Avs Monday Mailbag: Sam Girard, the new guys, Kamenev, and more

  Welcome to the weekly Avs mailbag, where we answer whatever Avs questions you have on your mind. If you have any questions for the mailbag, leave them for Evan Rawal on twitter or respond in the comments.

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What’s happening with Sam Girard right now is particularly interesting. Girard was, at least to my eye, easily the Avs best defenseman for the first handful of games and looked ready to take another step. Of late, though, there seems to be a little bit of a struggle for him with the puck, particularly on the breakout.

I’ve got a few theories on what’s going on, but the biggest thing I’ve noticed is that opposing teams are forechecking Girard extremely hard these days, a lot of times sending multiple skaters in to attack him. Girard against one forechecker…I’ll take Sam every time, but two? That’s where any defenseman is going to get into trouble. If you take a look at the giveaway he had in the opening seconds of the Dallas game, it was partially due to the Stars’ heavy forecheck, as he had to deal with someone chasing him down from behind and another forechecker in front of him. I’ve noticed more and more teams doing that of late.

It’s a credit to Girard, as teams have recognized how important he is to the Avs breakout, and it’s something he will need to adjust too. One thing about Sam, whether it’s on the breakout or in the offensive zone, he likes to make the perfect play, sometimes overpassing the puck when he should keep it a little more simple. That may be something he has to adjust too and if he’s in trouble, just to chip it out and live to fight another day.

Another thing that comes into play is the spacing between the Avs forwards and defense. Sometimes, it’s a little too big, and even the best defenseman is going to get into trouble if he has no support. Avs forwards sometimes get a little too comfortable when Girard has the puck, knowing how good he normally is on the breakout, thinking “Sam’s got it”. That forces them to take some chances and they normally would not take with other defenders, and the gaps get too big. They’ve improved of late but just something I’ve noticed.

The thing with Girard is that even though he’s struggling with turnovers a bit, he usually still makes several nice plays on the breakout and in the offensive zone to make up for it. He’s still incredibly young, so growing pains aren’t a huge surprise, but considering he’s been one of the best in the NHL in terms of breakout efficiency, the turnovers of late have been concerning.

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How do you pick just one? It seems like every addition the Avs made in the summer has not only lived up to the hype but surpassed any expectations you may have had.

If I had to pick just one (and that’s tough to do), I would have to go with Nazem Kadri. As good as Burakovsky, Donskoi, and Bellemare have been, having a legitimate second line center in Kadri behind Nathan MacKinnon changes the dynamic of the entire team.

Beyond producing at a 62-point pace, he’s been good defensively for the team, and while there is an argument to be made that face-offs are an overrated stat, Kadri has been incredible at them, and his ability to win face-offs in the offensive zone has led directly to a few goals. Just the presence of Kadri alone allows the Avs to get creative when it comes to Nathan MacKinnon’s ice time and gives them the ability to put him out there as much as they want in offensive situations.

Kadri’s biggest problem this year has been taking penalties, but it’s countered by the fact that he tends to draw a lot of penalties himself, so it evens out in the end. Kadri alone is outproducing Tyson Barrie and Alexander Kerfoot, so the Avs are getting everything they had hoped out of Kadri.

Evan once Mikko comes back, what does that do to our projected lines? Donskoi really has done well at RW w/Nate so I know he’ll go back w/Kadri but a case could be made

— Thick and thin Avs fan! (@orig_rockiefan) November 17, 2019

As brutal as this injury run has been, the Avs have held their heads above ground because some others have stepped up. Donskoi is one of those guys, and he’s produced well playing with Nathan MacKinnon. He’s been the third wheel in the past on top lines, so it’s something to consider.

Ultimately, when Rantanen comes back, I don’t think there should be any question that you put the Big Moose back with MacKinnon. They’re too good together and complement each other really well. Where I think things should maybe get looked at is with the other wing. Donskoi can play left wing, and a big part of me would love to see what Landeskog and Kadri could do together. I do think it’s unlikely to happen, because the Avs were doing well to start the year with their big line together and Kadri running the second line, but if it were up to me, I would give it a shot putting Donskoi with MacKinnon and Rantanen, and running with Landeskog, Kadri, and Burakovsky as your second line.

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At even strength? The Avs have been very good. When healthy, they’re four lines deep and were coming at teams in waves. If this team gets healthy, I have no worries about what this team can do at even strength. The amount of shots on goal they’re giving up is a bit of a concern, but missing as many forwards as they are might be playing a role in that.

The concern comes into play with special teams. Not having your number one goaltender will hurt no matter what on the penalty kill, but too often the Avs are giving up that “royal road” pass and it’s burning them. It would help if their defensemen would stop taking penalties, because the defenders that take them are typically the ones who are supposed to be out there helping the penalty kill.

The power play is a tough one to comprehend. They’re in the bottom half of the league on the power play now, and while missing Rantanen has hurt them big time, their process on the power play when he was in the lineup was still not great. The Avs power play is set up for the top three on the umbrella (MacKinnon, Makar, and Rantanen) to make it all happen, and when that doesn’t work, there really isn’t a whole lot else going on. It’s a very static power play overall without a lot of puck or player movement, and that’s been the case for longer than just this year. The talent in the lineup has still made them pretty efficient in past years on the power play, but their process can certainly be better.

Seeing them try a different power play breakout against Vancouver that ended with Kadri getting a breakaway was nice. They’ve used that breakout in the past and it’s given them success, but it happens very rarely.

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I have to admit that I probably like Kamenev more than others. I think he’s a very smart player who is a lot better defensively than he’s given credit for. With all these injuries, I’m wondering why the Avs aren’t giving him a chance on the penalty kill, but coaches love the guys they love.

As for his future with the Avs, I’m not so sure how long he will be here. The reality is the Avs have a ton of centers, both in their lineup currently, and a few on the way in Shane Bowers and Alex Newhook. Unless Kamenev really takes off, I don’t see him being with the Avs a whole lot longer. It’s not a good sign for him that even with all these injuries, the staff still doesn’t trust him to play a ton of minutes, despite producing in limited time. I think he is an NHL player who can play in this league for a while, but it may not be with the Avs.

At this point what are reasonable expectations for Makar the rest of the season?

— Jackie Kay (@tigervixxxen) November 18, 2019

At this point, there is nothing reasonable about what Makar is doing. A rookie defenseman producing at over a point per game is almost unheard of. The thing is he looked relatively pedestrian for the first ten or so games this year, and has only recently taken over games, so he was picking up points just on pure talent alone.

You have to expect him to hit a rookie wall at some point, as it happens to any rookie coming out of the NCAA. Still, at this point, even if he finishes the year with a point every other game, he’ll finish with over 50 points. I guess I would consider that reasonable, because I do expect it to slow down in the second half. I predicted 49 points before the year started, and even I thought that might be a little high. Now we all look stupid for underestimating the young man.

The most impressive part of what’s happening is how much better he is getting defensively. The physical play has picked up, and he knows where to be in the defensive end now. The fact that he’s picking all of this up so quickly shows how special a talent he really is. You could argue he will be the Avs number one defenseman by the end of this season, if he isn’t already. The Avs hit the jackpot when they lost the draft lottery back in 2017.

That’s it for this week. I’ll be back next Monday answering more of your questions.