Avs Mailbag: Goaltending situation, surprise prospects, MacKinnon vs. McDavid, and more

Welcome to the weekly Avs mailbag, where we answer whatever Avs questions you have on your mind. If you have any questions for the mailbag, leave them for Evan Rawal on twitter or respond in the comments.

How crazy would it be to sign Francouz long term rather than Grubauer?

— Jackie Kay (@tigervixxxen) December 15, 2019

I got a lot of questions around this situation, so I need to touch on it. When it comes to goaltenders, I don’t think anything is “crazy”. That position is always a wild card, so whatever way the Avs decide to go with wouldn’t surprise me at all. Obviously we will see how things go the rest of the year, but with Francouz being an unrestricted free agent after this season, and Grubauer having another year on his contract, it would be kind of nice if the Avs could convince Francouz to stick around another season to kick the can down the road on this decision.

That, however, is easier said than done. Francouz is sitting on a fat .932 save percentage right now, and while I don’t expect that to keep up, if he hovers anywhere around .920 to finish the season, he’ll have his fair share of teams to choose from this summer if he decides to hit the open market. By the time July 1 rolls around, Francouz will be 30, so I’m not sure he’ll want to be the backup or in a rotation if some team comes offering him big money to be a starter. I still really like Grubauer, and although it seems weird, he is the younger of the two by about a year and a half. We can’t forget that Grubauer played a rather huge role in this team making the playoffs last season with his goaltending. He’s still a good goaltender and once he gets fully healthy again, I have faith in him.

I think the interesting thing to watch will be how teams attack Francouz moving forward. There is very little tape on him at this level, and shooters learn fast what opposing goalies weaknesses are. As good as he’s been, he’s left a lot of big rebounds out and eventually that may hurt him. I’m completely okay with the Avs rotating for now and keeping both guys relatively fresh down the stretch. I also think that’s a good idea in terms of seeing what you really have in Francouz to help with a decision down the road. I think the Avs are in a pretty good spot here in net for now, but if Francouz keeps this up, he may be pricing himself out of Denver.

Should the Avs make a trade before or at the deadline for a 3/4 goalie with the injury to Bibeau? If so who would you add/who would Sakic want to add?

— Avs Rich (@MysteryAlaska_) December 15, 2019

Honestly, I’m not sure if a trade is really necessary. Bibeau wasn’t very good in the AHL last year, and didn’t exactly inspire confidence in his two starts this season. Hunter Miska, however, has been very good in his ten games and is sitting at .937 right now in terms of his save percentage. The Avs didn’t seem in a huge rush to get a proven third starter with some NHL experience all summer, and I’m not sure they are now. If you are looking to show the organization that you will reward good play, then the answer might just be to give Miska an NHL contract for the rest of the year.

Which prospect currently in the Avs system do you think will surprise fans the most?

— Pokecheque 🇺🇦🏳️‍🌈🏳️‍⚧️ (@Pokecheque) December 15, 2019

All prospects get overrated to a degree because it’s essentially all a guessing game, but two guys I could see surprising are Nick Henry and Daniil Zhuravlyov. Henry had a nice start to his AHL career this year but has struggled a bit of late and been in and out of the lineup, but I like his game, and he seems to understand what he needs to do to be successful. He’s also got a laser of a shot. I don’t anticipate him being a top-six forward or anything, but a decent role player down the line.

Zhuravlyov is playing regular minutes in the KHL as a teenager. For a league that seems to leave behind younger players, that can’t be ignored. I would also anticipate he plays a decent sized role on the Russian team in the next month at the World Juniors. I don’t think there’s anything flashy about his game overall, but for someone you drafted late in the draft, he may be an option for NHL minutes down the line, and that’s all you can ask for.

If you were to have either Cale Makar or Nathan MacKinnon on your hockey team, which one would you have?

— Blake Wheeler (@blakewheeler08) December 15, 2019

This is like asking a parent which one of their kids is their favorite. They probably have one, but they don’t really want to say…

If I have to choose one, I would probably lean towards MacKinnon right now. He’s a top-three player in the world and as good as Makar has been in his rookie year, I would lean more towards the guy whose proven it and been doing it for a few years now. There’s no one way to build a Championship team these days, but having an elite center has typically been the way to do it. With the way Makar has started his career, this may be a different conversation in a year or even a few months, but MacKinnon is one of the best players in the world and I don’t anticipate that changing any time soon.

Hypothetical: would you trade Mackinnon for McDavid one for one?

— Jason Hautzinger (@jackslung) December 16, 2019

Not to sound like a homer here, but my answer would be no.

BUT…that’s only because of their contract situations. The reality is MacKinnon’s cap hit is almost half of McDavid’s, and you can add some good pieces with the 6.2M difference between the two contracts. With a hard cap, that cannot be ignored if you’re trying to build a cup winner. I do believe McDavid is a better player than MacKinnon, although not by a ton. McDavid is a freak of nature, and the things he can do at high speed is unmatched by anyone. There’s just not a big enough gap between the two players to make the swap if you’re taking contracts into account.

Bednar is now .500 after the 22 win season. Why doesn’t he get more credit for the teams success, especially with the injuries? He’s been a winner at every level? Or is it the idea “anyone can win with this lineup?”

— Don (@Elkilr) December 15, 2019

He really does kind of fly under the radar. I like Bednar a lot. He’s an interesting guy, if you watch his interviews and press conferences because he doesn’t say a lot, but he actually does give out a good bit of information and detail in terms of how he sees the game (not so much with injuries). He has gotten this team to buy in big time, and he has a good relationship with the players as well.

The sad thing is that he may not be in the running for the Jack Adams award this year because the Avs were expected to be good. That award, unfortunately, usually goes to the “surprise” team that a coach got into the playoffs or the coach that got the best goaltending that year. Bednar deserves to be in the conversation with how he’s gotten this team through the injury bug, and quite frankly, he’s looking like one of the better coaches in the history of this franchise. The Avs have a good one with Bednar, and as I mentioned recently on one of our podcasts, the decision to keep Bednar after the abysmal 16-17 season is one of Sakic’s best.