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Central Division Offseason Roundup: Dallas Stars

August 12, 2015

Our series of Central Division analysis comes to a close with the Dallas Stars, who have had one of the busiest summers of 2015. Like the Avalanche, the Stars made the playoffs in 2013-14, then just missed out the following season. A late season injury to star forward Tyler Seguin certainly didn’t help, but most often criticized was the Stars’ defense and goaltending. How have their changes stacked up compared to the rest of the Division?

Biggest moves so far:

Signed D Johnny Oduya for 2 years.
Signed D Jamie Oleksiak for 1 year.
Signed F Patrick Eaves for 1 year.
Signed LW Curtis McKenzie for 2 years.
Acquired G Antti Niemi from San Jose and extended for 3 years.
Acquired LW Patrick Sharp from Chicago.
Acquired D Stephen Johns from Chicago.
Extended D Patrik Nemeth for 2 years.
Extended D Jyrki Jokipakka for 2 years.
Extended D John Klingberg for 7 years.
Lost D Trevor Daley to Chicago.
Lost F Ryan Garbutt to Chicago.

A full list of the team’s signings including their AHL roster can be found on the Dallas Stars official website.

The Stars have made a LOT of moves this offseason. What stands out to you, BSN staff?

AJ: Honestly, what stands out is the hilarity of GM Jesus Jim Nill strengthening the top 6 of the Stars, clearly their last need ever, and then doubling down on the platoon system by deciding acquiring a second barely-starter-level goalie was a good idea. When most teams are spending ~$7 million on goaltenders, WHY NOT spend a bazillion dollars and show those pundits they don’t know anything?

Really, though. Getting rid of Trevor Daley for actual pylons would’ve been an upgrade defensively so that they got a real living, breathing human being in exchange was good work. It wasn’t GM OF THE SUMMER material so much of the mainstream media wants to portray him as but whatever. Nill is a media darling for some reason. Enjoy 10th place in the West, suckers.

Johnny Oduya will solve everything! Somehow, Francois Beauchemin was a huge risk but Oduya was a slam dunk signing. Just kidding. People who believe that are idiots. They’ll have similar impacts on their teams this year. Nice.

Andi: AJ hit most of the points, but it still seems strange to me that the Stars did so little to upgrade their defense. Yes, swapping Daley for Oduya is probably an upgrade (even though it will be interesting to see how the 33-year-old Oduya does away from the well-oiled machine that is Chicago’s system), but it looks like the team is still going into next season relying on a sophomore John Klingberg to play nasty minutes and having Jordie Benn in their top 4.

The elder Benn is essentially a slightly better Nate Guenin, so the fact that no one was brought in to bump him down the lineup is a big red flag. Dallas does have a good crop of defensive prospects, with Patrik Nemeth, Jamie Oleksiak, and Jyrki Jokipakka leading the way, but relying on them to help bail out the blueline would have been like the Avs handing Bigras the keys.

It’s not a good situation, especially with the young 22-year-old Klingberg facing the possibility of a sophomore slump on their top pairing. For all the hype the Stars have gotten, they came into the summer with defensive question marks, and they’re leaving with them still intact.

Their forward power was never the issue – they employ the reigning Art Ross Trophy winner for heaven’s sakes – but as the Avs have illustrated, good forwards can’t do too much if their defensive counterparts can’t get them the puck. Instead of addressing the real issue, Dallas chose to double down on the other two positions in an effort to make up for a blueline that bleeds goals. It’s an… interesting strategy, but color me unconvinced that it’s enough to get them back into the Central’s playoff picture.

Casey: I think the Stars performed addition by subtraction as far as removing Daley from the roster. I’m ambivalent on the Oduya signing. He’s a free agent the Avs were rumored to have a lot of interest in, but I didn’t see him as the solution to Colorado’s defensive issues. By extension, I suppose that means I don’t see him as a magic bullet for the Stars either. The Stars’ defense is an intriguing one because they, like the Avalanche, have a few key young talents in the pipeline that could make or break their blueline in the future depending on how things shake up.

Extending Klingberg by seven years is an interesting movie, especially considering last year was his rookie season. However, I think they were smart to lock him down before Benn and Seguin are due for extensions (and massive raises). There’s always a risk, however minute, that a rookie’s phenomenal first season was an aberration. The Stars better hope that doesn’t happen to the sophomore defender, especially considering he’s going to be chewing through minutes for them.

Are the Stars a better team now than they were last season?

AJ: Totally. Just ask Puck Daddy. Or ESPN. Or anyone else who covers the NHL as a whole. They’ll tell you all about Dallas the up-and-coming team of the future to watch out for and how they’re so0o0o0o dangerous and stuff. They are definitely better than last season, though.

Sharp, Niemi, Oduya, and Not Daley will all make the team better…this year. I’m not sold it helps them long-term but apparently we’re rewarding teams only for upgrading their teams RIGHT NOW so Dallas is definitely in contention for another Summer Championship. They should make like Minnesota and raise a banner for all these Jim Nill GM Genius banners they’re winning every summer.

Andi: I think the team is slightly better, but as mentioned above, I don’t think they did enough to address the real issue with their team. In the insanely tight Central, details matter, and the only other non-playoff team did far more to improve their blueline weaknesses than Dallas did. Snagging Sharp was a neat trick, but doubling down on two positions and largely ignoring the third isn’t going to be a long-term winning strategy in this division.

Casey: I think they are better but I think there’s still a question mark hanging over their ability to keep scores low.

The Stars in the last couple years have only been as good as their top goal producers have been because they were bleeding goals like stuck pigs. It’s not rocket surgery to say if they allow fewer goals overall, they’ll win more games. That’s sorta the point of the whole game. But I am not sure anything they’ve done this offseason has really accomplished that.

Jokipakka, Klingberg, and Nemeth are a core of young defenders that are likely to improve a great deal, but I am not sure relying on three young defensemen all at once is a wise move. Oduya, Jordie Benn, Goligoski, and Demers are supposed to be the core of veterans here and that is a pretty mediocre combo. What if Jokipakka and Nemeth don’t start to really shine until Oduya and Goligoski are 32 and 34? The Stars seem to be gambling that their young guns will be ready before their old guns slow down. This strategy did not work for the Avalanche in the past.

I never believed that the Stars’ defense was as much of an atrocious tire fire as some said it was last year, at least after the first few months of the season. They made a few key moves during the season itself that saw them improve and their possession numbers back that up. But I do think their defense is decidedly average and when their goaltending might only be average as well, that could still be a problem.

How do you think these moves will impact the Stars when they play the Avs?

AJ: I guess because I said above that they got better that means they’ll be harder to play against. Whatever. Colorado got better too, making it harder for Dallas so maybe it’s a push. Either way, these games are going to be up-and-down the ice affairs built around ridiculous offense talent, a dearth of defense in general, and whichever version of goaltending tends to show up.

Andi: Apart from Sharp’s almost assured hat trick (as is tradition), the Stars and the Avs play a very similar game. There will be many goals from both sides as elite offensives victimize mediocre bluelines. Even so, I think the Avs still have a very clear edge in the goaltending department, especially when Varlamov is on the ice. I’d also give the Avs a slight edge in the defensive department if Beauchemin and Zadorov work out as hoped.

Two points is all that separated the teams in the final standings last year, which is also the number of points the Avs gave up to the Stars due to OTLs. Have the Avs improved enough to win those types of games in regulation? Despite Dallas’s flashier moves, I would argue that yes, the rate at which the Avs have improved this summer is slightly greater than the rate for the Stars. Colorado might not sweep the season series again, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they leapfrogged the Stars in the final standings next year.

Casey: I think the Avs’ moves this offseason have given them the defensive edge on the Stars. The Avs’ goaltending has an edge on the Stars. As long as the Avs can keep Dallas from scoring seven goals a game, they will win against the Stars.

Of course, the same goes for Dallas. Ha. The two teams are similar in a lot of ways.

Final thoughts:

AJ: Jim Nill is overrated, Oduya is overrated, the Stars’ summer is overrated. I’m unimpressed. They got better but older so their “better” might just be temporary. Their defense still sucks and their goaltending is a complete mystery. Both Niemi and Kari Lehtonen could be spectacular or Reto Berra-esque on any given night. Dallas basically watched the YouTube video for “YOLO” by The Lonely Island all summer and said “let’s apply this to hockey.” Cool story, Stars. Sucks to suck.

Casey: That concludes our series of Central Division roundups. Below see the teams you may have missed!