Five steps for the Broncos to beat the Raiders in the season-opener

ENGLEWOOD, Colo. — Beating the Raiders should be easy.

They only won six games last season. Most preseason power rankings project them outside of the league’s top 25 teams. They’re the second-least likely team to win their division, according to Vegas. Only four teams have worse odds of winning the Super Bowl.

But the Raiders have beaten the Broncos in six consecutive games, so Sunday will not be a gimme for the home team despite being 3.5-point favorites.

Broncos head coach Sean Payton will make his Denver debut against Josh McDaniels, the first of the nine coaches who have held the big job in Denver since Mike Shanahan’s 14-year run ended in 2008. In theory, the gameplan should be simple.

The Raiders have a three-headed monster in wide receiver Davante Adams, edge rusher Maxx Crosby and running back Josh Jacobs that is as talented as any other big three in the NFL. But the rest of the roster lacks support for the three stars. If you stop those three players, a win should follow.

Here’s how the Broncos can do it…

Double-team Maxx Crosby

Since entering the NFL, 26-year-old edge rusher Maxx Crosby has produced 11.5 sacks against the Denver Broncos, the most of any team he’s played. The second-most is only four.

If Crosby were to play the Broncos every game and keep up his 1.4 sack average for a full, 17-game season, he would set the NFL’s single-season sack record. In games against other NFL teams, Crosby has averaged .4 sacks per game. That’s a 7.5-sack pace over a 17-game season.

Crosby has dominated the Broncos, especially during the six-game losing streak, and that can’t happen again. That’s why the Broncos should build their game plan around not letting Crosby get to the quarterback.

Tight end Chris Manhertz was brought to Denver to block, and the Broncos will take advantage of his presence. He can line up next to a tackle often and help to double-team Crosby.

But one answer alone won’t be enough. The Broncos will need changeups, too.

The Broncos need changeups, too. Tight end Adam Trautman provides more of a receiving presence than Manhertz, and he can handle his share of the double-teams. Samaje Perine can help out from the backfield on occasion. The Broncos could slide their protection to help occasionally, too.

And I’d almost be tempted to let right tackle Mike McGlinchey take a share of the Crosby reps for himself. When the 49ers played the Raiders last December, Crosby beat McGlinchey for a couple of early pressures. Oone of them was a simple miscommunication that probably wasn’t his fault, and for the final 55 minutes of the game, McGlinchey handled Crosby well despite spending much of that time on an island.

But even if McGlinchey has shown he can hold up against Crosby, the Broncos shouldn’t take the risk. If Crosby doesn’t single-handedly ruin the Denver offense’s day, nobody else will. Denver should ensure Crosby doesn’t leave fingerprints on the game.

Put Pat on Davante

If you only saw the Broncos’ second game against the Raiders last season, you’d call me crazy for asking Pat Surtain II to follow Davante Adams all day on Sunday.

By Pro Football Focus’ count, Adams caught four of the five balls thrown his way when Surtain was in coverage, and he picked up 85 yards and two touchdowns on those plays. A TV camera caught Adams yelling, “he’s too young,” after one of the touchdowns. It was one of two poor performances from Surtain last season.

But don’t forget that Surtain won the first matchup with Adams earlier in the year, even if the Broncos didn’t win the game. Adams caught five of nine passes against Surtain. He picked up 59 yards. Only two of the catches produced first downs. Surtain didn’t shut Adams out, but he held him to 6.6 yards per target, which is below the league average passing efficiency.

This time around, I’d have Surtain follow Adams around the field, and I’d generally leave Justin Simmons to play deep center field to provide a little inside help. Surtain doesn’t need to lock down Adams totally; that’s nearly impossible. He just needs Sunday to bare more resesemblance to the first game last season than the second.

By betting on Surtain, the Broncos can use their defensive resources elsewhere.

Load the box early

Josh Jacobs is the engine behind the Raiders offense. When he gets going, Vegas is tough to stop.

Jacobs, the NFL’s leading rusher last season, hit the 100-yard mark six times in 2022. The Raiders won five of those games. (They only won six games all season.) Jacobs averaged 143.7 rushing yards and 1.3 touchdowns on 5.63 yards per carry in Raiders wins. In losses, he ran for 71.9 yards and less than half of a touchdown on 4.23 yards per carry.

Stopping Josh Jacobs is the key to stopping the Raider offense.

Unfortunately, the Broncos haven’t been able to slow Jacobs down since the Raiders drafted him in 2019. He has averaged more than 100 yards and more than a touchdown in seven games against the Broncos, and the Raiders have won all seven of those games. Since Jacobs joined the Raiders, they’ve scored 28.3 points per game against the Broncos and 19.1 points against the rest of the league.

So what should the Broncos do? Sell out to stop the run.

Denver should plan to run an eight-man box as much as possible. With Pat Surtain locking down one side of the field and Justin Simmons deep, they shouldn’t have to worry about getting burned for big gains in the passing game. They can afford extra tacklers in the box.

If the Broncos’ defense stops the run early and the offense puts a few points on the board, Denver’s lead could clear an easy path to the finish line. The Raiders will be forced to throw the ball more than they want, and the Broncos can back off their heavy boxes, taking pressure off of their defensive backs.

Use your best plays early

In a story published this week, ESPN’s Seth Wickersham wrote that Sean Payton’s assistants in New Orleans often begged him not to use up all his favorite plays at the beginning of games.

That shouldn’t be a concern this week.

The Broncos need a hot start, not only to force the Raiders to try to keep up through the air but also to build momentum for an offensive group that rarely found it last season. Payton should pick his favorite blocking concepts and route combinations early in the game, whatever he thinks will make his offensive line and quarterback most comfortable.

My early offensive recipe: Payton’s favorite quick and easy passes (slants to Courtland Sutton?), then Payton’s favorite runs (pull Quinn Meinerz or get Mike McGlinchey in space?), and then Payton’s favorite play-action passes (send Marvin Mims on a deep over?).

Payton builds the quick game better than just about any other coach in the league, and he’ll be able to generate some easy throws underneath for Russell Wilson. Getting the running game going is crucial, and if you can stretch the defense out wide with the passing game first, then creating running lanes will be much easier. Once the defense is worried about the run, the deep play-action shots should be available.

The Broncos offense shouldn’t need its best to beat the Raiders. Vegas has one Pro Bowl-caliber defender in Maxx Crosby, and none of their other defenders would start for the Broncos. If Denver punches first and proves that the Raider defense needs to defend every part of the field, they should be able to cruise the rest of the way.

Use the safeties

The Broncos won’t have nickel cornerback K’Waun Williams this week. Essang Bassey had a great preseason and will probably take his spot whenever the Raiders put three or more receivers on the field.

But Williams’ absence could make it easier for the Broncos to justify a fun package that might be one of their best this season: a big nickel group that includes Justin Simmons, Kareem Jackson and Caden Sterns on the field at the same time. The Broncos included Jackson and Sterns as co-starters across from Justin Simmons on their first depth chart of the regular season, a sign that they expect both to receive extensive work.

The Raiders will likely spend much of the game with two tight ends on the field. They brought in two-time Pro Bowler Austin Hooper this offseason and then drafted Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame a couple of months later when he slipped through the first round.

Both tight ends are better receivers than blockers, and giving the safeties the coverage responsibilities will make life easier for the linebackers.

The Denver Broncos will host the Raiders at Empower Field in Denver on Sunday at 2:25 p.m. MDT in the season-opener for both teams. The game will be broadcast on CBS.