Who Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos should root for in Week 17 in the NFL

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — The Broncos, technically, are still alive for a playoff berth.

While a win over the Patriots last week would have drastically improved their chances of making the postseason, the Broncos still have several paths to the playoffs. They’ll need help to achieve any of them, but the number of options is about as encouraging as possible for a 7-8 team.

There are two playoff spots the Broncos could take: the AFC West champion spot, or a Wild Card spot.

The scenario in which the Broncos win the AFC West is simple.

a. Denver wins its final two games.
b. Kansas City loses its final two games.

That’s it.

For the Wild Card spot, the path is a little more convoluted.

Essentially, the Broncos need any three of the following four things to happen:

a. The Bills lose out.
b. The Steelers lose out.
c. The Bengals lose at least one game.
d. The Jaguars finish second in AFC South, and they lose their Week 18 game against the Titans.

The New York Times playoff predictor suggests there’s about a one-in-five chance the Broncos will get the help they need to make the playoffs. (It also suggests there’s only a one-in-four chance Denver handles its part of the equation, bringing their overall odds to about one-in-twenty.) The Wild Card path, according to the NYT calculations, is more likely than the Broncos winning the AFC West.

Here’s what you should root for in Week 17, if you want to see the Broncos end their seven-year playoff drought…

No. 1 – Broncos win vs. Chargers

If the Broncos lose, they’re eliminated. It’s that simple.

No. 2 – Steelers lose @ Seahawks

Two teams can lock themselves in front of the Broncos with a win in either of the final two weeks; the Steelers and the Bills.

Both teams will be heavy underdogs in Week 18 (the Steelers will hit the road to take on the Ravens, and the Bills will have a road contest against the Dolphins). If one of these teams goes 0-2 down the stretch, the Broncos will have a decent shot at a Wild Card spot. If both teams go 0-2, Denver’s odds of getting in will skyrocket.

The Steelers are on the road in both of their games. The Seahawks are favored against them this week, and the Ravens should be favored against them next week.

No. 3 – Bills lose vs. Patriots

As noted above, the Steelers and Bills are the two teams that the Broncos simply need to lose to have a chance at the Wild Card. If both win, the Broncos are eliminated. If either one doesn’t win either of their last two games, the Broncos will have a path to the Wild Card.

No. 4 – Chiefs lose vs. Bengals

If the Chiefs lose this week, the AFC West will come down to the final weekend. And if the Raiders win this week, the Bronco-Raider showdown in Vegas could be for the AFC West crown.

The Broncos need the Chiefs to lose twice to have a shot at winning the division, but if the Chiefs’ implosion down the stretch has taught us anything, it’s that they’re more than capable of blowing two more games.

There’s a caveat with this game, though. The Broncos will have the tiebreaker over the Bengals, so if Cincinnati loses one of their final two games, Denver will jump them with a pair of wins. So, even if the Chiefs win this week, there will be a major silver lining.

No. 5 – Colts, Jags, Texans all have the same result

The AFC South’s impacts on the Broncos’ playoff chances are not as clear as the scenarios above. Essentially, the Broncos want the Jags to finish second in the division, because the Broncos would have the tiebreaker over them… if they lose in Tennessee in Week 18… but that’s a problem for next week.

The Colts, Jaguars and Texans are all 8-7. If all three lose this week, the Broncos will be in great shape. All three winning is nearly as good. Any mixed results make the Broncos’ path a little trickier.

The doomsday scenario is this: Houston wins, Indianapolis wins and Jacksonville loses. That would ensure the Broncos can’t surpass the second-place finisher in the AFC South. In that case, a Buffalo or Pittsburgh win would leave the Broncos without a path to a Wild Card spot after Week 17.

If you want to get into the nitty-gritty, here’s what the scenarios look like for the Broncos to hold Wild Card position over the AFC South, depending on which teams win this week (remember the Broncos would still need to get in front of either the Steelers or Bills, and hold off the Bengals)…

Week 17 AFC South Winners (other than the Titans)	Week 18 Needs for the Broncos to hold position over AFC South No. 2
None	Tennesse beats Jacksonville OR Jacksonville beats Tennessee; Houston ties Indianapolis
All	Tennessee beats Jacksonville; Houston doesn’t tie Indianapolis
Colts only	Indianapolis beats or ties Houston; Tennessee beats or ties Jacksonville
Colts and Jags	Indianapolis beats or ties Houston; Tennessee beats Jacksonville
Texans only	Houston beats or ties Indianapolis; Tennessee beats or ties Jacksonville
Texans and Jags	Houston beats Indianapolis; Tennessee beats or ties Jacksonville
Jags only	Houston ties Indianapolis; Tennessee beats or ties Jacksonville
Colts and Texans	Irrelevant; AFC South second-place finisher is guaranteed a better position than the Broncos