Broncos Path to No. 1: The best-case scenario for Denver’s draft pick in Week 8

The Broncos are back in the win column!

While their 19-17 victory over the Packers is great for morale, it’s terrible for their chances at the top pick in April’s draft. You can debate amongst yourselves which is more important.

Thanks to results around the league, the Broncos only fell one spot in the draft standings, from the third overall pick to the fourth. Their win could have sent them as far down the order as seventh.

This week, the Broncos will try to end their 16-game losing streak to the Chiefs, and they enter the matchup as seven-point underdogs. If Denver wins, it could fall as far as the 14th pick. With a loss the Broncos could climb up to the second pick. Just about any pick from second the 14th is on the table. These massive jumps are possible because nine teams, including the Broncos have two wins or fewer, and 10 more teams have three wins.

The draft order is determined by the NFL’s standings in the preceding season. The team with the fewest wins picks first. Ties are broken by strength of schedule, which is calculated by averaging the win percentages of a team’s opponents. The team with the lower strength of schedule gets the earlier pick, since that means they played worse opponents and are therefore worse than the team they tied with.

That means the Broncos want the teams they play this season to lose, in order to help their position in the draft order. Divisional opponents, whom they play twice, count double.

Last week, the Broncos’ strength of schedule fell from .531 to .513, a positive development for Denver. The week before it had jumped to .531 from .481.

With every team in action in Week 8, we’ll rank 15 games by how much they’ll impact the Broncos’ position in the draft order. Of course the Broncos’ result against the Chiefs is most important, but we won’t include that since I’m not going to tell you to root against the Broncos, and their loss would obviously be the most positive impact to their draft position.

Here’s what the NFL Draft order looks like, ahead of Week 8:

PICK	TEAM	RECORD	SOS
No. 1	Chicago (via Carolina)	0-6	0.518
No. 2	Arizona	1-6	0.571
No. 3	Chicago	2-5	0.451
No. 4	Denver	2-5	0.513
No. 5	New York Giants	2-5	0.535
No. 6	New England	2-5	0.544
No. 7	Green Bay	2-4	0.452
No. 8	Los Angeles Chargers	2-4	0.513
No. 9	Tennessee	2-4	0.536
No. 10	New Orleans	3-4	0.411

ESPN’s Football Power Index measure’s team performance and remaining opponents to project the final standings. Here’s its projected top 10 picks, ahead of Week 8:

PROJ. PICK	TEAM	RECORD	PROJ. RECORD
No. 1	Arizona	1-6	3.6-13.4
No. 2	Chicago (via Carolina)	0-6	3.7-13.2
No. 3	Denver	2-5	5.3-11.7
No. 4	New York Giants	2-5	5.5-11.4
No. 5	Washington	3-4	6.0-11.0
No. 6	New England	2-5	6.0-11.0
No. 7	Chicago	2-5	6.2-10.8
No. 8	Las Vegas	3-4	6.4-10.6
No. 9	Green Bay	2-4	7.0-10.0
No. 10	Tennessee	2-4	7.4-9.6

Whether you’re cheering for a Broncos bounceback or a tank, here’s who Broncos fans should cheer for around the league…

TIER 4

These games hardly impact the Broncos’ draft pick.

15. Bengals (3-3) over 49ers (5-2)

The Bengals only have one more win than the Broncos, so there’s a chance they pass the Broncos in the draft order. A 49ers win is good for the Broncos if they tie the Cardinals at the end of the year. You could pick either side of this one, but I’ll root for the Bengals to build a larger gap in front of the Broncos.

14. Steelers (4-2) over Jaguars (5-2)

The Steelers play one more game against teams with two wins or fewer than the Jags. This game hardly matters.

13. Cowboys (4-2) over Rams (3-4)

Not only do the Cowboys play one more game against the two-win-or-fewer crew, they play both of the teams with a worse record than the Broncos.

TIER 3

These games have a slight impact on draft order, but not a major one.

12. Saints (3-4) over Colts (3-4)

Either one of these teams could compete with the Broncos for draft position. The Saints play far more teams with two wins or fewer than the Colts, and that’s why a New Orleans win is more beneficial.

11. Seahawks (4-2) over Browns (4-2)

The Broncos play the Browns. Their loss would be good for strength of schedule.

10. Buccaneers (3-3) over Bills (4-3)

The Broncos play the Bills, so their loss would be valuable. Plus, the Bucs only have one more win than Denver, so they could wind up competing with the Broncos for position.

TIER 2

These teams are potentially competing with the Broncos for position.

9. Raiders (3-4) over Lions (5-2)

This Raiders win would hurt the Broncos in strength of schedule, although the Lions loss cuts the pain in half. Las Vegas appears to be headed toward the bottom of the standings, though, and stopping them is more important.

8. Commanders (3-4) over Eagles (6-1)

The Broncos play the Commanders. Plus, ESPN’s FPI expects Washington to drop off.

TIER 1

These games are the most important. They’ll shift the Broncos’ position in the order significantly. This week, there are a lot of them.

7. Packers (2-4) over Vikings (3-4)

Either team could compete with the Broncos for draft position at the end of the year, but the Packers are the more immediate threat.

6. Titans (2-4) over Falcons (4-3)

The Titans only have two wins. They avoid Tier 1 because FPI favors them down the stretch and the Falcons aren’t too far in front of them.

5. Patriots (2-5) over Dolphins (5-2)

The Patriots could very easily earn a top-three pick, so every win will be crucial.

3. Bears (2-5) over Chargers (2-4)

The Bears are an easy candidate for a top-three pick, and this game helps the Broncos’ strength of schedule. I might be playing with fire, though, since the Chargers also only have two wins. They’ll turn things around… right?

4. Giants (2-5) over Jets (3-3)

Both teams could compete with the Broncos for draft position, but the Giants are the more immediate threat. They get the edge over the Patriots because this result would also help Denver’s strength of schedule.

2. Cardinals (1-6) over Ravens (5-2)

Arizona currently has the second pick in the draft. The Broncos could pass them, with a Denver loss, an Arizona win and no bad luck around the league.

1. Panthers (0-6) over Texans (3-3)

In these rankings, the top pick is still the goal. Carolina has a 1.5-game lead over the Broncos, so their loss is still the most valuable in the league. A strength of schedule bump since the Texans play the Broncos is an added bonus.