Preseason is almost over and, to be honest, I’m over it.
The preseason gets too much hate. No, it isn’t equivalent to Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes duking it out on Sunday Night Football, but that’s not the point. Six months of offseason drama is concluded. Holdouts. Position battles. New uniforms.
Thousands of fans can afford to sit in an NFL stadium for the only time all year.
But three weeks is enough. Maybe even two would be alright. We definitely don’t need four.
The reason? It gets stale.
And this was a stale week in the NFL.
Kyler Murray called plays again but everything went fine.
Roquan Smith bailed on his hold-in and decided it was time to practice with the Bears and play out his contract.
When Hollywood Brown was caught speeding, it wasn’t for going 126 in a 65 like it was a few weeks ago. It was for going 71 in a 50. Which is a good thing, I guess.
It was a weak week.
(Although, Kavontae Turpin did all he could to provide some pop.)
Only two more weeks before is back for real.
Let’s Ride.
Second stint for Jano?
Broncos legend Andy Janovich is a free agent.
Just five months after giving the fullback 1-year, $2.5 million contract, the Houston Texans cut Janovich this week. The Texans guaranteed $700,000 of the deal.
So, should the Broncos consider a reunion?
Let’s start here: I don’t trust the Texans. I don’t care if they decided there isn’t room for Janovich on the roster. That doesn’t mean anything about him as a player. They don’t know what they’re doing.
Here’s why I’m tempted: I’m still a little concerned about the Broncos’ running game. Even a Raider fan would say the Broncos have a top-eight backfield with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. They’ll be good if not great. But the line still has question marks. Calvin Anderson has not performed like a starter and Billy Turner still hasn’t strung together back-to-back practice appearances. Dalton Risner needs a bounceback season. Lloyd Cushenberry needs to take a step. Garett Bolles will be good but whether he’ll take the final step into the top five is still up in the air. I’m all in on Quinn Meinerz, though.
The Broncos could wind up with a really good line. But there’s a chance that it’s in the bottom 10 of the league. That would be a waste, given the Broncos’ backfield.
Bringing in Andy Janovich wouldn’t solve all of those problems. But he might be able to cover up one of them when he’s on the field. And there may be only one problem to start with.
Andrew Beck isn’t bad at playing fullback, but I think Janovich is an upgrade.
Here’s a play from last week that may have gone differently with Janovich:
I’d be tempted to go after Jano if I was in charge. I wouldn’t break the bank but fullbacks come cheap anyway. Why not give him a run? The more girth the better.
How long will the Chargers last?
The Los Angeles Chargers are in first-contract quarterback heaven.
The best possible asset for an NFL team is to have a good, cost-controlled quarterback. Typically that’s a Pro Bowl-caliber passer who is on a rookie contract. You pay him a tenth of his market value and invest the savings elsewhere.
For example, Justin Herbert is making $6.6 million per year on his rookie contract, instead of the $50 million he’d earn on the open market. That’s why the Chargers were able to break the bank on a 4-year, $76.4 million extension for safety Derwin James this week.
The problem for the Chargers is that they’ve opened been opening up the checkbook for awhile now and eventually the bill is going to come do. So, how long before the Chargers will run out of money? Let’s take a look.
2022
Right now, the Chargers are fine. They’ve got about $13 million left in cap space, which is a pretty standard amount and that will roll over to next year.
2023
This is where all hell starts to break loose. As of right now, the Chargers are about $27 million over the salary cap. They’re going to be at least slightly screwed.
This is a good time to point out that the cap can be manipulated and the bill can always be pushed back by adding void years at the end of contracts, etc. And if you keep pushing that bill back you never end up having to pay it, at least in theory. Still, there’s a limit to what you can do. And the Chargers are past that limit.
So how can the Chargers come close to balancing the books?
They can cut pass rusher Kahlil Mack to save $18 million.
They can cut receiver Keenan Allen and save $15 million.
They can cut center Corey Linsley and save $6 million.
They can cut running back Austin Ekeler and save a little less than $6 million.
Odds are they’ll have to clear about half of the $27 million and they can push back the other half. Then you have to factor in another $10 million or a little less for rookies.
It’s doable. They’ll probably lose one of their good players. The bigger piece of the equation might be that they can’t add anybody. They’re lucky they don’t have any major free agents.
2024
The Chargers will have $10 million of cap space heading into the 2024 offseason, assuming nothing changes.
But the Chargers will also have to exercise Herbert’s fifth-year option, which should cost around $25 to $30 million. That leaves a girthy deficit.
They can cut the players listed above with even larger savings.
Or they can cut Joey Bosa to save $22 million.
Or Mike Williams to save $20 million.
Or Sebastian Joseph-Day to save $7.5 million.
By now, they’ve probably cut or traded at least two of the players I’ve mentioned so far. The rest of the cap space probably came from restructures, or void years, or other manipulations.
2025
This is where the Chargers have to give Justin Herbert massive money, probably at least $55 million per year. The AFC West will be out of the Chargers’ superteam era.
The takeaway from all of this is that the Chargers probably have two years where they can stock up on a bunch of elite talent and maybe one more if they really play their cards right. I wouldn’t bet on that third year though, since owner Dean Spanos is in the bottom 10 of NFL owners by net worth and he hasn’t been a big spender in the past. But who knows.
By 2025, though, the Chargers will be cutting corners like Kansas City.
And even if everything breaks the Chargers’ way, they’re still the Chargers. Something will go wrong. (Like their scoreboard not working for the first half of a game.)
Camp Battles
There are a couple of pieces of news worth knowing this week. We’re gonna knock those out quickly.
Billy isn’t inked in
Nathaniel Hackett was asked on Monday whether Billy Turner will be the starting right tackle for Week 1. He said Turner needs to get healthy before they think about that.
Then he was asked if Turner would be the starter if he was healthy. And he said he didn’t know.
So there’s your update.
No mo’ Joe
When Joe Schobert joined the Broncos last week, he seemed like the easy patch at inside linebacker in case Jonas Griffith missed a game or two. On Tuesday, he was cut.
The move was a surprise but there were warnings signs. Not only did Schobert not play with the starting defense on Saturday (which is actually the backup defense) he didn’t play all that well either. I chalked it up to only having four days to knock off the rust before taking the field. The Broncos, apparently, did not.
I’d say there’s an 82% chance Alex Singleton is the starter if Jonas Griffith can’t go. Justin Strnad has the other 18%.
Bolton the backer
The Chiefs are weak at inside linebacker, but a starter seems to have emerged. Second-year, second-round pick Nick Bolton out of Missouri is taking all of the starting reps, even in one linebacker formations.
Drew’s not dead
While Drew Lock’s covid diagnosis kept him out of his preseason start, he still has a chance to win the job, thanks to Geno Smith only picking up one first down in his first three drives. Who knows what will happen in Seattle.
Baker beats out Darnold
The Panthers announced Monday morning that Baker Mayfield will be the starting quarterback this season. Sam Darnold is the backup. Matt Corral has a Lisfranc injury and will spend the season on injured reserve.
Raiders rotating RTs
Brandon Parker is hurt. Alex Leatherwood is disappointing. Jermaine Eluemunor has 14 starts in five seasons. Thayer Munford is a second-round rookie. One of them needs to start at right tackle for the Raiders. It’s bad news for the Raiders, who need some girth.
Pickett makes it a battle
Mitch Trubisky was a heavy, heavy favorite to start for the Pittsburgh Steelers. But first-round pick Kenny Pickett has given himself a real chance to take the job with a stellar preseason. Through two games, Pickett has completed 19 of 22 passes for 171 yards and three touchdowns. Only Sam Ehlinger has a higher passer rating across the league. Pickett also led a game-winning drive to fans chanting his name in Week 1. I don’t know how you leave him on the bench if he puts together a third good performance.
Palmer starts for the Chargers
The Chargers have two good receivers. There’s a handful of guys competing for the third spot. The hype is building around Josh Palmer, who had three catches for 75 yards and a touchdown this week. He’s fast. He fits perfectly with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.
Best Bets
1) The Broncos bounce back
Maybe this is a homer pick but taking Denver (-110) to beat the Vikings seems like a steal. Sure, the Broncos are coming off a stinker against the Bills but based on Nathaniel HAckett’s monday comments I think they really want to end the preseason on a high note. The Vikings haven’t won yet and only the Titans have scored fewer points this preseason. Working in a new backup quarterback, Nick Mullens, feels like a positive, although he’s more talented than what the Vikings previously had. The under might be a smarter call but I’m riding the Broncos and feeling good about it in Mile High.
2) The Ravens win again
By now you’ve heard of Baltimore’s 22-game preseason win streak. So have the books. The Ravens are -275 to win again, which is reasonable since they’ve probably taken a beating in the first two games. (I know I’ve made plenty off of them.) The odds probably aren’t good enough to take it as a straight bet unless you’re a big spender, but my strategy of parlaying a handful of other bets throughout the week with the Ravens moneyline has paid off. I’ll be combining the Ravens and Broncos to win at +160, plus a couple of others.
3) Bills keep the streak alive
Buffalo’s 11-game preseason win streak pales in comparison to Baltimore’s, but I’m willing to keep riding it. The Bills probably won’t play their starters against Carolina, so don’t expect another Star Wars showing, but with a starter inked in for the Panthers, I don’t expect to see much of the first-team Panther offense either. At +175, the Buffalo moneyline might be the best bet on the board.
4) Steelers win again
Most of the NFL will be resting starters in Week 3, but the Steelers have good reason not to. Kenny Pickett came into the preseason as a longshot to be the opening-day starter but he’s done everything possible to force Mike Tomlin’s hand. I think they’ll runn Pickett and Mitch Trubisky out there in one final battle for the starting job, which means their quarterback play will be much better than Detroit’s. Take the Steelers to finish the preseason 3-0 at -200. (And parlay that with the Ravens to win at +104.)
5) Packers-Chiefs under 36
Only a handful of teams have scored less than the Chiefs’ 38 points to this point in the preseason. The Packers’ 41 are right in the middle of the pack. Both teams’ defenses have given up fewer points than the offenses have scored. The total for this one is one of the lowest in the league this week, but for good reason. I think unders are going to be a better bet across the board this week after fluky high scoring early (including 14 of the first 17 overs hitting in the first week) comes back to earth and fewer starters play. This game feels like one of the most predictable, making it a good test case.
Tweet of the Week
Top Comments
Did you have a good weekend?
Cullin’ for Mullens
I had a great weekend. Watched the Broncos. Went to a barbecue. Can’t beat it.
Going to take a drink every time the word “girth” is used in one of these articles.
brig_a_tron
I took it easy on you this week. You’d better watch out next week, though.
Question of the Week
Was this a dirty block?
0 Comments (1 conversation)
Cullin' for Mullens
Hopefully I didn’t miss the cutoff time.
Late to comment?? I just call it the clutch factor