The Broncos are streaking!
Back-to-back wins have the Broncos in first place in the AFC West (well, they’re tied with the Chiefs).
Can the Broncos hold on?
Can the Chargers catch up?
Why is Justin Field so bad.
We’ve got plenty to talk about this week.
Let’s Ride.
For Better or Worse
The Broncos have been a pretty average team so far this season, but things change fast in the NFL. Here’s why they could get better… or worse.
Better
Russ steps up
The Broncos’ passing game has been a disappointment, to say the least. Russell Wilson threw for 340 yards in the season-opener but hasn’t come close to that mark in the two games since.
Maybe Russ is making mistakes. Maybe the play-calling has been poor. Maybe the team just needs more time to gel in a new system.
Regardless, it’s obvious that the passing attack is capable of much more.
Meinerz and Turner return
Graham Glasgow has been fine in his time as the Broncos’ right guard. The return of Quinn Meinerz figures to be a big upgrade, though. He could come back as early as this weekend.
Billy Turner still hasn’t made his season debut but that could be on the way as well. He’ll probably take Cam Fleming’s spot at right tackle. Fleming has been solid to above average as a run blocker but has struggled as a pass protector. Turner is an unknown, but there’s plenty of upside.
Justin Simmons will come back
The Broncos defense has been great, but it has the potential to get even better. Justin Simmons has missed the last two games but the defense hasn’t missed a beat. Can the leagues’ second-ranked scoring defense and third-ranked total defense climb even higher? It’s possible.
Worse
The defense slows down
On paper, the Broncos’ defense should be really good. Expecting to give up 12 points and 251 yards per game all season is unrealistic though.
The question is how far the defense falls and whether they can stick among the league’s top units. The margin for error has been slim in both of the Broncos’ wins and a few more points allowed per game will require more from the offense.
The penalties come back
The Broncos still lead the NFL in penalties but they improved last week against the 49ers; after being called for 25 penalties in the first two games, they were only called for five in Week 3. That’s a pretty respectable number.
But there’s a chance that Week 3 was the outlier, not Weeks 1 and 2. If the penalties come back, the Broncos could face more uphill battles than we expect. A few more penalties against San Francisco could easily have changed the outcome.
The injuries stack up
This isn’t unique to the Broncos. The biggest threat to every team’s season is injuries.
But the Broncos can’t afford injuries, especially to offensive skill positions. The tight ends aren’t pulling their weight and the receivers are already missing Tim Patrick.
While defensive injuries would’ve doom the Broncos, they could easily move Denver closer to league average on that side of the ball.
Around the AFC West
What is wrong with Davante Adams?
A three-week statline of 17 catches for 189 yards and three touchdowns isn’t bad… unless you’re the best receiver in the NFL.
When the Raiders added 29-year-old wide receiver Davante Adams in March, Las Vegas seemed poised to have one of the top passing attacks in the NFL. That isn’t what happened and a 1,000-yard pace from Adams is one of the biggest disappointments. He has less than 50 total yards over the past two weeks. His 1.48 yards per route run are his lowest since 2015. His 95 passer rating when targeted is also his lowest since 2015.
My thought is this: the Raiders are trying too hard to get Davante Adams going.
Josh McDaniels drew up a jet sweep to Adams on the first drive of this week’s game against the Titans. It lost four yards. It was the first rushing attempt of Adams’ career. And that’s because there’s no reason to hand him the ball when you can throw it to him whenever you want.
The Raiders are trying to manufacture opportunities for Adams instead of letting him get himself open. They’re running him out of bunch formations intended to pull the defense apart instead of letting him take advantage of the matchup in front of him. He doesn’t need that extra help.
Adams has spent a higher percentage of time in the slot this season than he has in any other season in his career. Give him his own side of the field to work with and he’ll find a way to get open. (My favorite stat is this: On one play this week, Adams lined up in the slot and stayed in pass protection instead of running a route. It was the second time in his career, which includes more than 5,000 snaps on passing plays, that he was asked to pass protect on passing play.)
The Raiders have other problems in the passing game, too. Hunter Renfrow missed last week with injury and he’s the only other viable receiver on their roster. (Another big week from Mack Hollins could get him onto this list.)
Darren Waller struggled, too. He had two balls bounce off his hands in the end zone against the Titans. One went for an interception in the fourth quarter that could have sealed the loss. He had another ball bounce off one hand up the sideline on a third down. There was no reason to attempt a one-handed catch.
I still think the Raiders will figure out their passing game—it’s the one strength of their team on paper—but not until McDaniels gets out of his own way. Let the matchup nightmares win their one-on-ones instead of trying to scheme them open. This is Waller, Adams and Renfrow, not the clown car the Pats have rolled out for the past half-decade.
The problem is that the Raiders are 0-3 and playoff hopes are slim at best.
The Chargers are officially Charger-ing
I picked the Chargers to win the AFC West.
What the hell was I thinking?
Something always goes wrong in Chargerland and this year is no different. Let me catch you up…
Big free agent addition and true lockdown cornerback JC Jackson underwent a minor ankle procedure before the season and missed the opener. He played in Week 2, but sat out Week 3 because of soreness. Something isn’t going right and there’s no telling what the rest of his season will hold.
Star quarterback Justin Herbert fractured some rib cartilege on a hit in Week 2. He opted to take a painkilling shot before his Week 3 game. The same team doctor who punctured former-Chargers quarterback Tyrod Taylor’s lung with a painkilling injection two years ago brought in a specialist this time to watch the procedure through an ultrasound to make sure the lightning didn’t strike twice. Herbert made some good throws but didn’t look like himself.
Star second-year tackle was playing like one of the best in the league before he tore his bicep this week. He’s done for the year.
All-Pro center Cory Linsley missed last week with a knee injury. His status is up in the air this week.
Star pass rusher Joey Bosa tweaked his groin this week and is now considered week-to-week.
Star receiver Keenan Allen hasn’t played since Week 1 with a hamstring injury. His status is up in the air for this week.
Jalen Guyton was one of the receivers filling Allen’s place. He had 64 yards this week before tearing his ACL.
Oof.
The Chargers have been in the top 10 in games lost to injuries in seven of the last nine seasons. They’ve finished in the top 3 in three of those seasons.
How does this keep happening to the Chargers?
For a team that built its roster around top-end talent and sacrificed depth in the process, injuries are a quick way to doom a season. The upcoming schedule is easier than what they’ve faced to this point but a 1-2 start has the Chargers’ backs up against a wall.
If the Chargers lose either of their next two games, both of which are on the road against the Texans and the Browns, the Broncos will have a chance to send LA to 2-4 in Week 6. What an opportunity that would be.
Can the Broncos keep up with the Chiefs?
The Broncos are tied atop the AFC West with the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s still early. The Chargers are more than capable of making up the one-game gap. But it’s a good place for the Broncos to be… at least for right now.
So, can the Broncos hang with the Chiefss?
Look at this upcoming stretch for Kansas City…
@ Tampa
vs. the Raiders
vs. Buffalo
@ San Francisco
vs. the Titans
vs. the Jags
@ the Chargers
vs. the Rams
@ Cincinnati
@ Denver
Sure, they’ll be favored to win most of those games. But Jacksonville looks like one of the 10 best teams in the league. The Chiefs just lost to a Colts team that plays a lot like the Titans. The Raiders will be desperate. And those are the worst opponents on that schedule.
ESPN’s FPI projects the Chiefs will win 5.3 more games and lose 3.7 between now and the Sunday Night Football date with Denver. If the Broncos can stay within one win of Kansas City, they’ll have a chacne to tie things up and take the first leg of the tiebreaker when the two teams meet for the first time. That’s a solid goal for the next two months and I don’t think it’s unreasonable.
Winners & Losers
Winners
Jalen Hurts – Thought the second-year quarterback was ready to slow down? Think again. Hurts was electric again this week, setting a new season high with 340 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in a 24-8 win over the Commanders.
DeVonta Smith – Hurts’ primary target was second-year receiver DeVonta Smith. He led the NFL with 169 yards on eight catches as Eagles became one of two teams in the NFL without a loss.
Marquise Brown – The Cardinals’ couldn’t pull out a win over the Rams but the connection between Kyler Murray and Brown continued to grow in Week 3. Brown led the NFL with 14 catches and picked up 140 yards.
DeMarcus Lawrence – Three sacks in one game? That’s enough to be a winner. The Cowboys needed Lawrence to beat the Giants and stay firmly in the NFC East race.
Khalil Herbert – When David Montgomery went down, Khalil Herbert stepped up. The seocnd-year back led the NFL with 157 rushing yards on nearly eight yards per carry in the Bears’ win over the Texans.
Pat Surtain II – The second-year cornerback was targeted six times and didn’t allow a catch. He’s the first player to achieve that feat this season.
Jevon Holland – The second-year safety beat up on the Bills in just about every way possible on Sunday. He made eight tackles, deflected two passes, recorded 1.5 sacks and forced a fumble.
The Jaguars – Jacksonville is a blown fourth-quarter lead away from a 3-0 start. The win over the Chargers on Sunday proved that the Jags are playoff contenders in the AFC. Maybe Justin Herbert’s rib injury was the reason, but Trevor Lawrence was the best quarterback on the field.
The Packers – Beating the Bucaneers is always nice, but avoiding a 1-2 start in the process is even better.
Losers
Carson Wentz – The former Eagle was unable to get revenge on his former team. His magical start to the year came to an abrupt end.
Joe Flacco – Like Wentz, Flacco fell back to Earth in Week 3. He posted his first sub-300-yard game and threw a pair of picks. Zach Wilson can’t come back soon enough.
Mac Jones – The second-year quarterback had his opportunities but he wasn’t able to take advantage. Three second-half interceptions doomed the Patriots against the Ravens. A high ankle sprain could keep Jones off the field this week.
Justin Fields – 297 passing yards in three games? Two games under a 50% completion rate? Twice as many interceptions as touchdowns? A win over the Texans doesn’t cover up how poorly Justin Fields is playing.
Justin Jefferson – The Vikings pulled off a massive comeback over the Lions but Justin Jefferson did not contribute. He caught 3 balls for 14 yards. That’s back-to-back weeks he hasn’t helped out.
Josh McDaniels – An extended meeting with ownership after three games on the job is never a good sign. Josh McDaniels’ Raiders are all but out of the hunt for the AFC West.
The Bills – Buffalo out-gained Miami 382 yards to 171 in the air and 115 yards to 41 on the ground. They ran 90 plays compared to the Dolphins’ 39. The Bills are fine, but they blew an opportunity this week. And they’re now 0-6 in one-score games in the past two seasons.
The Texans – Any hope that Houston will rebound this season is nearly gone. If you can’t beat Chicago then who can you beat?
Post of the Week
Russell Wilson did an ad with Subway. It’s very uncomfortable. And the number of bites out of the sandwich keeps changing.
