NFL Betting for pros: Introducing our updated numbers using the EW metric

 

Expected Win differential is a metric that we’ve used throughout the year. The beauty of the application is that we take the over/under win totals set by bookmakers as a value, and then apply them to each team on a week-to-week basis. In doing so, the thinking is that we can use Vegas’ long-term evaluations of a team – with the whole summer to give an accurate number- against itself.

In doing so, we can find teams that are being overvalued by one fluky performance or undervalued because of public perception and so on and so forth. Basically, it’s a way to find market inefficiency’s that are plain as day and it worked well early in the year.

Of course, as the season goes past the first quarter we get further and further away from the win total over/under’s being relevant. Which, aside from YPP’s proven success, is why we’ve leaned towards using YPP more as that is based on actual performance on the field thus far.

So with that in mind, there is another way to use expected win totals to our advantage. The beauty of using EW is that you can plug-in a variety of predictive models. One such model is the projected win totals that we get from the Pythagorean theorem, which can also be used to calculate the spread through EW. We introduced this in the preseason as it’s an old Bill James equation that’s been around for years and has a proven track record.

You’ll remember the Pythagorean theorem is applied here by using the points that each team scores minus the points against and that’s what gives us a win total. The accuracy of the win total isn’t so important, what’s important is having another metric based on current performance that can give us values for all teams to matchup against each other. In this way, we can balance out some of the shortcomings with YPP that undervalues teams who are more efficient in the red zone and have higher scoring offenses or more efficient red zone defenses.

Here’s what we found…

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Teams making the biggest jump

We’re going to look at a few different findings with the new win total projections, particularly looking at the teams that have made the biggest jump so far this year. Mind you the actual amount of wins a team has thus far isn’t taken into account at all, this is purely based off of points scored and points allowed.

Also, realize that with every week these numbers will be updated and increase in accuracy. As of now, the sample size is still very small but the results certainly match what we’ve seen on the field.

Team	Expected Wins	2015 Wins	Change
Dallas	11.50138736	4	7.501387362
Philadelphia	12.57363251	7	5.573632514
San Diego	9.0356892	4	5.0356892
Tennessee	7.463335345	3	4.463335345
Buffalo	11.92357032	8	3.923570317
Baltimore	8.163429585	5	3.163429585
Minnesota	13.09855582	11	2.098555824
Atlanta	9.692914139	8	1.692914139
Cleveland	4.147177821	3	1.147177821
Jacksonville	5.880257111	5	0.880257111
New York Giants	6.855078619	6	0.855078619
Detroit	7.812305544	7	0.8123055438
Miami	6.803609594	6	0.803609594
Seattle	10.70690639	10	0.7069063854
Oakland	7.339144822	7	0.3391448219
New Orleans	7.238801312	7	0.2388013119
New England	12.20631534	12	0.206315336
Pittsburgh	10.08180476	10	0.08180475824
San Francisco	4.652740334	5	-0.3472596661
Indianapolis	7.207412142	8	-0.792587858
Washington	8	9	-1
Los Angeles	5.964826408	7	-1.035173592
Chicago	4.878283749	6	-1.121716251
Denver	10.38543975	12	-1.614560249
Tampa Bay	4.373569532	6	-1.626430468
Green Bay	8.083521735	10	-1.916478265
Kansas City	8.627941263	11	-2.372058737
Houston	6.482321018	9	-2.517678982
Arizona	9.979144223	13	-3.020855777
NY Jets	4.538642661	10	-5.461357339
Cincinnati	5.393171095	12	-6.606828905
Carolina	7.158647789	15	-7.841352211

 

The Dallas Cowboys have shown the greatest improvement from 2015, which certainly would apply to how things have played out on the field. The Philadelphia Eagles are big protagonists of these early EW numbers as they have the second most projected wins at 12.5 a huge 5 win improvement from the previous season. Remember, Philly is one of the few teams to have already had their Bye week meaning their sample size is even smaller so take it with a grain of salt.

The San Diego Chargers, Tennessee Titans, and Buffalo Bills are the next three teams to have most significantly improved their stocks. The Chargers despite a losing record are projected to win just over 9 games by EW, while the Titans are projected to improve by over 4 wins on their 2015 campaign at this pace. The Bills might be the most surprising of all teams as their recent run of form has them projected for a 12 win season. We’ll see how that keeps up in the following weeks as we update this.

In the bottom half, we can see three obvious choices given their current records, but it’s not a good sign for those squads that EW is in agreement. The New York Jets, Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers are all bound to be in the bottom half of the NFL and out of the playoff picture at this rate.

Most surprising of all is Carolina who’s fallen from 15 win team and now projected at only 7. There’s time to change your fortunes but things are not looking up for these teams.

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The most wins and losses in 2016 as the projections stand after Week 6

When ranked purely by expected wins we find some more interesting findings. As you can see many of the early season surprises are shown here, with the Minnesota Vikings and the Eagles at the very top. The New England Patriots are now right at the top joined by Buffalo and Dallas, ahead of more expected teams like the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Arizona Cardinals.

Despite some uneven play early on, we see some of the usual contenders like the Seattle, Denver, Pittsburgh, and Arizona around the 10 win mark, right on the heels of Buffalo and the other surprise teams.

It’s worth noting the Washington Redskins have scored the same exact amount of points that they’ve allowed which is why they have an exact number.

Team	Expected Wins
Minnesota	13.09855582
Philadelphia	12.57363251
New England	12.20631534
Buffalo	11.92357032
Dallas	11.50138736
Seattle	10.70690639
Denver	10.38543975
Pittsburgh	10.08180476
Arizona	9.979144223
Atlanta	9.692914139
San Diego	9.0356892
Kansas City	8.627941263
Baltimore	8.163429585
Green Bay	8.083521735
Washington	8
Detroit	7.812305544
Tennessee	7.463335345
Oakland	7.339144822
New Orleans	7.238801312
Indianapolis	7.207412142
Carolina	7.158647789
New York Giants	6.855078619
Miami	6.803609594
Houston	6.482321018
Los Angeles	5.964826408
Jacksonville	5.880257111
Cincinnati	5.393171095
Chicago	4.878283749
San Francisco	4.652740334
NY Jets	4.538642661
Tampa Bay	4.373569532
Cleveland	4.147177821

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Applying these numbers to the Week 7 lines

So when we round the numbers so that everything checks out these are the results for the Week 7 lines. Obviously, you can already find our consensus picks in our Week 7 picks column, meaning those are the games in which this new set of EW numbers is in agreement with YPP.

The one game in which YPP and EW differ a decent amount is the Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins. YPP has proved us right on Miami but EW likes the Bills a lot. You’ll also notice the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football are -11.5 point favorites by the EW suggested spread. Almost a 5 point difference from the actual number.

Here are all the other EW suggested spreads. But please remember to use these responsibly and stick to the Picks of the Week. Stay tuned for more updates as the sample size increases.

Teams	Current Spread	Expected Wins 2016 prices	Advantage	Home Field	Suggested Spread	Difference
CHI		5
@GB	-9.5	8	6	3.5	-9.5	0
NYG	-2.5	7	2
@LAR		6		3	-1	3.5
MIN	-2.5	13	2
@PHI		12		3	-1	3.5
NO		7				0.5
@KC	-7	8.5	3	3.5	-6.5
WSH		8
@DET	-1	8		3	-3	2
CLE		4				3.5
@CIN	-9.5	5.5	3	3	-6
BUF	-2.5	12	10		-7	4.5
@MIA		7		3
OAK		7.5	3		Even	1
@JAX	-1	6		3	Even
SD		9				2.5
@ATL	-6.5	9.5	1	3	-4
TB	-1.5	4.5
@SF		4.5		3	-3	4.5
IND		7
@TEN	-2.5	7.5	1	3	-4	1.5
BAL		8	7		-4	5
@NYJ	-1	4.5		3
NE	-7.5	12	4		-1
@PIT		10		3		6.5
SEA	Even	10.5	1
@AZ	Even	10		3	-2	2
HOU		6.5
@DEN	-7.5	10.5	8	3.5	-11.5	4