A Texas-sized upset; analyzing our Week 14 picks

 

Margins we’re ultra thin in the NFL’s Week 14 with ten games ending within a touchdown or less making the betting that much crazier with bettors biting their nails throughout the week’s action.

Our three underdog picks of the week were included in those ten nail-biters, resulting in a disappointing 1-2 outing to take us to 27-25-2 on the year.

Our numbers were varied as YPP did well going 3-2 in differentials of 4 or more points and in games with differentials of 1 point or more the numbers went 7-5-1. Which should have allowed us to do some real damage but EW steered us the wrong way as we stayed home on some plays and those numbers didn’t do as well; going 0-4 on the week in differentials of 2 points or more and even worse with smaller differentials. It wasn’t pretty. When your margins are so slim you’re bound to have weeks like this.

Here’s how it all broke down, with us going through what worked and what didn’t in the NFL’s Week 14.

The Giants pull off the upset 

“With the spread so small we’ll need an outright win by the Giants barring any missed extra points or safeties that’ll skew the final score. We believe enough in this underdog Giants team even when considering that.”

We knew what it would take for the New York Giants to cover in this one and the G-men got it done. At times it seemed as if Eli Manning was trying his best to lose this game – it often seems like Eli’s purposely blowing games – and Odell Beckham Jr. had some heart-wrenching drops. But ultimately Beckham came through with one huge touchdown and that was all the offense needed to cap off a monumental performance by their ‘D’.

Yes, Ezekiel Elliott still managed to run for over 100 yards but New York’s run defense played well, particularly towards the end as the Cowboys kept trying to run but the Giants gave them no room to succeed. This also might have been the first time since Week 1 that Dak Prescott showed his inexperience and some of his limitations. When the game lied solely in his hands as Dallas was down 10-7 with little time left the rookie just didn’t have the chops to make those quick throws to the sideline. It should be said that throughout this game the Giants defensive backs made some big time plays.

The Giants defense was also the first in a while that seemed to put some real pressure on Dak a particularly impressive feat when you consider they were without Jason Pierre-Paul in this game.

YPP had New York as 2 point favorites, almost on the money in a big upset for us as we’re now on a streak picking against the Cowboys.

The Bucs’ D shows us something

We said going in we weren’t convinced of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense who’d been the catalyst for their winning streak coming into this game. The New Orleans Saints offense, we thought, would be a different test, a true test for this young Bucs unit.

So with a 16-11 win in which they forced three Drew Brees interceptions, they deserve their props and showed us something. A team that was very high in YPP during the course of last season, the Bucs are on a roll having won five in a row and looking like true playoff contenders not to mention potential divisional winners.

We anticipated much more of a shootout in this game but Tampa’s defense made sure that wasn’t the case holding New Orleans out of the end zone and keeping them to three field goals – with the Black and Gold also forcing a safety. The Saints defense kept them in this game throughout but Brees and the offense never could get over the hump to score a touchdown and take the lead.

Tampa Bay’s offense did not look good, but in a crucial home win to keep them atop the NFC South standings – tied with the Atlanta Falcons – they were impressive, showing us we need to start taking them much more seriously.

The Bills aren’t who EW thinks they are

The Bills have been a highly projected team in EW for a large part of the year and this was a monumental game for their season. At home, with Rex Ryan firing rumors swirling, and Tyrod Taylor at risk of getting benched Buffalo had everything on the line here – not to mention their dying playoff hopes. Though the score was close, the Bills simply didn’t have enough against a Pittsburgh Steelers team that’s rounding into form – here’s to us hoping the numbers quickly adjust.

The weather was bad in classic upstate New York fashion which you’d imagine would have helped us since the Pittsburg Steelers are the more gifted offensive team on paper. But the weather didn’t matter in stopping Pitt’s offense so much as just changed who would star in the game. Instead of Antonio Brown and Big Ben, Steelers star running back Le’Veon Bell was the focus of this contest absolutely abusing the Bills defense beyond anything we anticipated. Bell ended up with 236 yards on 38 carries for three touchdowns, a tally that Buffalo’s typically good run game couldn’t come close to matching.

Despite the disappointing output from the Bills ground defense Buffalo stayed kept the score relatively close thanks to three forced interceptions on Roethlisberger. A maddening thing that’ll skew our numbers as the Steelers keep on allowing games to get closer than they should, a huge frustration from a betting perspective.

YPP’s other two good calls 

We mentioned that the numbers had contrasting views of the game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Washington Redskins; with YPP preferring the Skins and EW the Eagles. We also said that the eye test would suggest Washington given how the Birds have been in a free fall recently, but we didn’t make a pick with the numbers diverging so much. One way or another one set of data was going to win out and it was YPP. With EW had humming  before this week we would have found it hard to go against that suggested spread.

Another game that YPP liked was the Chicago Bears who kept things very close against the Detroit Lions. The Bears were favored by YPP for a full 9 point differential but they’ve been hard to predict with all the injuries, suspensions, and changes behind center. Against a Detroit team that’s been undervalued by both metrics all season, it was simply an iffy game to pick.

To turn the page on Week 14, as always here’s our early EW preview using the preseason win prices for Week 15, as last week these numbers went 8-and-5 in games with differentials of 1 point or more. Here’s what their suggested spreads are for this upcoming week.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
LAR		7.5				5.5
@SEA	15	10.5	6	3.5	-9.5
MIA	-2.5	7.5
@NYJ		7.5		3	-3	5.5
NE	-3	10.5	3
@DEN		9		3.5	-0.5	3.5
GB	-6.5	10.5	6		-3
@CHI		7.5		3		3.5
JAX		7.5				1
@HOU	-6	8.5	2	3	-5
CLE		4.5
@BUF	-10	8	7	3	-10	0
PHI		7.5				1
@BAL	-6	8.5	2	3	-5
TEN		6
@KC	-5.5	9.5	7	3.5	-10.5	5
DET		7
@NYG	-5	8.5	3	3	-6	1
IND		9.5				1
@MIN	-4	9.5		3	-3
PIT	-3	10.5	2
@CIN		9.5		3	-1	4
NO		7
@AZ	-2.5	10	6	3	-9	6.5
SF		5.5				6.5
@ATL	-13.5	7.5	4	3	-7
OAK	-2.5	8.5	3		Even
@SD		7		3	Even	2.5
TB		7.5				2
@DAL	-7	8.5	2	3	-5
CAR		10.5	6		-3	7.5
@WSH	-4.5	7.5		3