How Colorado could still win the Pac-12 and other (more realistic) scenarios

UPDATE (Monday night): The Pac-12 announced a bunch more games.

Because of these new games, the scenarios below have changed. They’ll still give you a rough idea of what’s going on, but don’t forget to reference the new games when you take a look below. A new story with updated scenarios is on the way (maybe after a few more games have concluded to simplify things).

Here’s a new set of criteria for Colorado to become Pac-12 champs:

• Colorado: wins out… vs. USC, vs. UCLA, vs. Arizona State
• USC: at least two losses… vs. Oregon, @ Utah, vs. Stanford, @ UCLA
• UCLA: at least two losses… @ Utah, @ Oregon, vs. USC
• Oregon: at least three losses… @ Stanford, @ Cal, vs. Arizona, vs. UCLA, @ ASU, @ OSU

(Also: USC is beating Oregon 43-22 at halftime, as of this update.)

Colorado has more paths now, first of all because they can add one more win to their resume, but also because of the number of games teams are now supposed to play. 

• Colorado and USC: 20
• UCLA: 19
• Oregon: 18

If Colorado wins out, the Buffs will have the head-to-head tiebreaker over USC. Since UCLA and Oregon play fewer games than CU, the Buffs will have more wins than either team if they tie in the loss column. Not getting the second UCLA-Oregon matchup back on the schedule could be huge for Colorado.

 

BOULDER — We’ve made it to the final week of the Pac-12 season and… oh wait, there’s actually more.

The Pac-12 included an empty week at the end of the season to play games that had to be postponed due to COVID-19 over the past few months, and that empty week could be the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for the Colorado Buffaloes.

As it stands now (Monday afternoon), Colorado only has two games left on its schedule, giving them 19 total conference games this season instead of the 20 that were planned. A date with Arizona State in Boulder is the missing piece.

USC has a full 20 games on its schedule (including a match with Stanford listed on its website as “March 1-4, exact date TBD”).

Because of the difference in total number of games, it’s impossible for Colorado to tie USC in the conference standings. That’s a big deal, because a win over USC on Thursday would give Colorado the tiebreaker. Instead, Colorado needs

Colorado faces a similar scenario with Stanford, as the Cardinal have 20 games on the schedule. If Colorado splits the upcoming homestead and Stanford wins out, Colorado would finish 12-7, while the Cardinal would finish 13-7, giving it the slightest of edges. Given the current schedule, there’s no way that the tiebreaker Colorado holds over Stanford because of two head-to-head wins will come into play.

If we keep the same scenario, but add the ASU game to Colorado’s schedule (and assume the Buffs win), Colorado would finish 13-7 and would move in front of Stanford by way of the head-to-head tiebreaker.

Additionally, if the Buffs win out including a game against ASU, Colorado could pass USC if the Trojans lose three of their last five, including the game in Boulder.

As you can see, the uneven schedules are wildly impactful and that’s why what happens to the last week of the season matters.

As of now (still Monday afternoon), a few games are scheduled for the insurance week, including Oregon at Oregon State and the aforementioned game between Stanford and USC with the the exact date still to be determined.

But Oregon, which is currently scheduled to play 16 total conference games, only has that OSU game scheduled for Saturday of that week and is likely to add at least one more game earlier in the week.

Arizona State doesn’t have any games scheduled for the open week yet.

Odds are there will be more games added to the schedule, which will wildly change the math for Colorado down the stretch, but here are a few scenarios to pay attention to as the Pac-12 season wraps up.

No schedule changes, Colorado finishes first

Don’t get your hopes up… the odds are slim.

Assuming no changes to the schedule, here’s what CU needs:

• Colorado beats USC and UCLA at home
• UCLA loses all three of its other games
• USC loses three of its four other games
• Oregon loses three of four games

The criteria gets more specific when you dig into the schedules. For example, USC still has a game against UCLA on the schedule and UCLA needs to lose out in this scenario, so that game needs to be USC’s one remaining win. And since that’s USC’s one remaining win, the Trojans have to lose to Oregon Monday night. Since, Oregon has to win that game, they have to lose the rest.

Essentially, Colorado needs to hit a 10-way parlay:

• Mon, Feb. 22
  • Oregon wins at USC
• Thu, Feb. 25
  • Colorado wins vs. USC
  • Oregon loses at Stanford
  • UCLA loses at Utah
• Sat, Feb. 27
  • Colorado wins vs. UCLA
  • Oregon loses at Cal
  • USC loses at Utah
• Mon, March 1 – Thu, March 4 (exact date TBD)
  • USC loses at Stanford
• Sat, March 6
  • Oregon loses at Oregon State
  • USC wins at UCLA

Wish ’em luck.

Colorado plays ASU, wins the Pac-12

If Colorado gets ASU added to its schedule, odds are that there are other games added as well. All of the relevant games that could still be added include Oregon:

• vs. UCLA
• @ UCLA
• @ Arizona
• @ Arizona State

Let’s assume that none of those are added to the schedule, but the ASU @ Colorado game is added. Here’s how Colorado wins the conference:

• CU wins out
• UCLA loses both of… @ Utah, vs. USC
• USC loses two of… vs. Oregon, @ Utah, @ Stanford
• Oregon loses three of… @ USC, @ Stanford, @ Cal, @ Oregon State

Adding more games to Oregon’s schedule, and especially the games with UCLA, would open this path up.

Colorado doesn’t get a bye

Congrats Buffs fans, there’s a great chance that Colorado will get a bye in the Pac-12 Tournament for the first time since joining the conference.

Colorado’s odds are helped by the fact that a fifth team will get a bye this season. (Normally the No. 5 finisher plays the No. 12 finisher in the first round, but since Arizona doesn’t count this season due to a postseason band, there essentially isn’t a No. 12 finisher so No. 5 gets a free pass.)

If there are no changes to the schedule, Colorado has already locked up a bye.

For Colorado to drop to No. 6, here’s what would have to happen:

1. Colorado adds ASU to the schedule and loses all three remaining games
2. Oregon State wins at Cal, at Stanford, at Oregon and has a postponed game at Utah added to the schedule, which OSU also wins

That’s it. Unless Colorado plays 21 games this season, that’s the only way it winds up playing in round one of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Stanford passes Colorado for No. 4

While the path toward not having a bye is very unlikely, the path to a No. 5 finish rather than a No. 4 finish is much more realistic.

Practically, the difference between No. 4 and No. 5 is negligible. Those two teams both get byes through the first round and then will play each other in the second round. The higher seed would likely get to pick which end of the court to defend and which jersey to wear, but that stuff doesn’t matter.

What could matter to Colorado is finishing the top four of the Pac-12 for the first time ever, so here’s what could stop that from happening, if there are no schedule changes:

• Colorado loses one more game than Stanford the rest of the way

That’s it.

As it stands now, Colorado is 11-6, while Stanford is 10-7.

Colorado has two games scheduled (19 total games), while Stanford has three (20 total games). If the teams tie in the loss column, Stanford would finish with one more win and take the fourth seed.

For reference, Stanford has home games against Oregon and Oregon State remaining and a road game against Stanford on the way. If Stanford wins out, Colorado needs to win out. If Stanford drops one, Colorado can drop one. If Stanford drops two, Colorado is locked in to No. 4.

But things change if Colorado plays ASU. (No other game could be added that would affect this scenario.) Then, Stanford would need fewer total conference losses than CU to take No. 4.

If Stanford won all three of its games, Colorado could lose two of its three games and keep the No. 4 seed. If Stanford only won two of three, Colorado would have to lose all three to be surpassed.

The Oregon Question

All of this is fairly straightforward considering the circumstance, except for anything that includes Oregon.

Oregon has only played 12 games this season. With four remaining on the schedule, the Ducks would win the conference if they win out and UCLA loses one of its three remaining, assuming no schedule changes.

The worst the Ducks could finish with no schedule changes is fifth.

But if changes are made to the schedule, anything is on the table.

If all of the games are rescheduled (which is extremely, extremely unlikely since there are five that would need to be added), Oregon could be surpassed by anybody except Washington or Cal, at least in theory. Since Oregon has won five straight, it’s probably safe to say that nobody outside of the top five would come into play though.

Oregon could guarantee finishing ahead of Colorado by going 2-2 in its final four games, even if Colorado beats USC, UCLA and ASU to close out the season. But, for example, if Oregon added one more game and finished 2-3, the Buffs would have the edge (again assuming three more CU wins).

That said, whether the Ducks add opponents, and who exactly gets added, will play a huge part in deciding who wins the Pac-12, and what it would take to surpass them.