The Denver Broncos have a new quarterback and, if all goes well, he’ll be the face of the franchise for the next decade or more.
Denver selected Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, 24, on Thursday with the 12th pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. Nix was the sixth quarterback off the board, and the final piece of a historic run on quarterbacks. He is the second highest-drafted quarterback in Broncos history.
Nix grew up an Auburn fan, thanks to his father’s stint as the school’s starting quarterback. A five-star recruit, Nix had plenty of options, but his decision was easy. He followed in his father’s footsteps. He won the starting job as a true freshman.
But after three tumultuous seasons, it was time to move on. He had completed less than 60% of his passes.
In 2022, Nix joined the Oregon Ducks. In his first season, he was second in the nation with a 71.9% completion percentage.
In 2023, Nix took another leap forward. He completed 77.4% of his passes, a new NCAA record. He also led the country in total completions, passing yards per attempt, passing touchdowns and total touchdowns. He was second in passing yards and passer rating.
In two years, Nix tranformed from a bust to a Heisman finalist.
Nix was a complicated draft prospect. How do you grapple with the difference in performance between Auburn and Oregon? How do you grapple with his age? How do you grapple with the fact that he set an NCAA record for career starts?
Nix still has the traits that made him the top quarterback recruit in the country. He’s 6-foot-2 and 214 pounds. He has big hands, plenty of mobility and a very solid arm at worst by NFL standards.
But is there still room to grow, or is the third-oldest first-round rookie quarterback in league history maxed out?
I cut up some clips from four of Nix’s games from his senior season at Oregon:
- The Pac-12 Championship loss to Washington
- The win over Caleb Williams’ USC
- The rivalry win over Oregon State
- The win over Utah’s high-end defense
Let’s dig in…
The Oregon Offense
The biggest knock on Nix isn’t his fault.
Nix played in a unique offensive system at Oregon. Much of what he was asked to do for the Ducks might not translate to the NFL.
So what is the Oregon offense?
Oregon recruited better than any team in the Pac-12. They had better athletes than their competition in 90% of their games. Sometimes by a wide margin.
The Ducks took advantage of this by emphasizing getting the ball into their playmakers’ hands and letting them do the majority of the work.
That was wide receiver Troy Franklin. His name will be called sometime during Day 2 of the draft. Speedy running back Bucky Irving could also hear his name on Friday. He may have been the top receiving back in the country. The Ducks had plenty of other speedy options, too.
To make use of their speed advantage, Oregon ran a bunch of screens.
When they had a numbers advantage on one side of the field, they often took advantage with bubble screens, like this one…
The Ducks could also run a screen when defenders lined up too far off the ball…
Oregon created leverage with its speed, too.
In this clip, a receiver runs in motion across the formation, creating a footrace with a cornerback playing man coverage. He gains enough separation to turn upfield and pick up five yards.
The next clip is the same idea, but it’s the running back racing a linebacker in man coverage to the edge.
The Ducks also loved curls to receivers when cornerbacks lined up too far off the ball. It’s another way to get the ball into a playmaker’s hands quickly and let him work in space.
Oregon also runs traditional West Coast short passing concepts, like curl flat. The inside receiver runs a flat route. The outside receiver runs a curl. Either the flat gains leverage or the curl is sitting in space.
They ran counters off of this concept, like having the flat receiver cut back inside to take advantage of overpursuing defenders.
All of this is to say that the Oregon passing attack is built on quick game. Oftentimes the reads are pre-snap. If not, they’re usually pretty simple.
Nix posted spectacular numbers in his senior season, but his job wasn’t always difficult. More than 75% of his completions came less than 10 yards from the line of scrimmage. His average depth of target was the lowest of any of the first-round quarterbacks.
None of these plays above deserve praise on its own. They’re all simple. And there were dozens more in the games I watched.
But Nix deserves praise for his batting average on the quick, easy throws. Quarterbacks drafted earlier, notably Drake Maye, aren’t as consistently accurate as Nix. Of all the quarterbacks in the draft, Nix is the guy you want to run your quick game. He has a quick release. He plays with rhythm. He’s accurate. He’s consistent. The attention to detail is the key.
And if you’re playing for Nix and you don’t have that attention to detail—say, you sit down when you’re supposed to run to the flat—he’s going to hold you accountable.
Remind you of anybody?
Playing from the Pocket
The vast majority of what Bo Nix did at Oregon—and his biggest strength—is quick game. So we’re going to spend some more time on that.
Another simple concept: The #2 receiver runs a fade, which clears space for #3 to run an out. Nix peeks to the backsid then delivers the ball on-time and on-target.
Against Cover 3, Nix knows the cornerback is going to stick to the wide receiver running the boundary long enough to create a pocket for the tight end to curl into. Once again, the ball is where you need it, when you need it there.
This time, he finds a deeper pocket against Cover 3.
And an even deeper pocket against Cover 3.
He can fed his weapons when they have one-on-ones, too.
These might seem redundant. They might even be boring. But they’re what Nix is all about. Most of his completions are between the numbers. The vast majority are short. There are very few incompletions. He only threw three interceptions all season. He plays a responsible brand of football.
But there’s some spice to him, too…
The Special Stuff
Alright, it’s time for some fun. Watch Bo miss some fingertips.
You could call any of those throws dangerous if you wanted to. He was inches away from trouble on each of them. But he placed the ball perfectly. And he only threw three interceptions all season, so I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt.
This time, Nix progresses through his reads quickly and hits the dig on the back side of the play.
Nix is mobile, too. He can make throws off-balance and on the move.
His ability to extend plays and maintain accuracy when he’s off-balance shows up in the red zone.
Nix has his flaws. He misses some passes. And I feel obligated to throw a couple of misses in here to balance out some of the magic.
The Deep Ball
My biggest concern with Nix, and the reason I wasn’t as high on him as I was on some others, is that most of the big plays he’s involved in are created by the receiver after the catch.
I’m not in love with Nix’s deep ball. He doesn’t hit on it often enough. When he does hit on it, there’s usually an adjustment by the receiver.
Take this ball for example. Nix completes the pass, but if he led his receiver, it would have been a touchdown. Instead, the receiver slows down and doesn’t have a chance to score.
In the four games I watched, I saw two that wound up in double coverage.
This one was an overthrow…
Only one ball was on the money.
Nix didn’t stretch the field vertically the way some of the quarterbacks who were selected him did. He hardly tests the deep boundaries. He only completed 14 passes outside the numbers that were at least 20 yards downfield. A bunch of them were on comeback routes like this one.
The Oregon offense isn’t built for long passes, so maybe there’s more than meets the eye. Maybe the results on deep balls will improve if he gets in a rhythm throwing them. As it stands, that’s the weak part of his game.
We’ll end this section on a bright note, though. Here’s a beautiful hole shot that makes you wonder if Nix has more in the tank downfield.
The Run Game
While Nix certainly isn’t a run-first quarteback, he has more than enough speed to make an impact on the ground. He was actually labeled a dual-threat quarterback in the recruiting process.
I would expect a solid dose of read options and designed quarterback runs in Nix’s rookie year.
Bo Nix & Sean Payton
It’s easy to see why Sean Payton would enjoy working with Bo Nix. Watch some Michael Thomas highlights and you’ll see plenty of plays similar to what I showed you above.
Nix is precise underneath. He can hunt matchups and feed his playmakers. He’s capable in the intermediate areas of the field, but the further he gets from the line of scrimmage, the less production you expect out of him.
Sacks were, arguably, the Broncos’ biggest problem in 2023. Nix works on-time and that should reduce Denver’s sacks in 2024. That should keep the offense on track and leave the running game viable more often than it was last year.
The transition to the NFL might not be smooth, though. The speed of the game changes. The windows get smaller.
I have three major concerns regarding his transition.
First, NFL cornerbacks press wide receivers far more than they do in college. If a receiver doesn’t get a free release, the timing of quick routes can get wonky. The rhythm can be thrown off.
The second concern is related. Can Nix threaten defenses enough deep to make life easy underneath? Nix doesn’t need to turn into Ben Roethlisberger, but he’s going to need to take advantage when a wide receiver comes free deep. If not, cornerbacks can hunt interceptions underneath.
Finally, does Denver have the playmakers to win one-on-one matchups? Much of what Nix does (and Payton, too) is manufacture one-on-one matchups using scheme or leverage. It won’t be Nix’s fault if Denver’s weapons can’t win for him, but it would put him in difficult situations and that’s the last thing you want for a rookie quarterback.
Payton will build an offense around Nix. He knows how to highlight his strengths. I expect read options, RPOs and quick game. Nix is ready to operate simple concepts, and he should be sharp enough to buy time until he’s ready to carry a full offense on his shoulders in the enxt few years.
That’s the game for rookie quarterbacks: avoid failure long enough to develop into a complete quarterback. Nix should have no trouble buying that time, especially with Payton at his side.
