Predicting every move the Broncos will make between now and training camp | The Ride

Free agency is only one week away.

As we start to prep for what could be a wild couple of weeks in Denver, I made a new mock offseason. (You can see the first one here.)

The salary cap casualties. The trades. The free agent signings. The draft. All of it.

This is a blend of my predictions and what I would do if I was in charge. Some is based on rumors. Some is based on what would make sense given the team’s new direction.

It’s an aggressive take on what could happen over the next few months, but (at least in my opinion) it isn’t unrealistic. After all of the moves below, the Broncos are left with about $8.5 million in remaining cap space. That may be a little low compared to what George Paton has left over in recent years, but considering the number of changes we expect and the standard around the league, it’s a fair guess.

Here’s what I think will happen in Denver this offseason…

Cuts

CB Ronald Darby (saves $9.65 million)

Before his torn ACL, Darby was playing great football for the Broncos. But given his injury history, keeping Darby around is probably a bad bet. Denver may offer him a reduced salary, but I’m moving on. The emergence of Damarri Mathis makes it easier to pull the trigger here.

OL Graham Glasgow (saves $11 million)

Like Darby, keeping Glasgow around on a reduced salary might make sense. He took a pay cut last year and would probably be open to another this time around, although his price may move up after starting 13 games in 2022. I’m moving on to free up space for when the market opens up.

RB Chase Edmonds (saves $5.9 million)

Once again, a pay cut would probably make sense to both sides. And once again, I’m choosing to start fresh.

OLB Jacob Martin (saves $3.8 million)

Martin may be tradable—the Broncos traded a 4th-round pick to get Martin and a 5th in October—but I think a cut is more likely. Martin has value as a two-down outside linebacker and may start for the Broncos if they keep him around, but with so many young players in the room, I’m taking the cap space.

Restructure

S Justin Simmons

This is a simple restructure, which reduces Simmons’ 2023 salary to the veteran minimum and converts the rest to a signing bonus. Simmons gets his money up front and the Broncos get to push $6.6 million of his cap hit to 2024. Everybody wins.

Trades

WR Courtland Sutton and a 5th (#142) to the Bears for a 2nd (#54)

Our first big move.

Rumors around a potential Courtland Sutton trade have been swirling since the season ended, and I’m pulling the trigger. Denver could use an infusion of young talent on rookie contracts, as the big-money cap hits for Russell Wilson are right around the corner. The Broncos can add a talented player with a premium pick and save more than $6 million this year and $17 million in each of the next two years in the process.

A second-round price is steep, but by including the fifth pick of the fifth round, the Broncos convince the Bears to bite. For them, this is a second chance at the Chase Claypool trade and gives them a proven weapon for Justin Fields. The Bears essentially get Sutton on a three-year contract worth $13.5 million per year. That’s a great deal.

Jonathon Cooper to the Rams for a 7th (#226)

As noted above, the Broncos are in a strange place at outside linebacker. They have plenty of young depth but lack high-end players. The Rams, meanwhile, need outside linebacker help and have six picks in the final two rounds of the draft. They’ll gladly take a young player with 14 starts over the past two seasons, and the Broncos might be able to get a better pick than No. 226.

Etc.

Pick up Jerry Jeudy’s fifth-year option

This one isn’t really up for debate. The Broncos can tack on another year to Jeudy’s contract for just under $13 million. That’s a steal.

Free Agency

At this point, the Broncos are pushing $50 million in cap space with two goals in mind:

1. Add talent to the worst scoring offense in the NFL.
2. Patch up any defensive holes with veterans.

All of the contracts below are based on the estimates from Spotrac and PFF. When both provided estimates, I averaged both contracts to create my number. When only one provided an estimate, I used that contract. When neither provided numbers, I guessed.

OG Nate Davis – 4 yrs, $33.8m ($18.5 gtd) | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $20m | Yr 2: $3.6m | Yr 3: $4.6m | Yr 4: $5.6m
CAP — Yr 1: $6.125m | Yr 2: $8.225m | Yr 3: $9.225m | Yr 4: $10.225m

The headliner of the Broncos’ free agent class, Davis is a 26-year-old road-grader at guard who is improving in pass protection. He’s played at least 12 games in all four of his NFL seasons, and PFF has graded him as a top 25 guard in the NFL in each of the past three. Davis slides into Dalton Risner’s spot at left guard.

TE Austin Hooper – 2 yrs, $15.2m ($10m gtd) | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $11m | Yr 2: $4.2m
CAP — Yr 1: $6m | Yr 2: $9.2m

Greg Dulcich was great for the Broncos as a rookie… when he was on the field. Hooper provides insurance for Dulcich and a great second tight end for when the Broncos want to go heavy. Don’t forget, Sean Payton is typically among the league leaders in different personnel groupings per game, and Hooper opens up more possibilities.

Hooper’s receiving stats have dipped over the past two seasons but that’s primarily because of his usage. He was barely on the field for half of the Titans’ snaps last season, despite being healthy. His Pro Bowl days are probably behind him, but Hooper can be a valuable piece of the Broncos’ offense in his age 29 and 30 seasons.

RB Kareem Hunt – 2 yrs, $11m ($6m gtd) | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $7m | Yr 2: $4m
CAP — Yr 1: $4m | Yr 2: $7m

The 27-year-old back has been in and out of the Browns’ rotation over the past couple of years with injuries, but when healthy he’s one of the league’s better receiving backs and can carry the rock between the tackles as well. Hunt provides a solid core piece in the Broncos’s running back rotation with Javonte Williams’ return from a torn ACL and PCL up in the air. If Williams comes back in 2023, he’ll have a great partner.

WR Darius Slayton – 2 yrs, $8.5m ($5.5m gtd) | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $6.5m | Yr 2: $2m
CAP — Yr 1: $3.75m | Yr 2: $4.75m

The 26-year-old speedster has surpassed 700 receiving yards in three of his four NFL seasons. While he won’t be a one-for-one replacement for Courtland Sutton, he can be a worthy third option behind Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy.

LB Alex Singleton – 2 yrs, $8.5m ($5 gtd) | PFF
CASH — Yr 1: $6m | Yr 2: $2.5m
CAP — Yr 1: $3.5m | Yr 2: $5m

Fresh off the best year of his career, I’m locking up Alex Singleton for his age 29 and 30 seasons. A deep free agent class could tempt George Paton and Sean Payton to look in a different direction.

DL DeShawn Williams – 2 yrs, $6m ($3m gtd) | 2.5x previous salary
CASH — Yr 1: $4m | Yr 2: $2m
CAP — Yr 1: $2.5m | Yr 2: $3.5m

While Dre’Mont Jones walks away, I’m keeping Williams around after his 4.5-sack season, the best of his career.

CB Patrick Peterson – 1 yr, $5.7m | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $5.7m 
CAP — Yr 1: $5.7m 

The future Hall-of-Famer is coming off a season in which he played the most snaps of his NFL career and posted his third-best passer rating when targeted. Peterson will turn 33 before the season starts, but his knowledge would be worthwhile for the Broncos’ younger cornerbacks, and there’s a chance he and Patrick Surtain II form the best duo in the league… if Peterson’s legs hold up for another year. A two-year stint under new defensive coordinator Vance Joseph may help the Broncos’ chance of landing Peterson.

RT Cam Fleming – 2 yrs, $5m ($2.75 gtd) | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $3.5m | Yr 2: $1.5m
CAP — Yr 1: $2.125m | Yr 2: $2.875m

Denver’s 30-year-old tackle held his own, despite not joining the team until training camp. He’s probably due for a slight raise after starting 15 games, but he’ll serve as a high-end swing tackle at worst, and could wind up winning the right tackle job.

EDGE Justin Houston – 1 yr, $4.65m | PFF/Spotrac
CASH — Yr 1: $4.65m 
CAP — Yr 1: $4.65m 

Houston is 34 years old, but he’s coming off a 9.5-sack season in Baltimore while working as a situational pass rusher. His 20.1% win rate was the 16th-best among NFL edge rushers and would have finished only behind Randy Gregory for the Broncos. Combined with Gregory, Baron Browning and Nik Bonitto, the Broncos should have a solid group of edge rushers.

OL James Hurst – 1 yr, $3m | Same salary
CASH — Yr 1: $3m 
CAP — Yr 1: $3m

Hurst isn’t a free agent yet, but the Saints are likely to release him before a $2 million roster bonus kicks in later this month. Denver may trade for Hurst, but I think waiting out New Orleans and picking up the 31-year-old at the same salary is more likely.

Hurst grew into a starter during his three years with the Saints, after splitting time between the starting lineup and the bench in Baltimore for six seasons. Almost all of his starts came at left tackle in 2022 as he replaced Terron Armstead, but he also has plenty of experience on the right side and at guard. He provides high-level depth and could compete for the right tackle job.

QB Chase Daniel – 1 yr, $2.2m | $200k raise
CASH — Yr 1: $2.2m 
CAP — Yr 1: $2.2m

The Broncos bring in a 15-year NFL veteran who spent five seasons as a backup for Sean Payton in New Orleans.

S Kareem Jackson – 1 yr, $2m | PFF
CASH — Yr 1: $2m 
CAP — Yr 1: $2m 

Some bigger names are available, but the Broncos choose to retain Jackson on a $2 million for a second consecutive season. He provides insurance behind Caden Sterns.

FB Andrew Beck – 1 yr, $1.3m | $50k raise
CASH — Yr 1: $1.3m
CAP — Yr 1: $1.3m

RB Latavius Murray – 1 yr, $1.25m | $130k raise
CASH — Yr 1: $1.25m
CAP — Yr 1: $1.25m

In his age-32 season, Murray proved to be a capable NFL back. Now he’ll bridge the gap between Payton and the Broncos’ locker room, and hopefully provide another productive season.

S PJ Locke – 1 yr, $965k | RFA
CASH — Yr 1: $965k
CAP — Yr 1: $965k

CB Essang Bassey – 1 yr, $965k | RFA
CASH — Yr 1: $965k
CAP — Yr 1: $965k

LB Jonas Griffith – 1 yr, $925k | RFA
CASH — Yr 1: $925k
CAP — Yr 1: $925k

OLB Jonathan Kongbo – 1 yr, $887k | RFA
CASH — Yr 1: $887k
CAP — Yr 1: $887k

P Corliss Waitman – 1 yr, $865k | RFA
CASH — Yr 1: $865k
CAP — Yr 1: $865k

The Draft

Real quick, it’s time for another trade…

The Broncos are packaging their top two picks—No. 54 and No. 68—to move up. Depending on the draft value chart you use, these picks will land them somewhere between 30 and 35. I’m splitting the difference and taking the Steelers’ pick at 33.

Rd 2, Pick 1: OT Darnell Wright, Tennessee

You could hope for a few different tackles to drop to this point, but I’m rolling with the 6-foot-6, 335-pound 21-year-old.

Before the combine, Wright was seen as a mountain of a man who was among the strongest tackles in this year’s draft. Daniel Jeremiah called him a “plug-and-play” right tackle because of his SEC experience. Questions lingered about his athleticism, but he’s cut some weight this offseason and his athletic testing was among the best of the bunch in Indy.

As of now, Wright is projected to land all over the place. The Draft Network has him as the No. 55 prospect. Many mock drafts have him going in the first round. I’ll say he slips, but if he doesn’t I’d take the tackle who does.

Rd 3, Pick 5: IOL Steve Avila, TCU

Like Wright, Avila is a monstrous human. He’s 6-foot-4 and 334 pounds, with a season of starting experience at center and a season at guard. A right side of the line that features Avila at center, Quinn Meinerz at right guard and Darnell Wright at right tackle could turn out to be one of the most violent in the NFL in a few years.

The plan for the 23-year-old would be to let him compete with Lloyd Cushenberry for the starting center job. He might not be ready, but in that case he would be the primary backup for all three interior offensive line positions.

Rd 4, Pick 6: RB Devon Achane, Texas A&M

Whether Achane will slip to the draft’s third day is up for debate, but if he does the Broncos should jump at the opportunity to add him. At 5-foot-8 and 188 pounds, Achane’s size is a concern, but his 4.32 time in the 40-yard dash makes up for it. Achane is one of the best receiving backs in a deep class and could be a perfect fit for a Sean Payton offense.

Rd 6, Pick 17: TE Will Mallory, Miami

Fresh off a 4.54-second 40-yard dash, which led all tight ends, Mallory is starting to gain steam as a draft prospect. He’s nothing special as a blocker and his receiving skills need refining, but he has the tools to grow in both areas. Mallory played for the American Team at the Senior Bowl, where new Broncos tight ends coach Declan Doyle was his position coach.

Rd 7, Pick 6: WR Justin Shorter, Florida

Shorter is a big-bodied receiver at 6-foot-4 and 225 pounds, who could be a special teams stud if he can’t carve out a role in the offense. His 4.55-second time in the 40-yard dash is nothing special, but if he can win jump balls at the same rate he did in college and continue to box out defenders underneath, he could flourish in the NFL. New Broncos receivers coach Keary Colbert was Shorter’s receivers coach at Florida last season.

The Roster

Offense

QB: Russell Wilson, Chase Daniel, Jarrett Guarantano

Russell Wilson is the guy for 2023. Bringing in Jameis Winston or a rookie or some other Plan B could make sense, but using those assets to give Wilson a better chance to succeed is a better plan.

RB: Kareem Hunt, Latavius Murray, Devon Achane, Tyler Badie, Damarea Crockett, Tyreik McAllister, Javonte Williams

A trio of Kareem Hunt, Latavius Murray and Devon Achane should be enough to get the Broncos through the first half of the season before Javonte Williams returns. Tyler Badie will probably hold down a roster spot until Williams is ready for his comeback.

FB: Andrew Beck

TE: Austin Hooper, Greg Dulcich, Albert Okwuegbunam, Will Mallory, Hunter Thedford

Dulcich is probably the starter at tight end, but he’ll have to beat out Hooper fair and square. Regardless, that duo could be one of the strengths of the offense if all goes well. Mallory and Albert O can compete for a roster spot. Bringing back Eric Saubert to join the competition wouldn’t hurt.

WR: Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, Darius Slayton, KJ Hamler, Kendall Hinton, Montrell Washington, Justin Shorter, Freddie Swain, Brandon Johnson, Jalen Virgil, Victor Bolden

Losing Courtland Sutton could sting, but the depth in this group is solid enough to withstand this season. Spending an early draft pick in 2024 on a receiver is a major possibility.

OT: Garett Bolles, Darnell Wright, Cam Fleming, James Hurst, Isaiah Prince, Casey Tucker, Christian DiLauro, Parker Ferguson

With Fleming and Hurst in tow, the Broncos’ depth at tackle might be the best in the NFL. If all goes well, that won’t matter.

OG: Quinn Meinerz, Nate Davis, Quinn Bailey, Will Sherman

Meinerz and Davis are the undisputed starters, but James Hurst or Steve Avila will probably be their primary backup.

C: Lloyd Cushenberry, Steve Avila, Luke Wattenberg

Can Avila beat out Cushenberry in his first training camp… maybe. There’s a chance. And the Broncos might have a quick trigger to make a change.

Defense

DL: D.J. Jones, DeShawn Williams, Mike Purcell, Jonathan Harris, Matt Henningsen, Eyioma Uwazarike, Elijah Garcia, Jordan Jackson

This group will need production from Henningsen and Uwazarike in their sophomore seasons. If they don’t step up, the Broncos may be playing the waiver wire game during the season.

OLB: Randy Gregory, Baron Browning, Justin Houston, Nik Bonitto, Aaron Patrick, Jonathan Kongbo, Chris Allen, Wyatt Ray

This group is filled with question marks. Can Gregory stay healthy? Is Browning a worthy starter? Does Houston have another good season in him? Can Bonitto bounce back from a disappointing rookie season? The good news is that the back half of this group is filled with talent.

ILB: Josey Jewell, Alex Singleton, Jonas Griffith, Justin Strnad

A couple more camp bodies will be needed, but the Broncos have a solid rotation of linebackers.

CB: Patrick Surtain, Patrick Peterson, Damarri Mathis, K’Waun Williams, Essang Bassey, Lamar Jackson, JaQuan McMillian, Faion Hicks, Delonte Hood

The sky is the limit for the Broncos’ cornerbacks. Vance Joseph can play as much man coverage as his heart desires.

S: Justin Simmons, Caden Sterns, Kareem Jackson, PJ Locke, Dellarin Turner-Yell, Devon Key, Ray Wilborn

Caden Sterns gets his chance, and Jackson and Locke combine to make a great backup plan.

Special Teams

K: Brandon McManus

P: Corliss Waitman

The Broncos will probably bring in some camp competition at the very least. Some college punter who could give Waitman a run for his money.

LS: Mitchell Fraboni

2024

After all of this, the Broncos figure to have more than $10 million in cap space plus whatever goes unused in 2023 available in 2024, which should be another $5 million or more. It’s easy to see the Broncos rolling into the offseason with $20 million in space before making any moves. That’s a great situation to be in, considering the league average is about $5 million in space.

Additionally, the Broncos could move on from any of the following players (either by cutting them or trading them) to create more…

• Garett Bolles – $16m
• Justin Simmons – $14.5m
• Jerry Jeudy – $12.99m (trade only)
• Tim Patrick – $10.75m
• Randy Gregory – $10.1m
• D.J. Jones – $10m
• Austin Hooper – $4.2m
• Kareem Hunt – $4m
• Brandon McManus – $3.95m
• Alex Singleton – $2.5m
• Darius Slayton – $2m
• DeShawn Williams – $2m
• Javonte Williams – $1.87m
• Cam Fleming – $1.5m
• Baron Browning – $1.31m
• Quinn Meinerz – $1.31m
• Nik Bonitto – $883k

They’ll have to use the available cap space if they want to retain any of the following free agents:

• Patrick Peterson
• Josey Jewell
• Mike Purcell
• K’Waun Williams
• K.J. Hamler
• Lloyd Cushenberry
• Justin Houston
• James Hurst
• PJ Locke
• Essang Bassey
• Albert Okwuegbunam
• Latavius Murray
• Jonathan Harris
• Kendall Hinton
• Andrew Beck
• Chase Daniel
• Corliss Waitman
• Jonathan Kongbo
• Freddie Swain
• Justin Strnad
• Aaron Patrick