Analyzing Colorado's path to the Pac-12 title game

The 2020 Pac-12 Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket is set.

The tournament will tip off at noon local time on Wednesday at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The sixth-seeded Colorado Buffaloes will start their postseason run at 8:30 PT Wednesday.

Colorado missed out on its chance to earn a bye through the first round of the tournament but its path to the final isn’t as brutal as you’d expect for a No. 6 seed.

Here’s what is standing between Colorado and a Pac-12 Tournament title:

ROUND 1

9:30 p.m. (MST) Wed., March 11, Pac-12
vs. No. 11 Washington State

This matchup is set in stone.

Colorado will open Pac-12 Tournament play against the Washington State Cougars, and that’s about the best draw the Buffs could’ve asked for.

The Cougars are one of just two Pac-12 teams that didn’t earn a bye and also didn’t beat Colorado already this season. It’s worth noting that the Buffs and Cougars only played once but that game was held in Pullman, Wash.

Washington State’s star forward CJ Elleby is one of the best in the conference but he’ll likely line up across from Tyler Bey, who ranks a few notches higher on the totem pole.

It’s not a lock that the Buffs’ frontcourt will be able to tie him up though, as Elleby dropped 15 points 6-of-12 shooting against them earlier this season.

Washington State has beaten three of the Pac-12’s four highest-seeded teams this season, but all four wins have been at home. The Cougars were 1-3 in neutral-site games this season, losing to Omaha, Nebraska and Colorado State, and beating Old Dominion.

ROUND 2

9:30 p.m. (MST) Thu., March 12, FS1
vs. No. 3 Arizona State

If Colorado wins in the first round, its second-round opponent will be the Arizona State Sun Devils.

Of the four teams who earned byes in the conference tournament, it’s easy to make the case that Colorado matches up best with ASU. The Buffs have already beaten the Sun Devils twice this season and the average margin of victory was 8.5 points.

But the last time Colorado saw Arizona State was in mid-January and the Sun Devils aren’t the same team they were way back then.

After its last game against CU, ASU rattled off nine wins in 10 contests. Point guard Remy Martin pairs with Alonzo Verge to form one of the most dangerous backcourts in the Pac-12 and Romello White is the type of big man that could cause problems for CU, though the Buffs held him in check in the only game he was available for against Colorado.

Still, this is the ideal second-round matchup for CU, particularly since the Sun Devils have lost three of their last four.

SEMI-FINAL

9:30 p.m. (MST) Fri., March 13, FS1
vs. No. 2 UCLA, No. 7 Stanford or No. 10 California

The most-likely semi-finals opponent for the Buffs, should they make win their first two games, is UCLA.

The Bruins beat Colorado in both of the teams’ games this season, but neither matchup was out of hand at the end; the Buffs lost by four in Los Angeles and they were within three points with under a minute to go in Boulder.

There’s no denying that UCLA is scary when hot, but there’s a case to be made that three teams on the other side of the bracket (Oregon, Arizona and USC) are scarier than the Bruins.

Colorado could also take on Stanford, which it beat twice this season or California, which it split the season series with.

FINAL

8:30 p.m. (MST) Sat., March 14, FS1
vs. No. 1 Oregon, No. 4 USC, No. 5 Arizona, No. 8 Oregon State, No. 9 Utah or N0. 12 Washington

There are a half-dozen possibilities here and we aren’t going to spend too much space on them, but this will likely be the toughest game in a potential Colorado championship run.

Oregon was the league’s preseason No. 1, it’s the only Pac-12 team to be consistently ranked ahead of the Buffs this season and it is the top seed in the conference tournament. The Ducks are a tough team to beat, but Colorado already did that once and just about notched a series sweep before blowing a 14-point lead.

USC’s length could cause problems for CU, though the Buffs beat them in both contests this season.

Arizona beat Colorado in the lone matchup this season but has cooled off since going on a 6-of-7 tear in the middle of conference play. The Wildcats’ young talent took most of the season to gel but the team is one of the scariest in the league heading into March.

Even Washington, the bottom seed in the tournament, could give the Buffs fits. Freshman big man Isaiah Stewart will likely be a lottery pick in June’s NBA Draft and he’s been cooking recently. Two of the Huskies’ five conference wins came on the road this weekend against Arizona and Arizona State.

The biggest takeaway from this group of the Buffs’ potential Pac-12 title game is that CU is lucky they’re on the other side of the bracket.