Seven contracts the Broncos should offer before unrestricted free agency begins | The Ride

We’re less than three weeks away from the start of free agency… so what do the Broncos need to get done between now and then?

I picked out seven of the Broncos’ unrestricted free agents that I would try to extend before they hit the open market. The numbers I chose are essentially the maximum I would offer, so in theory George Paton & Co. could try to snag a deal before settling for the red line amount I chose.

Most of these offers are small. That isn’t because I think these players are worth what I’m offering, it’s because I’m willing to part ways and replace a couple of the Broncos’ biggest-name free agents. It’s nothing personal, but sometimes turnover is a good thing. And especially after a five-win season, I’d err on the side of moving on to soon rather than holding on too long.

Here are seven contracts I’d offer to the Broncos’ unrestricted free agents to either try to lock them up before they hit the market, or leave on the table in case their market doesn’t materialize as expected…

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DE Dre’Mont Jones
1 year, $14 million (fully guaranteed) or 3 years, $39 million ($32m guaranteed)

The 26-year-old defensive lineman is the Broncos’ premier free agent, and he puts Denver in a tough position.

Jones led the Broncos with 6.5 sacks and nine tackles for loss this season. When he had 5.5 sacks through eight games and was coming off of AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors, Jones appeared to be heading toward a deal that would pay him nearly $20 million per year. But Jones only had one more sack the rest of the season (his only sack after Bradley Chubb left town) and missed the final four games with an injury.

So where does that leave Jones? It’s tough to say.

PFF expects Jones to wind up with a $14.5 million per year contract. Up until last week, Spotrac projected Jones’ market value to be a little over $7 million per year, but recently updated that number to $17.1 million.

There’s no doubt that Jones is a valuable player—he’s proven that he’ll provide about six sacks per season—but how much further can he climb?

A $17 million per year salary would make him one of the nine highest-paid interior pass rushers in the league. The Broncos might be better off investing a couple more dollars and trying to Daron Payne or Javon Hargrave, both of whom play a similar role to Jones and had 11+ sacks this season.

Or maybe the Broncos should invest somewhere other than the defensive line. $17 million would give them their pick of the guards on the market with money to spare. It won’t land Orlando Brown, the top tackle on the market, but it would get the Broncos in the running for any of the rest of the tackles.

Given his upside, Jones is probably worth more than $15 million per season, but if I was running the Broncos I’d look elsewhere… unless Jones’ market takes a hit because of his slow finish in 2022.

If he wants a one-year prove-it deal for under $15 million, I’d be all in. Or, if he’s looking for long-term security, I’d give him just $13 million per year for three seasons with a big guarantee. I’d probably throw a player option into the last year of the deal, too.

I don’t think Jones would accept either offer. I think a desperate team with a lot of cap space like the Bears or Texans will offer big money to him. But I’d be more than willing to give him a fall-back plan before free agency opens, and keep the offer open until I’m out of cap space or have a replacement.

LG Dalton Risner
2 years, $17 million ($12m guaranteed)

Like Jones, Risner is probably going to get more money on the open market than I’d be willing to offer. Still, I’d let Risner know that this deal is on the table if he wants it… at least until the Broncos have signed a new guard or circumstances otherwise change.

The Broncos’ offensive line didn’t live up to standards last season and is in need of a revamp. Moving on from Risner is one of the easiest ways to shake things up. Change for the sake of change is dangerous, but rolling the dice on a different front five is probably worth the risk.

The problem is that the Broncos will struggle to upgrade at right guard. Risner will be a top-five interior offensive lineman on the market at a bare minimum and PFF has him ranked as No. 3. The Eagles’ Isaac Seumalo is probably the best available option, but he’d only appeared in 12 games in the two years before his 2022 campaign.

Regardless, I wouldn’t break the bank to keep Risner in Denver. 80% of the NFL is trying to upgrade its offensive line and prices for linemen are inflated. Don’t forget that the Broncos gave $44 million over four years to Graham Glasgow, who was previously a part-time starter in Detroit. And don’t forget that in the three years since, the salary cap has increased by almost 15%.

Risner is a serviceable offensive lineman who is particularly good in pass protection and if the Broncos can keep him around for cheap, a new offensive line coach may unlock another level for him. An eight-figure salary is probably on the way, though.

LB Alex Singleton
2 years, $9.5 million ($6m guaranteed)

Singleton played the best ball of his career in his first season in Denver. He cut his missed tackle rate in half and held opposing passers under a 100 passer rating when targeting him for the first time in his career. He also set a career best with 163 tackles, his third consecutive season with at least 100.

Denver needs to invest in its offense, but they’d have a hole at linebacker as of right now. By bringing back Singleton, the Broncos could have a low-cost, proven solution to that problem. The decision is a no-brainer.

Denver could have competition from Carolina, since former defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero and former linebackers coach Peter Hansen both joined the Panthers this season. If the Broncos offer Singleton just under $10 million for two years, he’d probably jump at the opportunity. He wants to stay in Denver and has $3 million in NFL earnings since first entering the league in 2015. Guarantee double that amount and the deal should be easy.

RB Latavius Murray
1 year, $1.5 million plus $1.5m in incentives ($250k guaranteed)

The 33-year-old stepped into the Broncos’ backfield and took control midway through the 2022 season. He started slow, but his 5.2 yards per carry average in the last five weeks of the season brought his season average close to the league’s median.

The Broncos don’t have much for running backs on the roster, and Javonte Williams’ major knee injury is the elephant in the room. The Broncos could be in on some of the big names in this free-agent class—e.g. Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders—or they could add a couple of lower-tier backs instead.

The bottom line is that the running backs room will probably have the most turnover on the roster this season, and that means committing to Murray before free agency begins could be a bad idea.

Still, Murray is a leader in the room and can bridge the gap between the players and new coach Sean Payton, who Murray played for in New Orleans. Give him a 50% raise to $1.5 million and add some bonuses if he contributes like he did last season. But Denver needs to make sure they can get out of the deal on cut day if, for example, they land a big-name back, draft a rookie and Chase Edmonds takes a pay cut.

If the small guarantee is a deal-breaker for Murray, circle back after the draft if there’s still room on the roster.

DL DeShawn Williams
2 years, $8.5 million ($4.5m guaranteed)

Since I’m not extending a massive contract offer to Dre’Mont Jones, bringing back Williams is a must.

The 30-year-old defensive lineman is coming off the best season of his career, during which he provided 4.5 sacks, more than the rest of his career combined. Like Alex Singleton, Williams is more than solid as a starter in the NFL and can probably had for fairly cheap, so the team can invest more money on the offensive side of the ball.

With Williams, D.J. Jones, Mike Purcell and Matt Henningsen in tow, the Broncos will have a solid top layer of defensive linemen, with Jonathan Harris and (hopefully) Eyioma Uwazarike providing good enough depth.

S Kareem Jackson
1 year, $2 million ($300k guaranteed)

Some big-name options will be available for the Broncos if they want to go pursue an elite partner for Justin Simmons this offseason. Otherwise, keeping Jackson around isn’t a bad idea.

The 12-year veteran wasn’t quite himself in 2022, but he wasn’t a major liability either. His closing speed ticked down a notch but he fulfilled his duties at a league-average level and set a new career high with 94 tackles. Still, he’ll turn 35 before the season starts and the Broncos should expect him to lose another step in 2023.

But keeping him at the same salary as last season, but lowering the guarantees this time around is probably a good idea. Denver only has so many assets, and keeping a safeties room of Jackson, Justin Simmons, Caden Sterns and PJ Locke should be enough to get the job done. Sterns is probably the starter opposite Simmons but an injury-plagued 2022 campaign means insurance should be a priority. Jackson can provide that and some veteran experience. Assuming the Broncos start Damarri Mathis opposite Pat Surtain and move on from Ronald Darby, keeping an extra second who can provide insurance in the slot is a good idea.

And if the Broncos find a safety they like in the draft, they can move on from Jackson with little dead cap.

OT Cam Fleming
1 year, $2 million ($500k guaranteed)

Fleming got off to a hot start to the season when he filled in at right tackle for Billy Turner for the first few weeks. In fact, he was the headliner of our Week 1 game grades. But when he moved to left tackle after Garett Bolles broke his leg, the results were sub-par at best.

At 30 years old, Fleming should have a couple more good years in the tank and would be a solid depth piece. Plus, he could provide insurance if the Broncos can’t find a starter at right tackle. Although that position should be a priority, if the Broncos replace some combination of Dalton Risner, Garett Bolles and Lloyd Cushenberry instead, then Fleming could provide stiff competition for a rookie.