Broncos Hot Board 2.0: Which head coach candidates fit the Penner-Paton mold?

Broncos owner and CEO Greg Penner and general manager George Paton held a press conference Tuesday to explaining the decision to fire head coach Nathaniel Hackett.

Greg Penner gave some strong clues about what the Broncos are looking for in Hackett’s replacement.

“I’ve worked with a lot of great CEOs, and it starts with really strong leadership,” Penner said. “That’s going to be the most critical factor here in a head coach. Obviously, the X’s and O’s are important, but we need a strong leader for this organization that’s focused on winning. That starts with culture. It’s instilling a sense of accountability and discipline. We need an identity on offense. At the starting point, it has to be about culture and leadership. Those characteristics are what we’ll be focused on the most.” 

Paton added that the new coach isn’t just here to fix quarterback Russell Wilson.

“It’s really important that whoever we hire has a relationship with the quarterback—‘Russ’ and whoever our—the backups, but the entire offense as well as the entire defense,” Paton said. “We need someone to fix the special teams. Really, all three phases are what we want our coach to be an expert in, not just one person.”

With that in mind, we’ve added five more candidates to our Hot Board. We’re looking for coaches who know how to run a team from the top down and, at least for the most part, have head coach experience.

We also rated all of the coaches on the board by how well they fit the guidelines Penner and Paton outlined on Tuesday. We’re calling that the “Strong Leader Rating.”

Finally, a couple of coaches have slight updates to their entries. In particular, those are coaches with ties to Condoleeza Rice, and Broncos defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, whom Paton said the team wants to interview for the job.

Here’s Hot Board 2.0:

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The New Additions

Jim Caldwell, 67 — Former Detroit Lions and Indianapolis Colts Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 4/5

Looking for experience? Jim Caldwell has it in spades

Who knows if the retired coach will be interested in making a return after two years away, but he could be a more-than-serviceable option if the Broncos miss out on the big names in the cycle.

Caldwell began his coaching career in 1977, joining Iowa, his alma mater, just a few months after graduating. Iowa was Caldwell’s first of seven stops in the college ranks before making five stops in the NFL.

Caldwell took over as the Colts’ head coach in 2009 after six seasons as the team’s assistant head coach and as Peyton Manning’s quarterbacks coach. He made the Super Bowl in his first season, lost a home game in the Wild Card round in his second year and was fired after a 2-14 season when Manning went down.

Caldwell joined the Lions in 2014 and made the playoffs twice in four seasons, with a winning record in a third. Previously, Detroit had one winning season in 13 years.

The 67-year-old’s results speak for themselves. But he’s also 67 and three years into retirement.

Raheem Morris, 46 — Los Angeles Rams Defensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 3/5

Why is the Rams’ defensive coordinator a head coach candidate? Well, it isn’t because of the on-field results; Los Angeles was the No. 1 defense in the NFL in 2020 but has been right around league average in the two seasons since Morris took over. (For what it’s worth, the advanced numbers have the unit in the top five last year.)

If the Broncos are looking for an expert in all three phases, which Greg Penner said they were, then Morris could be the right fit.

The 46-year-old worked his way up the ranks as a defensive backs coach before earning his big break as the Buccaneers’ head coach from 2009-11. His 10-win second season looked like it could be a breakthrough, but seven total wins in his other two seasons left the Bucs with little choice but to move on. (Can you blame Raheem Morris for not succeeding with Josh Freeman under center?)

From there, Morris joined the Shanahan tree. He two years working under Mike Shanahan in Washington. Shanahan specifically took Morris under his wing. Then he flipped to the offensive side of the ball and joined the Falcons, where he worked alongside Kyle Shanahan for two seasons. The younger Shanahan was offensive coordinator and Morris was passing game coordinator and wide recievers coach. Morris was also the assistant head coach for five years in Atlanta and took over as interim head coach when Dan Quinn was fired.

The variety of experiences is appealing. Whoever gives Morris his second chance as head coach could be rewarded handsomely.

Jerod Mayo, 36 — New England Patriots Linebackers Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 3/5

When Jerod Mayo retired after an eight-year NFL career in 2016, he took an unconventional route.

Rather than pursuing a career in football, Mayo took a job with Optum, the technology division of health insurance company UnitedHealth Group, as an “executive-in-residence.” He stuck at Optum until 2019 and eventually became the Vice President of Business Development. That background could appeal to an owner who spends most of his time in board rooms and wants a CEO-type to take over his football team.

Mayo has spent the past three seasons as the Patriots’ inside linebackers coach, but his role is larger than that title implies. The Pats didn’t name coordinators this season, and Mayo’s role is most similar to a co-defensive coordinator job. The 36-year-old earned head coach interviews last offseason, including one with the Broncos, and could be due for a head job this offseason.

Steve Wilks, 53 — Carolina Panthers Interim Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 4/5

The Carolina Panthers were dead in the water. They started the season with a 1-4 record and fired head coach Matt Rhule, leaving defensive passing game coordinator Steve Wilks to take over as interim head coach.

Since that day, the Panthers have won half of their 10 games, and they’re only one game out of first place in the NFC South.

Wilks’ only season as a head coach didn’t go well. His Arizona Cardinals won three games. Their -200 point differential was the fourth-worst in franchise history. But if you were trying to make excuses, you’d point to how poorly rookie quarterback Josh Rosen performed.

Bruce Arians, 70 — Tampa Bay Buccaneers Senior Football Consultant
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

Just a few days after Tom Brady un-retired for another run with Tampa Bay, head coach Bruce Arians stepped down as head coach and into a cushy front office role.

Is Arians done coaching in the NFL? Probably. But he’d be a top candidate to take over in Denver.

The 70-year-old has won a Super Bowl as offensive coordinator of the Pittsburgh Steelers and another as the Bucs’ head coach in 2021. He’s a two-time AP NFL Coach of the Year and he has an 86-51-1 record as a head coach, which includes the most successful four-year, regular-season run in Cardinals franchise history.

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The Re-Treads

Dan Quinn, 52 — Dallas Cowboys Defensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 4/5

Dan Quinn was the clear favorite to become the Broncos’ head coach last offseason. He had coached a team to a Super Bowl, he fit the “players’ coach” mold the Broncos were looking for and, most importantly, he had previous experience working with Broncos general manager George Paton.

Quinn appeared to be a shoo-in.

But the Cowboys were able to retain their defensive coordinator by offering him a massive raise, and the Broncos wound up signing Nathaniel Hackett.

Could Dan Quinn be the answer this time around? Maybe.

On a long list like this one, Quinn belongs among the most likely candidates because of the clear interest from the organization in the past. But much has changed. The Walton-Penner Group is now running the show, and Greg Penner stated on Monday that he would be leading the search with assistance from Paton.

Quinn’s resume is impressive. He won a Super Bowl over the Broncos as the defensive coordinator of the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom defense. He made the Super Bowl as the head coach of the Atlanta Falcons but lost after leading 28-3. His Cowboys’ defense is currently sixth in the NFL in points allowed and third in sacks.

Quinn works with Brian Schottenheimer in Dallas. Schottenheimer, 49, was Russell Wilson’s offensive coordinator for three seasons in Seattle and could be a good fit as his offensive coordinator in Denver. Corbin Smith of ESPN reported that Wilson wanted Schottenheimer fired, but there’s no doubt Wilson played better in Schottenheimer’s offense than the current Broncos offense, so a reunion may make sense.

Frank Reich, 61 — Former Indianapolis Colts Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 3/5

The Colts fired Frank Reich last month, halfway through the fifth year of his first head coaching job. All-in-all, it was an impressive tenure.

Reich made two playoff appearances in five seasons while posting a 41-35-1 record. The numbers don’t jump off the page, but he was able to find a path to moderate success with a different quarterback every year. He won 10 games with Andrew Luck, then 7 with Jacoby Brissett, then 11 with Phillip Rivers, then 9 with Carson Wentz. This year, with Matt Ryan at the helm, Reich was 3-5-1 before he was fired.

Given the Broncos’ situation with Russell Wilson, Reich could be an appealing option. Quarterback guru may be too high of praise, but Reich found a way to compete with a revolving door of quarterbacks as a head coach, and he also won Super Bowl 52 as the Eagles’ offensive coordinator when Nick Foles took over for Carson Wentz late in the year.

The veteran coach isn’t a flashy option, but he could steady the ship in Denver.

Leslie Frazier, 63 — Buffalo Bills Defensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 3/5

The veteran coach’s first stint as the top dog didn’t go well; he won 21 of 54 games with the Minnesota Vikings from 2010-13. But coaches can improve, right? And one playoff appearance in three full seasons with Christian Ponder and Matt Cassell is pretty good, right?

For the past six seasons, Frazier has been the defensive coordinator for the Buffalo Bills. For the past three seasons, he’s also served as assistant head coach. In those six seasons, his defense finished in the top three in yards and points three times each. Last season, the Bills were first in the league in both.

Few re-tread coaches are flashy and Frazier isn’t one of them. But kicking the tires on an experienced vet who can run a team might not be a bad idea.

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The Up-and-Comers

Shane Steichen, 37 — Philadelphia Eagles Offensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 1/5

If Sean Payton is the Hall of Fame quarterback hitting free agency this offseason, then Shane Steichen is the first overall pick in the proverbial draft.

Among the young guns looking for their first head jobs in the league, Steichen stands alone at the top. He took over as the Philadelphia Eagles’ offensive coordinator in 2021 and has catapulted the offense to the top of the league. In the season before Steichen’s arrival, the Eagles scored 20.9 points per game. In his first year, that number jumped to 26.1 per game. This year, the Eagles score 29.7 points per game, the best mark in the league.

Pinning down Steichen’s offensive scheme is tricky. He spent nine of the first 10 years of his NFL career with the Chargers, which have (for the most part) run some form of the Air Coryell offense since the late 1970s. The idea is to overload deep zones and check for a downfield opening as the first read on virtually every play, and then progress closer to the line of scrimmage. The deep passes set up a power-running game.

With the Eagles, that offense has been morphed with a spread offense with frequent run-pass options. The scheme is obviously catered heavily toward Jalen Hurts’ skillset. A run-first offense with a passing game predicated on deep shots with easy RPO completions could be perfect for Russell Wilson.

Hiring a young coach is risky. Was the influx of talent the reason for the Eagles’ rise? Would quarterback Jalen Hurts have made a meteoric rise to NFL MVP favorite without Steichen? How much of a factor has head coach Nick Sirianni, an offensive mind, played in the rise?

After hiring seven consecutive first-time head coaches and watching all of them fail, the Broncos could opt for a proven commodity. If not, Steichen would make sense as their favorite option. However, they could face heavy competition from other teams looking for a coach.

DeMeco Ryans, 38 — San Francisco 49ers Defensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 2/5

San Francisco’s starting quarterback is done for the year.

San Francisco’s backup quarterback is done for the year.

Mr. Irrelevant Brock Purdy is running the offense the rest of the way.

And the 49ers have the fourth-best odds of winning the Super Bowl.

How? The defense.

San Francisco is giving up 290 yards per game. No other team is allowing less than 300. The 49ers are giving up 15.3 points per game. Nobody else is allowing less than 17.5.

DeMeco Ryans is in his second season as a defensive coordinator and sixth season as a coach, following a 10-year playing career.

If the Broncos bring in DeMeco Ryans, they’ll probably flip from a 3-4 defense to a 4-3. The change should be fairly simple, though some players may be odd fits. Randy Gregory would have no issue playing defensive end, but Baron Browning, Nik Bonitto and Jonathan Cooper may be relegated to pass-rushing situations or traded away.

Kellen Moore, 34 — Dallas Cowboys Offensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 1/5

If the Broncos hire Kellen Moore as their next head coach, he will become the 14th-youngest head coach in NFL history. That number doesn’t sound impressive, but eight of the younger coaches were hired in the 1960s or earlier.

Moore retired from the NFL after a short stint as a backup quarterback. After three years with the Cowboys as a player, he immediately became their quarterbacks coach after retiring in 2018. One year later, he became their offensive coordinator. And one year after that, he became a legitimate head coach candidate as a 31-year-old.

Here’s why: The Cowboy’s offenses have been among the best in the league since Moore took over.

When Moore took over, he inherited about the same personnel as the year before. Dak Prescott was the quarterback, Ezekiel Elliott was the running back, and Amari Cooper was the top receiver. Moore took that offense from 22nd in the NFL in points and yards to sixth in points and first in yards. In 2021, his offense was first in points and first in yards. This season, it’s third in points and eighth in yards.

The results speak for themselves.

Would having a head coach who is less than five months older than Russell Wilson cause an issue? Who knows. But Moore will get a head job somewhere soon, and it could be in Denver.

Eric Bieniemy, 53 — Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 2/5

Every year, Eric Bieniemy is listed as one of the top first-time head coach candidates in the NFL.

Every year, he is passed over.

Bieniemy took over as the Chiefs’ offensive coordinator in Patrick Mahomes’ first year as the team’s starting quarterback. Since then, Mahomes has been a Pro Bowler every year, and the Chiefs haven’t finished lower than sixth in any season in points or yards.

So why isn’t Bieniemy a head coach yet? We have a couple of guesses.

First of all, he doesn’t call the plays. While Bieniemy could bring over the Chiefs’ playbook, he isn’t high on the list of reasons they’ve been successful. Patrick Mahomes is No. 1. Head coach and play-caller Andy Reid is No. 2. Tight end Travis Kelce is my pick for No. 3.

Second, he has a reputation for being unpopular among players. If Reid is the good cop, Bieniemy is the bad cop. Running back LeSean McCoy was interviewed on SiriusXM’s “I Am Athlete Tonight” this offseason and shared his thoughts.

“No one hires him because they know what type of coach he really is,” McCoy said. “He talks to players a certain way.”

When Bieniemy was Colorado’s running backs coach in 2001, he made national headlines by calling top recruit running back Marcus Houston “Markeesha” during practices. He also had a fairly lengthy legal history while playing and coaching at Colorado, which included a DUI, putting his hand on a female parking attendant’s neck, a bar fight and others. All of these infractions are more than 20 years old, but they could help to explain why Bieniemy hasn’t landed a head job, and they may stand in the way of him becoming the Broncos’ head coach, considering they happened just up the road in Boulder.

Bieniemy is likely to be a candidate for multiple head coach vacancies this offseason, but there’s no reason to believe this cycle will result in him landing a job after the last four haven’t.

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The Trade Candidates

Sean Payton, 58 — Ex-New Orleans Saints Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

The top of every team’s big board has the same name: Sean Payton.

When Payton interviews for jobs this offseason, he won’t be trying to win over ownership groups as much as the ownerships will be trying to convince him their team is his best option.

For those who don’t know, Payton earned his big break as the Saints’ head coach in 2006 and held that job through the 2021 season. (He took the 2012 season off as he was suspended.) In that time he amassed a 152-89 record, a 9-8 postseason record and won a Super Bowl. He was the AP Coach of the Year in 2006 and made the playoffs nine times in 15 seasons. He retired last offseason and joined FOX Sports as an analyst.

The catch is that the Saints hold Payton’s rights through next season. Any team who can convince Payton to join them will have to compensate New Orleans through a trade, which could include a first-round pick or more.

The second catch is that he reportedly is looking at the Chargers and Cowboys as his favorite options, according to ESPN’s Josina Anderson. A previous report from The Washington Post’s Jason La Canfora suggested Payton wants to coach the Chargers and quarterback Justin Herbert in particular. Another report from NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport earlier this month suggested Payton wants to stay in Los Angeles, either with the Chargers or Rams. No reports have indicated Payton has any interest in taking over the Broncos.

The third and final catch is that ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Saturday that Payton has already started putting together an “all-star staff” that includes former Broncos head coach Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator. A reunion between the Broncos and Fangio has virtually no chance of happening, so Payton would likely have to move to Plan B if he chose Denver.

The odds appear to be slim for Denver, but maybe enough money can win Sean Payton over.

Mike Tomlin, 50 — Pittsburgh Steelers Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

Rumors of Mike Tomlin’s potential departure swirled last offseason. USC was in the midst of a big-money coaching search, and Tomlin’s name was at the center of it for a few days. Tomlin shut down the rumors by saying: “Never say never, but never.”

Still, trade rumors have circulated ever since. It’s unlikely Tomlin will be on the move, but the right offer could tempt the Steelers. Multiple first-round picks would probably be the asking price.

Tomlin set an NFL record by finishing his first 15 seasons as an NFL head coach without a single losing record. If the Steelers win both of their last two games, Tomlin’s streak will extend to 16.

But the results have fallen off for the Super Bowl XLIII Champion, at least by his standards. Big Ben Roethlisberger is out of the picture, and the Steelers could be tempted to flip Tomlin for major draft capital while his value is still high.

Like Sean Payton, any team with an open head coach position would love Tomlin.

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The College Coaches

Jim Harbaugh, 59 — Michigan Wolverines Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

UPDATE (12/27): Greg Penner noted that Condoleeza Rice will be part of the decision-making group throughout this process. She has served in similar roles before. She also has strong ties to Stanford. When Jim Harbaugh was coaching at Stanford, he called Rice is “secret weapon” when recruiting. That bond could become important as the Broncos choose a coach.

The veteran coach has spent the past eight years coaching his alma mater, and he was firmly on the hot seat up until the last two. Rumors of a return to the NFL have circulated for a half-decade. He interviewed for the Minnesota Vikings job last offseason.

Now, Harbaugh is a week away from his second College Football Playoff appearance, but there’s a chance he could opt to bail after the season. Standards are high at Michigan, and even top-10 finishes could be scrutinized. Recruiting, finding transfers, re-recruiting your own roster to avoid transfers and talking with boosters make every day a grind. Coaching in the NFL isn’t a cushy job, but the offseason grind isn’t nearly as difficult.

When Harbaugh left Stanford for the San Francisco 49ers in 2011, he found quick results. Before his arrival, the 49ers had gone eight years without a winning record. In his first three years on the job, Harbaugh made the NFC Championship Game three times and the Super Bowl in one of those seasons. He left for Michigan after his fourth season, an 8-8 disappointment.

Harbaugh will be one of the top coaches on the market… if he’s on the market. He signed a new contract with Michigan last year, which pays him upwards of $7 million per year before incentives. NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero and Ian Rapoport reported earlier this month that their sources believe Harbaugh would be interested in the right NFL opening… for a price.

David Shaw, 50 — Ex-Stanford Cardinal Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 4/5

UPDATE (12/27): Greg Penner noted that Condoleeza Rice will be part of the decision-making group throughout this process. Rice, who has strong ties to Stanford, was part of the committee that helped replace Shaw when he resigned earlier this month. Rice and Shaw likely know each other well, and that could help Shaw’s case.

If you’re looking for a polished, experienced coach who can run a tight ship and has a winning track record, David Shaw might be your guy.

Shaw spent the past 12 seasons as Stanford’s head coach. He was promoted from offensive coordinator when Jim Harbaugh left the program for the NFL. He won three Pac-12 Championships, won Pac-12 Coach of the Year four times and finished in the AP Poll’s top 10 three times. The Cardinal finished in the top 15 on two other occasions. Shaw left the program a few weeks ago with a 96-54 record.

Shaw’s success at Stanford, the success of Jim Harbaugh when he lept from Stanford to the NFL, and the pro-style nature of his offense and his program made him a hot NFL candidate for most of the 2010s. He never interviewed for the Broncos opening.

Since then, Shaw has faded. Stanford had a losing record in each of the past four seasons. To be fair, the difficulty of admitting transfers and the lack of boosters who can pay out NIL money left Stanford facing an uphill battle in the changing world of college football.

Still only 50 years old, Shaw’s next chapter could come in the NFL, and he could be an easy fit in Denver. Broncos part-owner Condoleezza Rice’s deep ties to Stanford, including currently serving as the Director of the Hoover Institution and a professor in global business and the economy, could help Shaw’s chances.

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The In-House Options

Ejiro Evero, 41 — Denver Broncos Defensive Coordinator
Strong Leader Rating: 2/5

UPDATE (12/27): Broncos general manager George Paton said that the Broncos “hope to interview” Evero for the head job.

Ejiro Evero is one of the big-name, up-and-coming defensive minds. He’s been a hot name for most of the season, making Tom Pelisserro’s list of top young candidates for open jobs. His experience with the Los Angeles Rams over the past five seasons adds to his resume.

The Broncos defense has been a bright spot this season, but it’s fading fast. Over the past three games, Denver has averaged 33 points allowed. Up next is a date with the Kansas City Chiefs and their second-ranked offense. Evero’s stock could be falling fast.

Evero may be a particularly bad fit in Denver. He was Hackett’s college roommate and one of his best friends. He was offered the interim head coach job after Hackett was fired and declined, according to 9News’ Mike Klis. Evero may prefer to cut ties with the Broncos and hit the market as one of the top defensive coordinators available and a potential head coaching candidate.

Jerry Rosburg, 67 — Denver Broncos Interim Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 2/5

The two-decade NFL coaching veteran was a late addition to the Broncos’ coaching staff as a senior assistant who helped Nathaniel Hackett with game management. When Hackett was fired, the Broncos let Rosburg take over for the last two weeks of the season. His highest title before this season was special teams coordinator, which he’s held with Notre Dame (1999-2000), the Cleveland Browns (2001-06), the Atlanta Falcons (2007), and the Baltimore Ravens (2008-18).

To put it bluntly, Rosburg has a remarkably slim chance to stick around as head coach next season. He’s an older coach who spent the past three seasons out of the game.

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The Non-Candidate Candidates

Mike Shanahan, 70 — Retired Broncos Head Coach
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

If Mike Shanahan returned as the Broncos’ head coach, he’d finish his first season back tied for the fourth-oldest coach in NFL history. He’d tie for first in the first game of his third season. Shanahan has been retired for nine years, and there’s no reason to think he’s interested in a comeback.

Peyton Manning, 46 — Hall of Fame Broncos Quarterback
Strong Leader Rating: 5/5

Peyton Manning could ask for just about any job in the NFL and have it within hours.

Offensive coordinator? Head coach? General manager? If Peyton wants it, he’ll get it.

But Manning has shown almost no interest in a coaching role. His other business ventures are thriving and require significantly less time. If Manning gets the itch to coach, the Broncos would be crazy not to sign him up. So would any other team in the league.

But a return for Peyton Manning is simply a pipe dream.

Writing these 11 sentences was a waste of time.