Before the season, I placed a small bet on the Broncos to win their first five games. I didn’t make the bet because I thought it would happen; I made the bet because I would’ve hit a serious jackpot if it happened.
Winning the first five seemed plausible.
The Seahawks had their souls sucked out of them.
The Texans were the Texans.
The 49ers started a massive question mark at quarterback.
The Raiders were one-dimensional.
The Colts looked like the toughest test.
Now I feel dumb.
But now the Broncos are 2-3 with three of their four worst opponents behind them, at least based on what we’ve seen so far. It isn’t ideal.
Even more concerning is that nearly half of the Broncos’ starters are injured and a good chunk of those guys won’t see the field again until 2023.
Today we’re resetting the goals for 2022.
And we’re also bringing one of those injured guys back for Monday Night Football.
Let’s Ride.
Resetting the Standards
Bad things are happening to the Broncos. Instead of clinging to the preseason hopes, I’ve got some new, much more reasonable goals for this season.
Win 9 Games
The days of competing for the AFC West title aren’t gone yet, but the odds seem firm against the Broncos. If they can find a way to salvage a winning record, that will be a feat worth celebrating.
And it might just get the Broncos into the playoffs.
Score 20 Points Per Game
Setting a 20-point standard is disappointing, but I think that’s where the bar should be placed. In order to hit this mark, the Broncos would need to put up a little more than 22 points per game over the course of the next dozen games. That’s the league average for scoring at this point in the season.
13.5 Sacks From Chubb
The Broncos’ stud pass rusher has 5.5 sacks through five games. That’s an awesome pace, but it’s also probably unsustainable. If Bradley Chubb can post eight more sacks in the next 12 games, this will be a great season. And that probably means he stayed healthy.
2 More 300-Yard Passing Games
This one feels incredibly reasonable. Russell Wilson already has one 300-yard game under his belt (he threw for 340 yards against Seattle). If he can add two more, this won’t be a spectacular season, but it would be a solid rebound from a rough start. He threw for 300 yards 21 times over 10 seasons in Seattle, so three 300-yard games would be better than his 2.1 per season to this point in his career.
Remain a Top-5 Defense
If nine wins aren’t the loftiest goal on this list, then holding onto their status as a top-five defense in both points and yards allowed is. I still think this is a reasonable standard, though.
900 Yards For Jerry
Does anybody believe Jerry Jeudy has come anywhere close to his ceiling this season? I doubt it. But he’s still on pace for 800 yards. If he can jump from 47 yards per game to 55 yards per game the rest of the way, he’ll get that number up to 900. That isn’t what we wanted to see before the season, but it’s a solid number.
3 Pro Bowlers
For a struggling team coming off a zero-Pro-Bowler season, three Pro Bowlers would be a major step. The easy options are Bradley Chubb, Pat Surtain and Justin Simmons. But Courtland Sutton has himself in decent shape and Randy Gregory could make a run if he keeps up his pre-injury pace when he gets back from the injured reserve list. D.J. Jones will probably be overlooked without massive numbers. Montrell Washington has a real chance to take a return job.
Take Your Pick
The Broncos are ravaged by injuries. Five offensive starters and four defensive starters are injured. A couple more are banged up.
Ahead of the Chargers game, I imagined what would happen in an alternate universe where the Broncos could wipe away one player’s injuries for Monday Night Football against the Chargers.
This is my list of options, from worst to best:
11 – Greg Dulcich
Expecting a rookie tight end to contribute is a bad bet. Expecting a third-round rookie tight end to contribute is an even worse bet. Expecting a rookie third-round tight end who missed the entire offseason to contribute is a terrible bet.
But the Broncos’ have gotten next to nothing from their tight ends and Dulcich could provide a spark. The odds are slim, but they’re better than nothing.
10 – Billy Turner
To say Billy Turner has had a slow start in his second stint with the Broncos would be an understatement. He’s hardly seen the field at all. His availability last week is a good sign, but until he’s on the field, it’s tough to imagine a world in which he contributes.
But in a world in which Turner’s injuries disappear on Monday Night Football, he’d be a nice addition to an offensive line that has left plenty to be desired. Calvin Anderson and Cam Fleming are the projected starting tackles, and Turner’s 68 career starts feel like a safe bet. His ability to play guard opens some other doors, as well.
9 – Josey Jewell
With Jonas Griffith and Alex Singleton available to hold down the middle of the field, Jewell’s absence can be patched. But as the best of the bunch, it would be great to see Jewell on the field.
A couple of other factors keep the veteran this far down the list. One is that the Broncos are playing a pass-heavy team and his tackling ability will not be as useful.
8 – Garett Bolles
Garett Bolles struggled in the early going of the season, but there was plenty of hope for improvement. On a down-to-down basis, he was good. But a missed block here or there and a few penalties made him a frequent contributor to a mistake-riddled offense. Still, Bolles is the highest-paid player on the Broncos’ offensive line, and he’s only two years removed from an All-Pro season.
Would Bolles have turned his season around? Maybe. I’ll take him as a clear upgrade over his replacement, though.
7 – Quinn Meinerz
As noted above, the Broncos’ offensive line has been far from a bright spot this season. Just how much it has struggled is up for debate, but there’s no debating that the Broncos are looking for better.
Enter Quinn Meinerz. The second-year guard is one of the team’s most promising young players, and he could be the shot in the arm the team needs. That’s what happened in the preseason when he played one series in the game against the Bills before exiting the game. The offense went from decent to abysmal in his absence. It’s a shame that all we can talk about is preseason football for Meinerz.
Meinerz gets the edge over Bolles because of the tackle’s recent performance.
6 – Randy Gregory
Baron Browning was spectacular in his first game, taking over Randy Gregory’s role on the defense. You could make the case that he can minimize the loss of Gregory. I’m not so sure.
Browning was at his best when he was running games with Bradley Chubb. Browning would line up just outside Chubb, and every time they twisted, somebody got to the quarterback. It was like a cheat code.
Imagine Randy Gregory on the other side of Browning and Chubb.
5 – Ronald Darby
I don’t want to keep putting defensive players on this list, but it should come as no surprise that the most talented players are on that side of the ball.
The duo of Darby and Pat Surtain was everything the Broncos could have hoped in the first five weeks of the season. They were able to keep all but one quarterback under 200 passing yards and the one who got over was Jimmy Garoppolo, with 211. Losing Darby means more of Damarri Mathis and Michael Ojemudia. That’s a big step backward.
4 – Javonte Williams
The offense needs juice. Juice is what Javonte Williams is all about.
Even before Javonte Williams’ injury the offense was struggling, but adding Williams back into the mix certainly wouldn’t hurt. Williams is capable of carrying an offense on his back on a good night, and that sort of potential is exactly what is missing.
Williams would be higher on this list, but the Broncos still have a couple of decent options in the backfield. Melvin Gordon has a fumbling problem, but if he holds onto the ball he’s a good back. Mike Boone is solid, though he didn’t participate in Tuesday’s practice. Latavius Murray is a good veteran back.
3 – Justin Simmons
Should offensive improvements be prioritized over defensive improvements? Of course. But Justin Simmons is one of the three best players on the Broncos’ roster, and that talent wins out over a focus on cleaning up the Broncos’ weaknesses.
Plus, the Broncos are going to take on a passing attack led by Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams this week. An All-Pro safety will certainly help their odds.
As of now, Simmons appears to be on track to return to play this week. He was designated to return from the team’s injured reserve list, which allows him to practice with the team and stipulates that he must be activated in the next 21 days. He practiced on Tuesday, which is a great sign for Monday.
2 – Russell Wilson
The Broncos’ big-money quarterback will play on Monday, despite the partial tear in his lat on his throwing side. Still, upgrading Wilson to full health would be more valuable than adding anybody on this list so far.
Just how much Wilson will be affected by his injury is anybody’s guess. He flew to Los Angeles over the weekend to get a PRP shot, which figures to help out somewhat. The Cowboys’ Dak Prescott had to take a month off from throwing to let a similar injury heal.
Choosing Wilson to recover from injury might be a waste if the recent dip in his performance wasn’t injury-relate, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. Quarterback is the most important position on the field, so any upgrade is worth it.
1 – Tim Patrick
The Broncos desperately need a spark on offense. More specifically, they need a spark in the passing game.
A healthy Patrick would step into the offense as the No. 2 wide receiver at worst. His size, smarts, and hands would make him an easy target for Russell Wilson. It’s possible he could solve the Broncos’ biggest problem all by himself.
Wilson was a close second on this list, but he needs another target more than he needs his arm back at full strength.
