Should the Broncos sign Dalvin Cook?

Four-time Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook is on the market and the Broncos are rumored to be interested.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has tied the Broncos to Cook. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport named the Broncos one of the team’s to watch. As of Monday morning, the Broncos have the second-best chances of landing Cook, according to DraftKings Sportsbook.

So why would the Broncos be interested? Simply put, the Broncos struggled to create big plays in the running game last season, and Cook has proven himself to be one of the NFL’s best home-run-hitting backs.

The Broncos scored two rushing touchdowns of 10 or more yards last season; Latavius Murray’s 10-yarder against the Cardinals, and a 16-yard scramble by Russell Wilson in Kansas City. Cook scored from 61 yards out and 80 yards out last season, and his 10 touchdowns in 2022 averaged 24 yards.

A potential marriage between the Broncos and Cook is complicated. Denver has two good backs on its roster and has already spent more money on free agents than any other NFL team this offseason. Cook might want too many touches or too much money. And he isn’t a perfect player, of course, otherwise the Vikings wouldn’t have released him with three years left on his contract.

The big question with Cook is how much tread is left on his tires. He’ll turn 28 before the season starts. He’s already played six years in the NFL, which is a common dropoff point for running backs. And some of his stats took a hit last season, although he still posted his fourth consecutive season with at least 1,383 yards from scrimmage and earned his fourth-consecutive playoff appearance.

I re-watched four of Cook’s games from the past two seasons to try to figure out what he has left in the tank. We’ll start with the first one.

Back in December of 2021, Dalvin Cook put together a monster, 205-yard rushing performance in Pittsburgh, arguably the best performance of his career. Cook’s powers were on full display.

The Florida State alum is a speed back. He’s trying to get to the end zone on every play and if he can get a step on a defender in open space, that defender won’t catch up. But Cook’s vision is what opens up the running lanes and allows his speed to shine.

While most speed backs are at their best out of the shotgun where there’s plenty of space, Cook is at his best on outside runs in heavy formations. Each additional blocker—a tight end or fullback—is one more pawn that Cook gets to use as he sets up defenders and picks a running lane. He sprints hard to the boundary and when one or two defenders overpursue, Cook cuts back through the gap that opens up. If nobody overpursues, Cook is probably going to win the race to the edge… and then half the defense will overpursue on the next play.

Cook battered the Steelers for 27 carries. There was no answer. He stretched the defense wide then pierced it over and over and over again.

Watch that game and you’ll beg the Broncos to spend whatever it takes to get Dalvin Cook to Denver.

The second game I watched was Cook’s 96-yard performance against the Lions in Week 3 of last season. I wanted to see what he looked like at the start of the year compared to the end of the year.

Cook didn’t break any big runs but he ground a weak Lions defense down and hit it with a consistent 5.7 yards per carry. He looked good, maybe even great. But the story of Cook’s night was a fumble in the final minute of the third quarter with his team down 10 in Detroit territory and fighting to come back. Cook didn’t see the field in the final quarter of the game.

Over the past four seasons, Cook’s fumble numbers have ticked up. In that time, his 16 fumbles are tied with Melvin Gordon for the most among NFL running backs. The fumbles became a point of contention among Minnesota fans. For what it’s worth, Cook is second in carries in that timeframe, so maybe you could justify him ranking near the top.

Speaking of all those carries, Cook had the second most of his career last season, so I wondered if he slowed down over the course of the year.

Here are some stats:

First half of the season: 608 rushing yards, 119 receiving yards, 4.64 yards per carry

Second half of the season: 446 rushing yards, 149 receiving yards, 3.75 yards per carry

(I threw out the middle game to keep the numbers even.)

There’s a clear drop-off in the second half of the year, and that’s worth keeping in mind. Maybe he hit the wall halfway through the year and is no longer the Dalvin Cook we remember. Maybe he wore down and better conditioning could solve the problem in 2023. Maybe the shoulder that was surgically repaired after the season was holding him back. Maybe that shoulder—which he first tore up in college and has since torn, dislocated and sprained time and time again—will hold him back going forward.

Who knows. This is why 28-year-old backs are a gamble.

I rewatched the Vikings’ 33-point comeback against the Colts in Week 16. Cook had 95 rushing yards and 95 receiving yards.

Cook started it in his classic boom-or-bust style. His first carry went for 40 yards. On the next play he fumbled. He also had a 19-yarder, but 10 of his 17 carries went for four yards or less.

Here’s why that’s normal for Cook: He led the NFL in carries that resulted in lost yards. He finished 33rd out of 42 running backs in success rate, which is a Football Outsiders stat that deems a run successful or unsuccessful based on down and distance.

The busts might hurt, but the booms might help a team complete the largest comeback in NFL history, which they did on that day.

FIRST PLAY. DALVIN COOK. 64 YARDS. TOUCHDOWN.

📺: #INDvsMIN on @NFLNetwork 
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/NLM9jAlP4R pic.twitter.com/zEBweG6YQm

— NFL (@NFL) December 17, 2022

The last game I watched was the last game Cook played, the Vikings’ Wild Card loss to the Giants. The booms weren’t there for Cook, primarily because the Giants filled up running lanes perfectly. But Minnesota was trying to run Cook up the middle instead of letting him stretch the defense, a confusing decision.

And Cook bares some of the blame as well. I’m no mind reader, but it looked like he was trying to cut upfield quickly to avoid negative plays. The patience that made him so great for so long just wasn’t there. Cook finished with 60 yards on 15 carries.

So what is Cook now?

He’s lost a half-step of speed, but he’s still plenty fast enough to provide big plays.

He’s lost a significant amount of his ability to break tackles. He provided 2.4 yards after contact per attempt in his first two Pro Bowl seasons and 1.8 yards last season. That drop-off cost him 158 rushing yards last year.

Despite losing some power, Cook still forced 52 missed tackles in 2022 thanks to his shiftiness. That was the eighth-most in the NFL. He was always more elusive than strong anyway.

His vision is still intact, even if he lost some of his rhythm late in the year.

He’s a big play threat in the passing game, thanks more to his after-the-catch ability than his pre-catch technique.

And his health is a question mark. How much did it slow him down last year? How much could it improve next year? Should you really trust a running back to become healthier at 28?

Combine all of that and you get a productive back, but not one that’s worth $10 million per year, which is why the Vikings couldn’t find a trade partner. Cook says he wants his salary to be more than $5 million, which is probably reasonable but a steep price.

The Broncos would have a clear upgrade on their second running back spot if they add Cook. Given Javonte Williams is returning from a torn ACL—which means he might not be ready for the start of the season and might not be himself at any point this season—investing heavily in a second running back might be a good idea.

Honestly, the schematic fit isn’t that big of a deal thanks to Sean Payton; give one of the NFL’s greatest offensive minds talent and he’ll find a way to make it work. Cook has only played in a wide-zone running system in the NFL, but Payton has typically run a fairly balanced, but zone-leaning, system. You could get caught up in the details, but I have no concerns since Payton is running the show.

Cook might also fit well in the “Joker” role that Alvin Kamara, Reggie Bush and Darren Sproles thrived in as receiving backs. I still believe Cook is at his best running stretches and sweeps out of heavy personnel, but the transition to a third-down-oriented role might be for the best at this point in his career.

And the elephant is the room is the five elephant-sized men the Broncos have assembled to hold down their offensive line. Cook’s bust rate was too high last year, but an upgraded offensive line could revive it. A speedy home-run hitter is a perfect fit behind a line that should be opening up massive holes.

In a lot of ways, bringing in Cook could be reminiscent of the Broncos’ decision to bring in Jamaal Charles in 2017. Both are speedy big-play backs who had a handful of dominant seasons with peaks above 1,500 rushing yards. The difference, and it’s a big one, is that Charles was 31 years old and two years removed from success. The odds of Cook hitting are much, much better than Charles’ were.

And, sadly, the Broncos’ offense is still lacking explosive plays just like it was back in 2017.

Giving Cook the money he wants—and deserves—is probably a bad idea. The smart move is to let somebody else take the gamble.

But if the Broncos decide to sign Cook, don’t bet against him posting his fifth-consecutive Pro Bowl and fifth-consecutive 1,100-yard rushing season.

Here’s my offer: 1 year, $4.5 million fully guaranteed, another million for 1,250 scrimmage yards, another million for a Pro Bowl, another million for a playoff appearance, and another million for a playoff win. That’s up to $8.5 million if the Broncos have a great season and Cook is a big reason why.

The individual incentives should be appealing since he’s hit those marks for four-straight years. Scrimmage yards help him, in case Sean Payton gives him bulky receiving duties. The team incentives insure against a meltdown if Javonte Williams takes over a bell-cow role.

I think Cook will find a better option, and that might be for the best.