and I can’t argue with you. If there’s a question mark, then there’s a veteran quarterback who can probably erase it.
1 – Bills
No hot takes here. The Bills averaged more than 40 points in the playoffs and 30 in a four-game winning streak to end the regular season. I don’t think they’re an insurmountable No. 1 but they have top-notch talent with no clear question marks.
2 – Rams
The defending Super Bowl champions bet on star talent over depth last season but lost some of their stars this offseason. They added Bobby Wagner but their depth didn’t improve. We aren’t factoring in their impossibly-tough schedule here.
3 – Packers
Davante Adams and Za’Darius Smith are gone. Rashan Gary will replace Smith easily but Adams will be much tougher to replace. Still, the defense is one of the five best in the NFL and the offense can’t be bad with Aaron Rodgers at the helm.
4- Chiefs
Kansas City lost more than the Packers and doesn’t have the defense or running game to make up for it. Patrick Mahomes will find a way to win but the Chiefs won’t have the same super-offense of the past half-decade.
5 – Buccaneers
The Tampa Bay offensive line has been decimated by injuries and that’s bad news for their 45-year-old quarterback. With Gronk out of the picture, the running game will be average at the absolute best and the Bucs will be down their top receiving threat from the second half of last season. Tom Brady will find a way, but it won’t be easy.
Tier 2
These are teams with clear paths to be contenders, but with some big question marks. Some haven’t proven themselves yet. Others have new faces to fit in.
6 – Chargers
The Chargers have underperformed for 20 years but it’s hard to look at this roster and see anything but a contender. Still, Justin Herbert and the crew need to prove they’re as good as they look.
7 – Bengals
Cincinnati is tough to place. The Bengals are coming off a Super Bowl appearance but it was far from a dominant run. The front seven lacks top-tier juice and the secondary is average. If Joe Burrow is a truly elite quarterback, none of that will matter with the talent around him on offense. We need to see just a little more before Cincinnati makes the top tier.
8 – 49ers
Like the Bengals, San Francisco has every right to be upset about its placement. The 49ers held a lead in the NFC Championship Game with two minutes to play. They may have the best defense in the league, their running game is always among the league’s best (though I have questions about their interior line) and they have three of the most versatile offensive weapons in the league. But is Trey Lance ready for a playoff run? To me he’s still a year away. Having Jimmy Garoppolo is easily the best Plan B in the league. (He just led a team to the NFCCG for Pete’s sake.) Still, you need better quarterback play to move up this list.
9 – Broncos
Denver’s defense will be among the league’s best, after giving up the third-fewest points in the league last season. The running game should be above average at worst, in a new scheme. Russell Wilson can carry any passing attack into the top half of the league and the Broncos should have their sights set much higher than that. How much time will it take to mesh, though? And how much talent did the Broncos have hidden behind poor coaching and poor quarterback play? There should be enough talent to make a deep playoff run possible, but I understand the questions.
10 – Ravens
Nobody was hurt more by injuries than Baltimore in 2021. The defense is solid but at some point the Ravens will need to invest in the passing game. Maybe they’ll get lucky and the young receivers will pop.
Tier 3
Maybe a world in which these teams make deep playoff runs exists. Maybe the flaws are too deep. These teams should be playoff contenders at the very least.
11 – Raiders
Any team could win the AFC West but the Raiders are least likely. They’ll have one of the best passing attacks in the sport but the defense leaves plenty to be desired. Derek Carr had better be ready to score 40.
12 – Cardinals
Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury are one of the most fun quarterback-coach duos in the NFL. The success has only lasted until the midpoint of the season though. The pieces are there to be successful but it’s time to take the jump.
13 – Colts
Can a 37-year-old Matt Ryan make a playoff push with sub-par receivers? I think so. Having a great offensive line and running back won’t hurt. Neither will adding Stephon Gilmore to one of the league’s top defenses.
14 – Vikings
Kirk Cousins isn’t a Super Bowl threat but he can get the job done in the regular season. The skill position players around him make that easy. The defense has a few (mostly-aging) studs, but there are too many holes to bet anything but the over.
15 – Saints
The New Orleans roster is loaded with studs on both sides of the ball. Jameis Winston will control their destiny. It’s worth noting that they’ve never lost to the Tom Brady-led Bucs.
Tier 4
It’s playoff time for these teams. If not, it’s probably time to make a change.
16 – Dolphins
The offensive line is patchwork. The running backs leave plenty to be desired. And Tu’a Tagovailoa hasn’t proven he’s a starting NFL quarterback. But Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill could be the best wide receiver duo in the league by the end of the season, and they’re already the fastest. Throw in a surprisingly stout defensive lineup and anything is possible for the Fins.
17 – Cowboys
Can Ezekiel Elliott get back to his 2019 form behind the worst line of his career? Can Dak Prescott find success with that same line and without Amari Cooper? I’m skeptical. The defense needs to step forward behind its young stars. Weak divisional opponents will make Dallas look better than it is.
18 – Eagles
The hype around the Philadelphia roster is a little rich for my taste, but it’s fair to say there are very few holes. It’s also safe to say that Jalen Hurts has all the tools he could ask for and the team will go as far as he takes it.
Tier 5
Shoot for the playoffs. Don’t be too disappointed if you don’t make it.
19 – Patriots
Mac Jones is Tom Brady lite. The problem is that the rest of the rosters is the Patriots lite. And so is the coaching staff. There just isn’t enough here to be successful, but Bill Belchick will find a way to guide this team to .500.
20 – Steelers
Mitch Trubisky made the playoffs in two of his four seasons as a starter in Chicago. Bet you didn’t expect that. There’s a solid roster here, but there’s still not enough juice to be a real threat. At least unless Kenny Pickett steps in and stars.
21 – Titans
Can Derrick Henry be himself after a foot injury? It’s very possible. But last year feels like an anomaly for the reigning No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Tier 6
22 – Panthers
Outside of Christian McCaffrey, Baker Mayfield has almost no help. The defense has some fun young talent but right or nine wins would be a good season.
23 – Falcons
Marcus Mariota is better than people think but he isn’t good. Desmond Ridder might provide a spark at some point. The Falcons have a couple of fun young pass catcher in Drake London and Kyle Pitts but there aren’t many bright spots across the roster.
24 – Browns
Deshaun Watson’s Week 13 return will provide a spark but Cleveland will need to be nearly perfect after he returns to make a run to the playoffs. Jacoby Brissett can feed the best running back duo in the NFL and Denzel Ward and Myles Garrett are premiere defenders but Cleveland doesn’t have the juice to survive Watson’s suspension.
25 – Lions
Hard Knocks has fans convinced Detroit can be Cinderella. The odds are slim, though. Holes exist in the defense. Jared Goff can’t win games by himself. Playoffs are too lofty of a goal for this season. Shoot for .500.
26 – Jaguars
Jacksonville may have as much upside as anybody in this tier but winning less than four games per season over the past four years makes it tough to see things working out. Trevor Lawrence is the X-factor though, and he’s got a decent set of weapons around him.
27 – Commanders
Can Carson Wentz save Washington? Nope. The defense is stout up front, though, and the running game could be solid.
Tier 7
28 – Texans
Davis Mills isn’t getting a fair shake. He’s a second-year quarterback coming off a hot finish to his rookie season. It’s hard to see things going well, though. His defense is lacking talent and outside of Brandin Cooks, he doesn’t have much for weapons. Maybe a revamped offensive line could help.
29 – Giants
This is the final year of the Daniel Jones experiment, in my opinion. His only hope is that 25-year-old Saquon Barkley can turn back the clock behind an offensive line that could take a step forward. The defense only has a few proven players.
30 – Seahawks
No Russell Wilson? Big problem. The best-case scenario for Seattle is a season reminiscent of the last six versions of the Broncos. The worst-case scenario is the top pick in the draft… which might not be so bad, actually.
31 – Bears
Chicago is lacking talent at every offensive position except quarterback. And Justin Fields hasn’t done anything to prove he’s ready to be a franchise cornerstone. Roquan Smith decided to stay, Jaylon Johnson is a solid scheme fit at cornerback and the additions of Robert Quinn and rookie safety Jaquan Brisker give the defense just the faintest glimmer of hope.
32 – Jets
Some turnover on the offensive line could give rookie running back Breece Hall a fighting chance, but I doubt it. Zach Wilson is in a tough spot. Quinnen Williams is a good piece in the defensive trenches but their next two best defenders should be their first-round rookies by the end of the season.
Locks
Week 1 Props
Bills @ Rams – Both teams to score in the 4th quarter (-260)
The juice here is bad, but the bet is a lock. This game is going to be a shootout, and that will continue into the final frame. Don’t take this bet solo, but put it in a parlay or two. Combine it with a standard -110 bet and you’ll get +164 juice. Not bad at all.
Raiders @ Chargers – First offensive play of the game: pass (+150)
Want juice? Here it is. Both of these teams are pass-happy because the air is where they are most efficient. They know that. I wish we could bet on the first play being a pass out of five-wide.
Raiders @ Chargers – Over 1.5 fourth-down conversions (+115)
We’re sticking with the same game (the one most Broncos fans will be watching). The Chargers attempt fourth-down conversions more than any other team in the league. We don’t know about Josh McDaniels but I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s willing to do the same. In a high-scoring game like this one, I think more fourth-down attempts will be likely.
Browns @ Panthers – Panthers -1 in the second half (+100)
Baker Mayfield will get his revenge in Week 1. Don’t be surprised if he gets off to a slow start, though. That’s why were taking the Panthers to win when it matters, in the second half.
49ers @ Bears – Cole Kmet longest reception: under 17.5 yards (-125)
This bet would have hit 26 times in Cole Kmet’s 33-game career. Sure, six of those came last season. But against a stingy 49er defense, I don’t think the third-year tight end will be making explosive plays.
Week 1 Picks
This is a fun week on DraftKings Sportsbook (where I pulled all of these lines from). In every game, your bet will hit if the team you bet on takes a 10-point lead. Make sure you opt in. And make sure you’re taking the moneyline.
Last season, a team took a 10-point lead and lost in 35 games. The total was 43 the year before. If those numbers continue, it’ll happen in 13-16% of games in 2022. That’s a decent chunk.
Because of that promo, we’re going all moneylines here.
Packers @ Vikings – Vikings +100
It’s tough to pick Minnesota over Green Bay but I think it’s a good bet. The Packers need to adapt to life after Davante Adams. The Vikings have a very solid roster and the home-field advantage. Plus, the Vikings blew four leads in the fourth-quarter last year, tied for the most in the NFL. They fit this strategy well.
Chiefs @ Cardinals – Cardinals +200
Like the Packers, the Chiefs may take a couple of games to settle in. Meanwhile, Arizona has been one of the best September teams in the league. I’m all in, especially with the DK special giving a little insurance to Mahomes magic.
Bills @ Rams – Bills -130
This is the best show of the week and I’m giving Buffalo the edge. This will be another high-scoring contest, which means big swings (and big leads) are in the cards. The best part: you only need your moneyline pick to go up by seven points for this bet to hit. (Again, remember to opt in.)
Broncos @ Seahawks – Broncos -265
This one is a lock. Bad juice. You can’t parlay it and take the special but it might be worth it to make the parlays anyway.
Futures
Trevor Lawrence under 14.5 interceptions (-115)
We love betting player unders. Fans like betting on players to have big years, which inflates the totals. Plus, an injury (which hopefully doesn’t happen) helps out, too.
Lawrence 17 interceptions as a rookie, but seven of those came in the first three weeks of the season. And all but three of his interceptions came in five stinky games. With a better situation around him, plus the natural growth for a young player, knocking off three interceptions seems likely.
Treylon Burks under 725.5 receiving yards (-115)
The rookie wide receiver has picked up some hype this week, but he struggled in camp and in the preseason, where he caught four balls for 37 yards in 83 offensive snaps. About half of all rookie first-round wide receivers have hit this mark in the past three years, but most had better situations than Burks.
Zach Ertz under 625.5 (+100)
The veteran tight end ran up 763 yards last season, but I wonder if his best ball is behind him. He missed seven games in 2020 but even if he was healthy, Ertz was more than 100 yards off the pace to hit this mark in the games he played. Throw in highly-drafted rookie Trey McBride and I feel good about this under.
Courtland Sutton over 5.5 receiving touchdowns (-130)
I don’t like overs but this one feels like a lock. Sure, Sutton only had two touchdowns last year but I’m not concerned. Six touchdowns should be a lock.
Chiefs to make the playoffs (-210)
It isn’t juicy but it will hit.
Giants under 7 wins (-110)
The Giants need eight wins to take my money? Sign me up.
Bears under 6 wins (-120)
It’s tough to imagine Chicago winning seven games, which is what it would take to lose this bet. Five or fewer doesn’t leave much room for margin but this roster is so bad.
