A game-by-game breakdown of the Buffs' 2019 football schedule: Part II

Okay.

So outside of the Nebraska game, I’m guessing y’all weren’t too upset with my predictions for the first half of the season. Winning four of the first six is a very good start for the Buffs. With six games remaining, they’d only need one win to match their win total from each of the last two seasons, and two wins to gain bowl eligibility.

For Colorado, that’s some good stuff.

Over the next few seasons, I expect the standards in Boulder to rise with Mel Tucker at the helm of the program. They shouldn’t shoot through the roof overnight though. A bowl appearance in 2019 would make this year’s squad the second-best out of Colorado in the last decade.

And here’s the thing, I’m really high on these Buffs. To be honest, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pac-12 South Championship team of a couple of years ago is the only one more talented than this year’s in that time.

But this second-half schedule is absolutely brutal. Who knows what teams will look like come November, but as of today, on paper, this list is real ugly.

I’m not projecting a 2018-level implosion. In fact, I’m not expecting an implosion at all. The Buffs will still be impressive, improving and, generally, competitive. It won’t be that they’re blowing games and falling apart, they’ll just be coming into every game facing an uphill battle. I wouldn’t be surprised if Vegas spots Colorado a touchdown per game the rest of the way.

Here’s my advice: Take the Buffs against the line, but don’t take them to outscore their opponent.

Now, find an ice cream cone, or a Breck Brew, or some other vice, and let’s rip the band-aid off together.

(If you haven’t checked out Part I, I suggest you read that first before continuing.)

Week 8: Sat., Oct. 19 @ Washington State, TBD

As will be the case most of this season, the story of this Buffs opponent will be its quarterback.

This spring, senior Gage Gubrud transferred from FCS Eastern Washington to fill Gardner Minshew’s shoes at Washington State. That won’t be easy for Gubrud, as Minshew led college football in completions and completion percentage while ranking second in passing yards behind 15th-overall-pick Dwayne Haskins.

Gubrud was a finalist for the FCS MVP award each of the last two seasons and could pick up where Minshew left off in Mike Leach’s offense, but there are plenty of unknowns about Gubrud at the FBS level.

There is some stability though: All four of Washington State’s top receivers will return in 2019. And defensively, the Cougars are fairly consistent throughout all three levels, though with little star power

Washington State’s 11-2 record last season was aided by a remarkably easy road schedule, but I don’t see the Cougars regressing enough to drop this game to the Buffs. Especially after WSU beat CU 31-7 in Boulder last year.

Buffs fall to 4-3.

Week 9: Fri., Oct. 25 vs. USC, 7 p.m.

I don’t think this game is unwinnable for Colorado.

USC has some great pieces, including the only group of receivers I’d take over Colorado’s, but there are enough question marks to leave the door open, especially at Folsom.

The Trojans finished 5-7 last year and JT Daniels didn’t always look like a future star as a true freshman quarterback. His 14 touchdowns to 10 interceptions were solid for the situation, I guess. The new air raid system should help Daniels out, a year of familiarity with his wide receivers. There’s still an outside chance it all blows up, giving the Buffs a window.

But there’s an elephant in the room here.

Colorado has never beaten USC. The two programs have squared 13 times, dating back to their first meeting in 1927, and the Buffs have averaged a 20-point deficit and never come out on top.

Until it happens, I’m not willing to pick Colorado to beat the Trojans.

Buffs fall to 4-4.

Week 10: Sat., Nov. 2 @ UCLA, TBD

Chip Kelly scares me.

I know the Bruins only won three games last year. I know those wins came against some of the weakest opponents in the Pac-12. I know that last year, Kelly’s first coaching UCLA, the offense scored over a touchdown less per game than the year prior.

I still think, eventually, Kelly will pull this program together.

It just won’t be this season.

The Bruins will bring back 19 starters this year, including quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson who won the starting job over Michigan transfer Wilton Speight as a true freshman. UCLA will have had another offseason to acclimate to major scheme changes on both sides of the ball.

But they still seem like they’re at least a year out.

The Buffs may not beat the Bruins 38-16 like they did in Boulder last year, but they’ll get the job done and end a three-game losing streak.

Buffs improve to 5-4.

Week 11: Sat., Nov. 9 vs. Stanford, TBD

Stanford is coming off an insanely easy four-week stretch, especially given how difficult most Pac-12 schedules are from start to finish.

Here’s the Stanford schedule from Week 7-11:

• Bye
• vs. UCLA
• vs. Arizona
• Bye
• @ Colorado

I don’t think Stanford is head and shoulders better than Colorado. The Cardinal bring back junior quarterback KJ Costello, whose name should be in the hat for First-Team All-Pac-12. The rest of the offense is stacked with new faces though.

The only returning skill position player is tight end Colby Parkinson, who was honorable mention All-Pac-12 last season. All three starting wide receivers are out and two were drafted to the NFL. Running back Bryce Love, who could have competed for the Heisman also left for the NFL. Four offensive linemen who started at least seven games last year graduated.

There are some big names climbing the ranks at wide receiver for Stanford, though, including Osiris St. Brown.

Stanford ornerback Paulson Adebo matches up favorably with Laviska Shenault. He’s 6-foot-1 and was named second-team All-American as a sophomore last season. Adebo won’t stop Shenault. Nobody can. But he may be able to slow him down. This is the key matchup. And, just like the Oregon game, this is a great opportunity for Shenault to add to his Heisman resume.

Obviously, every team wants to win games to clinch bowl eligibility, but I think this Buffs squad will be particularly hungry. They’ve lost 10 consecutive games that would have sent the team to the postseason, all in the last two seasons. Mel Tucker will want to end the era of dropping big games, and I believe the team will truly have his back, more than they would under most first-year coaches.

I want to pick the Buffs here. And I did twice. But both times I had to flip the result back in Stanford’s favor. This is just a good, established football program. By this point in the season, I think the young guys in their lineup will step up. I could see the Cardinal falling asleep because of the easy stretch of games before Colorado, but I don’t think head coach David Shaw or Costello will let that happen.

Still, this is a 50-50 game.

But the Buffs fall to 5-4.

And I already regret not taking the upset.

Week 12: Bye

A bye before the toughest home game of the season? That’s what I’m talking about.

Week 13: Sat., Nov. 23 vs. Washington, TBD

The week off gives the Buffs a better chance of taking down the Huskies. So does playing this game at home. Don’t forget, although the Buffs lost 27-13 in Seattle last year, they were only down 17-13 with four minutes to play. Plus, Washington lost some talent on defense, notably in the secondary with Byron Murphy and Taylor headed to the NFL early, which should open things up for KD Nixon and Laviska Shenault.

If you’re looking for a massively surprising upset on the schedule, this is your game.

But it would still be an upset.

• First of all, the Huskies are also coming off a bye. And the week before their bye, they play Oregon State, which, for a team like Washington, is essentially another bye.
• They’re defending Pac-12 champions and were a couple of bounces away from a College Football Playoff case last season. They lost four games, but the largest deficit was only five points.
• Washington is 7-0 against the Buffs in Pac-12 play.

Washington is replacing quarterback Jake Browning with Jacob Eason, who started 13 games at Georgia while Mel Tucker was the defensive coordinator. The Buffs’ best hope is that Tucker has some inside info on how to slow Eason down and that the Husky defense, which only returns two starters, isn’t up to the typical standards at Washington.

I see the Pac-12 as a two-tier conference with a pretty severe gap between the teams competing for the league title and those who aren’t. The Huskies are in Tier 1. The Buffs are in Tier 2. Football is unpredictable, but Washington has a clear advantage, despite the upset potential.

Buffs fall to 5-6.

Week 14: Sat., Nov. 30 @ Utah, TBD

One more chance to gain bowl eligibility.

The Utes knocked the Buffs around last year. Sure, it was after the sky had fallen in Boulder and the team’s spirits were shot, but a win would have clinched bowl eligibility for just the second time in 10 years. There was plenty to play for, especially for head coach Mike McIntyre who was fired after the 30-7 loss.

Utah is the class of the Pac-12. The gap between the Utes and the Ducks or Huskies isn’t big, but it exists. Utah returns its starting quarterback and running back, as well as seven of its top eight receivers from 2018. There are some questions along the offensive line.

The Utes shine on defense. Phil Steele ranked their linebackers 19th in the country, their secondary 12th and their defensive line first.

Utah has never won the Pac-12 but they made it to the Championship Game last year and are the easy favorites to win the South again this season. Maybe they’ll already have the division locked up and the Buffs can catch them sleeping in the last game of the season, but that’s unlikely.

Buffs fall to 5-7.

Final Thoughts

Like I said, this is a brutal schedule. The Buffs have a bowl-caliber team but to get to the postseason with this schedule, they’ll need to win just about every 50-50 game, or a pull an upset somewhere. The Buffs’ most winnable games are frontloaded in this year’s schedule. They’ll have to start hot.

I think the Buffs win five games this season, but I think six is much more likely than four.

Off-the-bat, 5-0 isn’t unrealistic. Maybe unlikely, but Colorado State, Nebraska, Air Force, Arizona State, Arizona is far from a death knell. None are locks either, though.

If they come out 4-1, as I picked, and beat UCLA as a heavy favorite, the Buffs need two wins from somewhere within this group: Oregon, Washington State, USC, Stanford, Washington, Utah.

It’s not impossible, but less than likely.