Analyzing Colorado's path to a Pac-12 title

BOULDER — The Buffs are in a predicament.

Despite capping Tad Boyle’s ninth 20-win season off with a seven-wins-in-eight-games stretch, Colorado is on the outside looking in to the NCAA Tournament. The selection committee is famously unpredictable but even a run to the Pac-12 Championship Game—which would likely include wins over Oregon and Arizona—probably won’t be enough to get the Buffs into the bubble.

Colorado is left with one path: win the Pac-12 Tournament.

The tournament will run Wednesday through Saturday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Thanks to a fourth-place regular-season finish, the Buffs will have a first-round bye for the second time since joining the Pac-12 Conference. Colorado will join the action in the quarterfinals at 2:30 p.m. PST. on Thursday against the winner of the Oregon State-Oregon first-round matchup.

Here’s what the tournament will look like from Colorado’s perspective:

ROUND 1: #5 Oregon vs. #12 Oregon State

The Buffs get to sit on the couch for the first round, thanks to their late-season run; Colorado was 5-7 and Oregon was 10-4, but the Ducks were just as cold down the stretch as the Buffaloes were hot.

To be fair, the difference between the fourth seed and the fifth seed isn’t massive this season. As noted above, Oregon State finished in last place in the conference. The Beavers posted a 3-27 record with home wins against Portland State, Nicholls and Utah. They haven’t won a game since December. Simply put, the Beavers are not the same threat to make a Cinderella run that they were last year.

Oregon State is easily the worst defensive team in the conference. It’s given up nearly 82 points per game in conference play. The second-worst mark in the league is 74.2. Opposing shooters are hitting 49.2 percent of their field goals (worst in the league) and 37.2% of their 3-pointers (second-worst).

CU fans, of course, should be cheering for Oregon State to pull through. The Beavers are the more favorable quarterfinal matchup. And if you’re looking to hope there are two bits of information worth circling: first, Oregon has lost five of its last six games, and second, the Beavers have beaten the Ducks in 6 of 11 meetings since the start of the 2017-18 season. There isn’t much chance to believe the Beavers will win—ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 87.4% chance of advancing through the first round—but a massive Oregon implosion in a rivalry game isn’t impossible, especially considering their recent form. Plus, the Beavers were within two points of pulling off the upset in Corvallis in January.

QUARTERFINALS: Likely vs. #5 Oregon

We’re going to assume that Oregon wins. It isn’t a guarantee. It’s actually far from it considering just how bad the Ducks have been recently, with losses of 11 and 20 points in their last two games. But Oregon State’s ability to lose has been basically unmatched in the entire country this year.

So let’s move on to the CU vs. UO matchup.

The real value in the first-round bye is the extra night of rest. While the Ducks need to win four games in four nights to earn the Pac-12 crown, Colorado only needs three consecutive wins. That benefit could backfire early though, as the Ducks will have a chance to get their feet wet in Vegas before the quarterfinal matchup.

The Buffs seem to have found an answer to their slow starts since inserting Julian Hammond as start point guard last weekend, but starting hot in the tournament is as difficult as it is crucial. My vote would be to ditch the 3-point line early, despite the Buffs’ league-leading 36.5% percentage from deep, and instead focus on pressuring the interior of the Oregon defense. At the very least, the Buffs should search for extra opportunities on the glass against one of the weakest rebounding teams in the conference.

Oregon’s calling card is its offense but that offense has dried up over the past few weeks. The Ducks have scored 70 points twice in their past nine games, and one of those was in a 20-point blowout loss. Still, Oregon is more than capable of filling it up if it gets on a role.

Both teams won on the road during the matchups this season, and this one figures to be a toss-up.

SEMIFINALS: Likely vs. #1 Arizona

Colorado’s semifinal matchup would be against one of three teams: #9 Stanford, #8 Arizona State or #1 Arizona.

While Arizona is the heavy favorite to move on, they could get caught looking ahead to the NCAA Tournament, especially considering they already have a No. 1 seed in March Madness locked up. Similar to the Oregon-Oregon State matchup, Arizona’s in-state rivals could have a chance to play spoiler. Unlike Oregon-Oregon State, little brother hasn’t been able to keep a game close this season.

If Colorado takes on Arizona in the semifinals, the odds will be stacked against them. The Wildcats are the second-best team in the country and just about every metric backs that statement up. Yes, the upset win last weekend should give the Buffs some confidence. Now know they can compete. But there’s no doubt the Wildcats will be looking for revenge, and it’s rare for good things to happen when the No. 2 team has put a target on your back.

Arizona’s offense has scored the third-most points per game in the country this season. They’re fifth in field goal percentage and just outside of the top 10 in assist to turnover ratio. The defense is probably the best in the Pac-12, too. Guard Bennedict Mathurin is a finalist for the Wooden Award and will be a lottery pick this June.

If Colorado brings the same effort that they brought against Arizona last time—an energy that carried over through most of the Utah game on Saturday—they’ll have a shot for a repeat. They had five players in double figures last time around and they’ll need a similar effort again; Colorado has a bunch of talented players, but they’re all prone to off nights. Any time that talent comes together on the same night, they’ll have a chance to beat anybody.

Expect Arizona to be very heavy favorites in this game.

FINALS: Likely vs. #2 UCLA or #3 USC

Let’s say the Buffs can pull off two wins in Vegas and earn a trip to the championship… with a trip to March Madness on the line.

They could play any of the six teams from the bottom half of the bracket, but two-seed UCLA and three-seed USC are the safest bets. If you’re looking for a dark horse, Washington State is the sexy pick. They’re sitting at 58th in the current NET Rankings, fourth-best in the Pac-12. However, knocking off USC or UCLA would be the first Quadrant 1 win of the season for the Cougars. Washington could also pull off an upset over a USC team that has lost back-to-back games (against top-notch competition) if the Huskies can get past Utah in the first round.

UCLA is the favorite to come out of the bottom half of the bracket, so it should come as no surprise that this is the team CU would probably like to face the least. They returned every rotation player from last year’s Final Four team and added a five-star recruit. They’ve hovered around the top 10 in the AP Poll all season. They have the best scoring defense in the conference and only Arizona scores more than them. Their assist-to-turnover ratio is sixth in the country and their turnover margin seventh. They’re efficient scoring from every area of the court. They’re top three in the conference in offensive and defensive rebounding.

Simply put, UCLA is a really good basketball team and they could be poised for another deep run in March.

USC, while still a lock to make the NCAA Tournament, is a better matchup for CU. First of all, Colorado had beaten the Trojans seven times in a row before USC took down the Buffs in Boulder in the teams’ only meeting this season.

The Trojans are a big team that can dominate the paint and rebound as well as anyone. They rank near the top of the conference in related stats. Isaiah Mobley is their anchor in the paint but they have plenty of options. Six-foot-nine guard Drew Peterson has been hot behind the arc this season and is the teams leading assister.

The good news for CU is that they were a shot away from overtime against both UCLA and USC when the teams came to Boulder in January. CU is a much better team since that point and could give either team a run for its money in a potential championship matchup.

But UCLA would probably be a 5- to 8-point favorite in the game and USC would probably be a 2.5- to 5-point favorite. Those aren’t ideal numbers, but nobody said winning the Pac-12 would be easy.

Stay tuned to DNVR for updates from Vegas as the tournament gets underway this week.