Analyzing the Colorado women's path to a Pac-12 title

(Colorado beat Washington 64-52 in the first round of the tournament. Read more about CU’s round-one performance here. Next up is No. 14 Arizona, the fourth-seeded team in this tournament, with a trip to the semifinals on the line.)

BOULDER — The Pac-12 Tournament is on the way and your Buffs are hot.

Colorado will open up Pac-12 Tournament play when they take on the Washington Huskies at 1 p.m. on Wednesday. The Buffs finished Pac-12 play in fifth place with a 9-7 record while Washington finished last at 2-12. The Pac-12 wasn’t able to reschedule all games missed because of covid, so the records are unbalanced.

The Buffs won six of their last seven games before the tournament and could be poised for a deep run.

If all goes according to plan, the Buffs figure to play No. 12 Washington, No. 4 Arizona, No. 1 Stanford and then No. 2 Oregon in the championship. But tournaments rarely follow the chalk. Take a look at the bracket for yourself:

Here’s what’s on the way for the Buffs in Vegas:

Round 1: vs. No. 12 Washington

(Game story with details here.)

Don’t expect many points from the Huskies in this one.

Washington will bring the worst scoring offense in the Pac-12 (56 ppg) into Vegas and they’ll face the best scoring defense (57 ppg) in the first round. Washington is also last in the conference in turnover margin, while the Buffs are first in steals. Freshman guard Kindyll Wetta is third in the conference with 2.11 steals per game, while junior guard Jaylyn Sherrod is sixth with 1.81.

In the only regular-season matchup between the the two teams, Colorado came out on top by a score of 66-43. Tournament basketball is unpredictable but the signs are pointing toward a big CU win.

Throughout the tournament, it’ll be worth paying attention to CU’s shooting. While the defense has been stout, the scoring has come and gone throughout the season. In particular, the Buffs have struggled from the 3-point line where they’ve made a league-worst 30% of their shots. Washington has the only 3-point defense better than Colorado’s by the numbers.

Pay extra attention to Colorado’s Quay Miller—the Pac-12’s Sixth Player of the Year—and Tameiya Sadler who both transferred from Washington over the offseason.

Quarterfinals: vs. No. 4 Arizona

Arizona is a tough team, that’s why they’re currently ranked 14th in the nation in the AP Poll.

Last year, the Wildcats ended a 15-year NCAA Tournament drought by making a run to the national title game. The Cats lost to Stanford 54-53.

But this year’s Arizona team is different. Aari McDonald left to become the No. 3 pick in the WNBA Draft and she’s left a hole in the Wildcat backcourt. Plus, star forward Cate Reese will not be available for Arizona’s first game. The 6-2 senior leads the Wildcats in points, rebounds and field goal percentage.

Arizona has lost two of its last three games, including an 18-point home loss to UCLA.

The Wildcats beat Colorado 75-56 in Tempe earlier this season, but there’s plenty of reason to think the Buffs will bee able to avenge that loss this time around. Expect this game to be a pick ’em, or for Arizona to be a slight favorite.

(UPDATE: US sportsbooks aren’t offering lines on women’s college basketball, but offshore Sportsbook Bovada has Arizona as a 2.5-point favorite over Colorado.)

Semifinals: likely vs. No. 1 Stanford

Who knows, maybe Oregon State or Arizona State can knock off the No. 2 team in the country. I doubt it.

While Stanford is a perennial powerhouse in women’s college basketball, the Buffs have played them close recently. Of the past six meetings between the two teams, all but one have come down to the game’s final minute. However, Colorado could only pull one of them out.

Stanford fills up the conference leaderboards. Cameron Brink and Haley Jones are first and second in the Pac-12 in rebounds per game. Fran Belibi and Brink are first and second in field goal percentage. Lexie Hull leads the conference in steals. It’s no surprise that the Cardinal is on a 17-game winning streak.

If Colorado wants to pul off the upset, the Buffs will need to hold their own on the boards. Stanford’s length allows them to beat up just about every opponent in rebounding and the extra possessions help Stanford keep most games out of reach. Their +9.21 rebounding margin is more than 3 boards better than second-place. The Buffs check in at ninth.

Colorado has proven it can hang with, and even beat, Stanford. But it’ll take a heroic performance to knock of the Cardinal in the tournament. Stanford will be a fairly heavy favorite in this potential semi-final matchup.

Finals: likely vs. No. 2 Oregon

We’re getting ahead of ourselves here, but why not. It’s March.

If Colorado can manage Washington and Arizona and then pull off the upset of the second-best team in the country, they’ll have a chance to compete for the conference title. This game should be against Oregon, but Washington State figures to put up a solid fight.

These aren’t Sabrina Ionescu’s Ducks from a few years ago, who were consistently ranked in the top 10 nationally and starred in three consecutive Pac-12 title games. This team is outside the top 25 rankings and is coming off an ugly tournament performance last year in which the Ducks lost their first game.

The Ducks are a well-rounded team. They pass the ball well and avoid turnovers. They hold their own on the boards against just about everybody. They have consistent scoring; Endyia Rogers and Nyara Sabally are both putting up 15 points per game.

But the Ducks could be primed for a quick trip to Vegas. Oregon hosts nearly 8,000 fans per game, a mark that only Arizona can come close to. That pays off with a major homecourt advantage: the Ducks are 12-3 at home but they’re 7-7 away from the Matthew Knight Arena.

The Ducks have a very solid, consistent team and a program that has made deep postseason runs before. But the Buffs knocked off Oregon in a double-overtime thriller in Boulder last weekend, so if they can get to this point there’s no reason to think they can’t finish the deal.

My picks

Round 1: Colorado over Washington, Oregon State over Arizona State, USC over UCLA, Utah over Cal

(UPDATE: I was three-for-four. UCLA beat USC and the first round was chalk.)

Quarterfinals: Colorado over Arizona, Stanford over Oregon State, Oregon over USC, Washington State over Utah

Semifinals: Stanford over Colorado, Oregon over Washington State

Finals: Stanford over Oregon