Central Division Offseason Roundup: Minnesota Wild

 

Today our analysis of the NHL Central Division’s offseason movements focuses on the Minnesota Wild. After covering the Nashville Predators’ changes and the St. Louis Blues’ offseason moves, we look at Colorado’s budding rivalry.

Relying on a shutdown defense quarterbacked by Ryan Suter and an emphasis on competent, possession-heavy play, the Wild have been a solid team for the last few seasons. However, in spite of their regular season performance and their confidence in their systems, the team has yet to make it past a Western Conference semifinal.

The breakout performance of goaltender Devan Dubnyk was one of the most talked about storylines of the 2014-15 season, and Dubnyk’s extension is undoubtedly the biggest move the Wild have made so far this summer. Here, the BSN staff break down the rest:

Biggest moves so far:

• Extended D Christian Folin by 2 years.
• Extended G Devan Dubnyk by 6 years.
• Extended C Mikael Granlund by 2 years.
• Extended C Ryan Carter by 1 year.
• Extended D Nate Prosser by 2 years.
• Lost C Kyle Brodziak to St Louis.
• Lost RW Chris Stewart to Anaheim.
• Lost G Josh Harding to retirement due to MS complications.
• Lost LW Sean Bergenheim to FA, considered a playoff rental anyhow.
• Likely to lose D Keith Ballard to retirement, concussion.
• Likely to lose D Jordan Leopold to FA.
• Acquired D Mike Reilly after he decided not to renew with Columbus.
• Awaiting arbitration with C Erik Haula.

First and foremost, what do you think about that Dubnyk extension, BSN staff?

Andi: It’s, um, certainly something. Minnesota’s had goaltending struggles for years, and with their defense, it’s possible that even a statistically-average starting goalie could allow them to succeed. By all accounts, Dubnyk fits that bill.  I have a very hard time believing that he’s the .930 goalie he showed for 39 games last year, but considering the recent lackluster performances of both Backstrom and Kuemper, Dubnyk’s .914 career average (mostly behind bad teams) should be an improvement.

The money isn’t awful – $4.33 million puts him 21st among NHL goaltending salaries next year – but 6 years is a long time to commit to a moderately replaceable goalie.  He’s also never played more that a 47 game season with a single team, so there is some question of how well he’ll handle starting duties.

He might solve Minny’s goaltending woes, and the 25-year-old Kuemper might still round into starting goalie form as a plan B, but there’s also the very real possibility that the Wild just got suckered on fool’s gold and made their goaltending drama even worse.

AJ: I think Dubnyk gets drilled a bit unfairly because he was playing behind horrific Edmonton teams so his career numbers aren’t very good and everyone was rightfully unsurprised when his save percentage went from .936 to .908 when the playoffs began.

Still, Minnesota is a decent possession team with some interesting young players and they’ve lacked any semblance of stability at the starting goaltender position for several years now so at least the extension ends the revolving door for the time being. The money isn’t a big deal but the term could be troublesome. Still, he’s a talented guy who was the clear-cut best option for Minnesota and General Manager Chuck Fletcher did yet another good job limiting the cost of a player at a prime position.

Casey: Minnesota is a defensively sound team with decent possession that performs just fine when backed by average goaltending. They will make the playoffs with average goaltending. Provided he doesn’t suffer a major drop-off in performance, Dubnyk is capable of providing average goaltending. Sometimes he provides even better. But he doesn’t need to be a superstar for Minnesota to succeed.

His standout performance last season may have been an aberration, but even if it was, the team will be just fine provided he can be middle-of-the-pack.

And how about the rest? The Wild have had a quiet summer so far.

Andi: It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with Haula.  The Wild currently have under $3 million in cap space, so if he is ruled deserving of a payday similar to Charlie Coyle (5-year, $3.2 million AAV) or Mikael Granlund (2-year, $3 million AAV), the team has very little wiggle room.

Beyond that, Mike Reilly should be a good add if the hype is to be believed, and the Wild didn’t lose anyone critical.  However, dropping Stewart, Bergenheim, Brodziak, and Cooke off the roster in favor of young, cheap forwards with no NHL experience probably isn’t going to do them too many favors on the ice.

AJ: I’m not sure why Brodziak fell out of favor in Minnesota but I think he’s a talented player who could’ve helped their bottom 6. Basically all of their forwards who departed would have been helpful bottom 6 players but instead they’re running out a smorgasbord of young and old players who don’t look like any kind of an upgrade to my eye.

Their big guns are one year older and leading scorers Zach Parise (31 next week), Jason Pominville (32), Thomas Vanek (31), Mikko Koivu (32) are all rapidly approaching the point where their contracts and declining production fail to justify being as highly paid as they are. On the upside, Vanek is a free agent in the summer of 2017!

Casey: Brodziak and Haula both had periods when they were in Mike Yeo’s doghouse, but unlike Brodziak, Haula is discussed as a likely re-sign. The Wild have retained a core of players that were effective for them in the last couple regular seasons, and though AJ is right to note they are another year older, I am not anticipating a huge dropoff in production from any of Parise, Pominville, Vanek, or Koivu. Yet.

Are the Minnesota Wild a better team than they were last year?

Andi:  I think that depends on two factors. One is Dubnyk – can he prove to be an acceptable starting goaltender? – and the other is whether or not young forwards like Granlund, Niederreiter, Coyle, and Haula can step up and start taking over the team. Parise, Koivu, Vanek, and Pominville are all on the wrong side of 30, so if their play starts going down before the next generation steps up, the Wild are in big trouble. Minnesota’s been sacrificing quite a few draft picks for rental players of late, which means fewer prospects filling in behind and fewer future tradeable assets.  Add in very little cap room and long term contracts, and there’s not much relief in sight if they do cross the brink.

It may not happen next year, but it’s a timebomb waiting to happen, and the moves made this summer did very little to defuse it. In the immediate future, the Wild are still probably a first- or second-round playoff team, but playoff rentals are going to be harder to swing cap-wise now. If they’re lucky, their season should break about even, maybe a little better. If they’re not, well, the Central is no cakewalk and the bottom teams in Dallas and Colorado both improved this year.

AJ: I’m not sure how you can say they’re any better or worse. Their star forwards, as noted above, are in their 30’s and their only other 20-goal scorers last season were Nino Niederreiter and Jason Zucker, who had shooting percentages of 16.1% and 16.9%, respectively. To say those percentages are unlikely to be repeated is extremely fair. Still, both of them plus Mikael Granlund and Charlie Coyle are highly skilled forwards under 25 years old who could legitimately break out anytime now. If they do and provide the complementary production the Wild have badly needed basically since their inception, they could take a big step forward.

Defensively, Ryan Suter’s gross overuse needs to be stopped, especially his role atop their power play units, and the maturation of Matthew Dumba and the addition of Mike Reilly should ease the offensive burden on Suter’s shoulders. They have an awful lot of talent, both young and old, but they still have an enormous number of “what if” questions surrounding so much of their roster that it’s hard to believe they’ve made almost no progress since they became Free Agency Champions when Parise and Suter chose to sign together in Minnesota a couple summers ago.

I think they’re similar to Nashville in that they could win the division or finish in last place and neither result would be a major surprise to me.

Casey: I can’t believe I am saying this but the Wild are kind of a wild card to me. For the reasons AJ mentioned above, there are a lot of question marks hovering over their roster. Will Dumba and Reilly be competent enough to shoulder Suter’s burden? Will Granlund or Coyle have a breakout season? Will Zucker and Neiderreiter regress? Will Dubnyk continue to steal games for the team or will he be simply average?

On paper, the Wild aren’t any better or worse than last year to me.

How will the Wild’s moves affect their matchup against the Avalanche in 2015-16?

Andi:  As I said above, it’s hard to know if Minnesota is a better or worse team until their goaltending and youth questions begin to be answered.  Colorado is a better team on paper, but given their recent struggles against the Wild, the matchup probably depends more on the Avs’ level of concentration than on the players themselves.

AJ: It’s a war of attrition when you play against the Wild and Mike Yeo’s complex forecheck-heavy system. You’re guaranteed to have a limited number of opportunities and need to make sure you capitalize on the few chances the Wild give you. Colorado’s depth, at least right now while most everyone is still healthy, is significantly improved and I think Minnesota’s depth has taken a bit of a step backwards this summer.

It’s not sexy but I think the teams’ forward corps are very close in overall talent level and while Colorado is still significantly far behind defensively, that gap is also closing. In net, Colorado has a clear-cut advantage as Semyon Varlamov has proven himself the last two seasons to be a legit top-10 goaltender and Devan Dubnyk is a guy traded for peanuts last season. Minnesota is still a better possession team and has fewer parts that need to gel and adjust to new surroundings but I think this is going to be a fun series to follow this year, especially given the rise of vitriol spewed back and forth by the fan bases.

Casey: There are reasons why the Wild have fared well against the Avalanche in recent seasons, and they have nothing to do with “compete level” or “wanting it more.” The Wild are a tight possession team who stick to proven systems to minimise opportunities for the opposition. They have effectively stifled the Avs on breakouts and nullified the advantage of speed that the Avalanche’s young forwards depend on. Unless Dubnyk lays an egg this season–which I don’t think he will–the Wild will remain a tough opponent for the Avalanche.

Final thoughts:

Andi: They bought out Matt Cooke! Yippee!

AJ: I’m curious how many more times Patrick Roy can rile up the Minnesota media and get them to needlessly spend time focusing on him because that’s amusing to watch. Outside of that, I think both Colorado and Minnesota are a couple of middle-of-the-road quality teams with divergent styles and angry fan bases. It should be another fun year of people on both sides trying to pretend this isn’t a budding rivalry.