Broncos appear well-situated to finally retake the AFC West from the Chiefs

“Success is walking from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.”

– Winston Churchill

Been a long time since the Denver Broncos tasted the success of winning their division, and the last time they did, that success propelled them all the way to their third championship. Since then, for a record-setting nine straight seasons the AFC West has belonged to the Kansas City Chiefs, and for those nine straight seasons everyone else has been left muttering that maybe next year would be different. Nine years in NFL years almost feel like dog years, as if a lifetime has come and gone. That dominant KC run makes the idea of Denver winning the division sound like a fairy tale, but Week 1 brought at least a moment’s glimmer of possibility. The Chiefs stumbled in Brazil with as many questions as answers, the Broncos handled their business against the Titans showing plenty of room for improvement, and for once there’s reason to suggest the division race could be more open than the bookies think.

The case for Denver begins, as it should, with balance. Every team in the AFC West has a headliner… Mahomes, Herbert, Davante Adams… but none of those other squads has three units that can reasonably claim to be trending up at the same time. Denver’s Week 1 performance wasn’t flawless, but it offered a window into what Sean Payton has been building: a defense that suffocates, an offense that can stretch the field (even when it sputters), and a special teams unit that, when they don’t shoot themselves in the foot, might actually tilt close games in their favor.

Start with the offenses. Kansas City is still Kansas City, except not quite. With Rashee Rice suspended for six games and rookie Xavier Worthy recovering from a collision-with-Kelce dislocated shoulder, the Chiefs’ wide receiver group looks like a casting call for “Who Wants to Be the Next Guy Mahomes Makes Famous?” Travis Kelce is still the steady north star, but defenses are keying on that, and even stars need supporting constellations. Mahomes can make lemonade out of practice squad lemons, but it isn’t the type of a phalanx he was commanding in 2018. By contrast, Denver’s offense in Week 1 had some hiccups, but was often promising. Bo Nix made some uncharacteristic errors to lead off his second season, and somehow still looks sturdier, calmer, less like the rookie captain faking confidence and more like a quarterback willing to let the game come to him. J.K. Dobbins, healthy again, ran with the kind of intent that forces defenses to respect play action. Rookie RJ Harvey provided a lightning bolt with his 50-yard burst. Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy still give the Broncos credible perimeter threats, and the offensive line, while not as dominant as recency suggests they will be, held up long enough to allow Payton’s offense to function. Denver’s offense isn’t prettier than Kansas City’s (yet), but it may be deeper, and if the weapons around Nix keep growing, the Broncos may be able to tilt that comparison in their favor.

Defense is where Denver can already claim a real edge. Vance Joseph’s group sacked Tennessee’s rookie quarterback six times and clamped down after halftime. They’ll need linebacker Dre Greenlaw back to be truly whole, and losing Malcolm Roach to short-term IR hurts interior depth, but those two should return, and the core of this defense is intact. Pat Surtain II remains one of the league’s best corners, the pass rush looks fast, and the unit as a whole appears cohesive in a way Kansas City’s defense, under pressure to carry the team, did not in Week 1. The Chiefs were gashed by the Chargers on the ground and looked disjointed covering tight ends. Spagnuolo’s group has been opportunistic in the past, but right now Denver looks far more like the more stable, reliable defense.

Special teams might be where optimism requires the biggest caveat. Wil Lutz drilled everything he was asked to in Week 1, and punter Tommy Townsend gave Denver steady field position. But Marvin Mims muffed a punt, and the coverage team allowed a 71-yard return. The latter could have flipped the game before halftime. The former was saved by the defense making huge plays. It wasn’t perfect, but it was enough for Week 1. Kansas City, meanwhile, rolled out a reliable Harrison Butker who hit from 59 yards and reminded everyone that when the offense stalls, he can still salvage drives. But not everything around Butker was so rosy, either. The Chiefs have their own special teams demons to exorcise. The fairest way to see this as an eventual positive comparison for Denver is to say that the Broncos have the makings of a good special teams unit if the errors can be ironed out. The upside is there, but it’s conditional.

Quarterback is the unavoidable conversation. Bo Nix and Patrick Mahomes aren’t peers, but that doesn’t mean they can’t both matter to the AFC West race in different ways. Nix came into this season bulked up, more prepared, with an offseason of training alongside Drew Brees and the weight of being named a second-year captain on his shoulders. WHile Nix made his fair share of unforced errors in Week 1, he did not seem to be failing under the weight of his burden, but more just getting his sea legs back. He doesn’t need to outplay Mahomes in a vacuum; he needs to elevate Denver’s offense enough that the Broncos’ depth across units can tilt the scales. Mahomes remains one of the best quarterbacks on the planet, capable of covering flaws that would sink other teams, but if the weapons around him keep disappearing, and the scheme stays the same as the past few seasons, even his brilliance might not be enough to keep the streak alive. Even a healthy Kelce can only do so much, and defenses know exactly where Mahomes wants to go with the ball.

Zooming out to the division helps the perspective. The Chargers beat Kansas City head-to-head in Week 1, which means they have to be in the conversation, but they remain the Chargers—talented, dangerous, and historically allergic to finishing the season with a bow. The Raiders are still somewhere between rebuilding and treading water, with a roster that doesn’t quite scare anyone. That leaves Denver, which hasn’t been in the neighborhood of contention for the West since the Peyton Manning era. The Broncos don’t have to be flawless to win this division; they just have to be steadier than the wobbling Chiefs and less snakebitten than the Chargers. A goal that has seemed impossible the last few seasons is suddenly tantalizingly possible.

Schedules matter too, though it’s always dangerous to read too much into them in September. Denver’s early slate gives them a chance to stack wins, and with altitude as a hopeful ally, home games can turn tight margins in their favor. Kansas City faces the adjustment period of missing Rice and nursing Worthy back to full strength, and their early misstep in Brazil already put them behind pace. By Thanksgiving, the math could look very different, but 1/17th of the way into the season, the table is set for Denver to at least bring a little well-deserved belief.

And belief is half the battle in a division that has been painted red (and white and gold) for nearly a decade. Denver has a chance to turn that shade to predominantly orange, not by out-Mahomesing Mahomes, but by fielding the most complete team in the West. The Broncos may not dominate every category, but offense, defense, and special teams each have a plausible argument in their favor. Schedule the boys for a little duck for dinner. The AFC West dynasty might finally have company.