21 predictions for Colorado’s 2021-22 basketball season

BOULDER — Basketball season is almost underway!

With the season set to tip off on Tuesday, I’m laying out 21 predictions ahead of the 2021-22 season. Some are bold. Some aren’t. Some are happy. Some are sad.

Here’s what’s about to go down:

1. Colorado will start 3-0
   Colorado opens the season against Montana State, New Mexico and Maine.Simply put: Colorado is so much more talented than these teams, that it should be able to avoid an early loss even with so many new faces. Especially at home.
   
2. Jabari Walker will not declare for the draft
   As of right now, sophomore forward Jabari Walker is viewed as a fringe first-round selection in June’s NBA Draft. Those rankings, of course, don’t mean all that much until at least halfway through the season, but they show that the league is tuned in to see what Walker can do.But he’s a double-jumper and he doesn’t have out-of-the-gym athleticism. He isn’t doomed, but he has plenty more to prove this season.
   Unless Walker avoids foul trouble, bulks up and continues his otherworldly efficiency from deep, he’ll likely take the Tyler Bey route and stay for a third season in Boulder.
3. The Buffs will split their early-season conference games
   As part of the Pac-12’s 20-game conference schedule, each team plays two games against conference opponents in early December.This year, Colorado drew Stanford at home and a road game against UCLA.Colorado’s young squad will be more comfortable at home than on the road, and Stanford doesn’t have the talent—namely Oscar da Silva—that it had a year ago. That’s a win.

   A road trip to play a veteran team that missed playing in the national semifinal by a half-court buzzer beater is a very different conversation. It’s tough to find a way for Colorado to win at Paulette Pavilion.

4. Colorado will finish second at Paradise Jam
   Head’s up: You aren’t going to like what I’m about to say…Colorado’s path to the final when they head to the U.S. Virgin Islands in a couple of weeks is fairly simple. The Buffs have to beat Southern Illinois in the first round, then the winner of Duquesne and Northeastern. Neither of these games is a guarantee for a young team playing it’s first real games outside of Boulder, but they should be favored.In the title game though, the Buffs would likely face either Creighton… or the Colorado State Rams.

   The Rams are good this year and this would be their only shot at CU. They’ve got a veteran team that knows this rivalry well.

   This season won’t be all sunshine and rainbows for Colorado and the final game of Paradise Jam will be one of the reasons why.

5. CU fans will pack the gym for the Kansas game
   On a brighter note, Colorado fans will fend off the hordes of Kansas fans who will try to gain entry to the CU Events Center when the Buffs host the Jayhawks in late December. The crowd will be at least 3:1 Colorado fans.
   
6. Elijah Parquet will lead the team in minutes
   There’s a perfect storm that will force Elijah Parquet to the top of the minutes played chart by the end of the season. First off, he’s a veteran guard whose 3&D game should keep him out of the doghouse; he won’t be benched for poor performance.The other senior on the team, Evan Battey, is a big man and foul trouble will cost him minutes at various points throughout the season. Throw in the fact that head coach Tad Boyle will want to emphasize stability next to CU’s young point guards and it’s a virtual guarantee that Parquet will lead the team in playing time this season.
   
7. Colorado will upset Tennessee
   This one might be bold.Alright, it’s really bold. But Colorado has a great record at home against Top 25 teams and a great home record in general. They were 11-1 at home while splitting their road games evenly. Yes, the Volunteers are incredibly talented. That’s why they’re ranked 18th in the country. But their best player figures to be a freshman point guard, and you just know that Parquet will have that game circled on the schedule. He’ll be the catalyst here.
8. Remy Martin will struggle
   The logic here is similar to above. Parquet has this game circled on the calendar and I’m never betting against him in those circumstances.Plus, when has Remy Martin ever done anything against CU?I’m unwilling to call another upset, but who knows. Maybe Martin’s struggles will give the Buffs a chance to make a late run.
9. Tristan da Silva will lead the team in scoring
   This is another prediction that feels fairly bold, but I’m not here to tell you that water is wet. Tristan da Silva converted on more than 50% of his shots as a true freshman last season and he’s the favorite to be labeled the team’s hardest-working player when Battey leaves after this season. I like that combination, and I like the fact that he’s a 6-foot-10 wing who should be able to get his shot of against virtually any of the competition he’ll face this season. With so much youth on the team, there will be points where the Buffs rely on one player late in the shot clock to find a bucket. Keeshawn Barthelemy and da Silva are at the top of the list of candidates.Give me da Silva to lead the team in scoring and he’s a sneaky pick to make an all-conference team, too. ?
10. Colorado will struggle from deep
    I’m not going to come up with a number here. I’m keeping it simple: Colorado will struggle from deep and we’ll know it when we see it.CU didn’t shoot well in two exhibitions and maybe I’m putting too much stock into those but, at least for now, I’m a little nervous about what the 3-point shooting will look like this year.Barthelemy has a great stroke and he should be good for at least one or two per game, but he doesn’t seem like a shooter who is focused on efficiency. He’s more of the Damian Lillard type, meaning that if they’re falling he’s just going to chuck up more of them until they stop.

    That’s not a bad thing but when he goes dry the team could suffer… if nobody else steps up.

11. Javon Ruffin will redshirt
    It just makes too much sense.Boyle has mentioned that a redshirt season is possible for the freshman guard, but nothing official has come down the pipe. With three point guards and a couple of shooting guards in front of him on the depth chart, why not take a year to acclimate?

    An offseason injury that kept him out of workouts doesn’t help matters.

12. Colorado will lose its first five road games
    This one is dark. And it’s probably wrong.But if somebody gave me five to one odds right now, I’d take that bet.

    With no non-conference road games—Paradise Jam, of course, is a neutral site—this how Colorado will open it’s road schedule:
    @ UCLA
    @ Oregon
    @ Oregon State
    @ Arizona
    @ Arizona State

    I’m tempted to say they’ll beat ASU, but I’m going to be dramatic instead.

    On the bright side…

13. The Buffs will finish with a six-game winning streak
    Colorado will be better at the end of the season than they are at the start. Much better.And the difference between their road winning percentage and home will be massive.So we’re going bold here:
    vs. Utah
    @ Cal
    @ Stanford
    vs. Arizona State
    vs. Arizona
    @ Utah

    All wins.

    The NorCal teams are bad.

    Utah is bad.

    Arizona scares me a little, but it’s at home. And..

14. K.J. Simpson gets revenge on Arizona in Boulder
    K.J. Simpson was committed to the Wildcats before flipping to CU.Simpson wants revenge. And he’ll be ready to get it by the end of the season.
15. K.J. Simpson will make the Pac-12 All-Freshman Team
    Colorado has a couple of candidates for the conference all-freshman team. It was a close call in my mind between Simpson and center Lawson Lovering, but the top of the Pac-12’s freshman class is packed with big men, so Simpson gets the nod because there’s less competition.Simpson will be a jolt of energy off the bench, with the ability to playmake or get points of his own. The late-season game against Arizona will be the highlight of his resume.
16. Keeshawn Barthelemy will start the full season at PG
    Despite Simpson’s success, he’ll never take Barthelemy’s starting job.Barthelemy will have his lows throughout the course of the year, but they won’t be low enough to warrant a benching.Especially after he sets a season-high of 26 points.
17. Colorado will make the NCAA Tournament
    It’s probably 50-50 that Colorado makes the tournament. If you think think the odds are worse, I really can’t blame you.But I’ve gotta pick a side and I’m saying they make it. Mostly because of what’s written above.

    If the Buffs can start hot, beat Tennessee and finish with a bunch of wins, they’ll probably be in. If Simpson is an all-freshman performer and da Silva puts up big points, then how could they not be in?

18. Evan Battey will become a 3-point threat
    Evan Battey has the green light to shoot 3-pointers.To this point in his career, they haven’t gone in the basket.

    That’s about to change.

    Battey will shoot at least 36% from 3 this season. Book it.

19. Colorado will win two Pac-12 Tournament games
    I don’t think the Buffs will be able to secure a second-straight bye in the Pac-12 Tournament, by finishing in the top four in the regular season.I do think they’ll be playing really good ball by the end of the year and they’ll make a run to the conference semifinal.
20. The Events Center will be packed
    Colorado might not set attendance records this season, but it’ll come really close.Fan support, especially from students, has been through the roof during football season. Last year’s freshmen weren’t able to experience college football for the first time because of the pandemic. Everybody else missed being in Folsom.

    The crowds early in the year were massive. And since they were massive, people had fun. And since people had fun, they came back and had more fun.

    The same effect is on the way for the basketball team.

21. People will lose it on Senior DayIt’s Evan Battey.